PGA DFS Picks - Expert Survey: Hero World Challenge

Hero World Challenge

Who is your favorite golfer for optimal lineups?

Notorious: Jon Rahm
STLCardinals84: Jon Rahm

Who is your favorite golfer for large field contests?

Notorious: Matt Fitzpatrick
STLCardinals84: Cameron Young

Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?

Notorious: Tom Kim
STLCardinals84: Max Homa

Which golfer are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Cameron Young
STLCardinals84: Scottie Scheffler

Which high-priced golfer will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?

Notorious: Xander Schauffele
STLCardinals84: Viktor Hovland

What type of golfers are you targeting most? (ie: bomber, short game specialist)

Notorious: All-Around
STLCardinals84: Ball Striker

Which statistic other than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are you weighing most?

Notorious: SG: Approach
STLCardinals84: SG: Approach

Predict the top three finishers of the event.

Notorious: 1. Burns 2. Rahm 3. Thomas
STLCardinals84: 1. Rahm 2. Schauffele 3. Young

Predict the winning score of the week (e.g., E, -5, -10).

Notorious: -19
STLCardinals84: -18

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: There are only 20 golfers in the field and the pricing is very soft. The best way to differentiate might not be to fade the good plays that are underpriced but to leave a lot of salary cap on the table. The natural movement of a DFS player is to maximize every dollar of the cap, so I don’t expect many to leave more than $200-$300 on the table. In large-field tournaments, it is definitely viable to leave $1,000+ on the table, especially if you are playing the chalk.

STLCardinals84: This is a random exhibition event with 20 golfers in the first week of December. There are no real trends or stats that predict success in this event. Your best bet in GPP formats is to go with some of the golfers that will be lower owned given the unpredictable nature of it. Otherwise, if you’re into the stats, this is a tournament where we often see low scores and plenty of birdies. Pricing also seems softer this year, so leaving some salary on the table might be an interesting GPP angle.

Who is your top contrarian golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Matt Fitzpatrick – I expect most to go with the stars and scrubs approach this week because the scrubs are the likes of Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, and Tom Kim. The mid-range will likely get overlooked, meaning Fitzpatrick should fly under the radar. He’s been one of the best golfers in the world this year, he picked up his first major win, and he comes into the event in good form. He’s posted two top five finishes in his last five starts.

STLCardinals84: Sam Burns – This is a relative question because all but four golfers are going to be at least 20% owned per our projections. Burns is one of the lowest owned of the remaining bunch, and we know that he can get hot and make birdies on easier courses. His short game has been strong of late, too, so I like the potential upside if he keeps it straight off the tee.

Who is your top overall golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Jon Rahm – This is a golfer that you do not want to fade when he’s in good form. In his last four starts worldwide, he has finished first, fourth, first, and second. When he’s at his best, there may not be another golfer in the planet that can beat him (with the potential exception of Rory McIlroy). On top of the amazing form, he has clearly taken a liking to this golf course. In two appearances here, he’s finished first and second.

STLCardinals84: Jon Rahm – In terms of his overall talent combined with his creativeness, Rahm is the class of this field. He fits well in an event like this, he’s playing extremely well right now, and he won this event the last time he played here two years ago. He’s your pick at the top.

What is your hot take of the week?

Notorious: I had a change of heart, Justin Thomas posts a top three finish.

STLCardinals84: Scottie Scheffler finishes outside of the top 10.

Image Credit: Imagn