PGA DFS GPP Breakdown: WM Phoenix Open
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, breaks down his top PGA DFS picks in various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Which golfers should you be targeting to try and take down the big DFS tournaments? Find out below!
Welcome back, PGA DFS Grinders! We have a fun event in the desert this week, as the always popular Waste Management Phoenix Open rolls into TPC Scottsdale. We have just the one course on the docket this week for the first time in a few weeks, which means we will have shot-by-shot data from the PGA Tour for the full tournament. That’s always a plus for those who like distractions during their Thursdays and Fridays. We also don’t have a Pro-Am, which is definitely welcomed after some of the events we have seen so far in 2024. It’s also a plus after last week’s tournament was shortened to just three rounds due to weather.
As for this event, TPC Scottsdale plays the usual role of host, and fans should be back out in full force in 2023. That’s important, as the crowd is always a factor at this tournament. (For those who are unaware and may be new to the golf scene, spend some time watching highlight clips of the famous 16th hole). TPC Scottsdale is a short par 71 layout, but it isn’t a tight, tree-lined course like many shorter layouts that play host to PGA Tour events. This course is a bit open, and it does allow players to be aggressive with the driver. This is a first and second shot golf course, and an elite short game is not a prerequisite for success. Many underwhelming putters have had success here. As such, I will be looking almost exclusively at tee to green data for this event, with birdie or better percentage and ball striking being the primary statistical metrics pinging my radar. We also have an extra par four this week with the par 71 layout, so par four scoring gets an extra bump as well. While one of the par fours (Hole 17) is drive-able, the others all measure between 410 and 495 yards from the tips. This will also place an emphasis on the 150-175 yard approach range.
This is also a tournament where we have often seen the cream rise to the top of the leaderboard. Over the last nine editions of this event, here are the golfers that have finishes as winner or runner-up: Hideki Matsuyama (x3), Rickie Fowler (x2), Webb Simpson (x2), Brooks Koepka (x2), Scottie Scheffler (x2), Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Gary Woodland, Chez Reavie, K.H. Lee, Nick Taylor, and Branden Grace. Those are some really strong golfers in that mix, and Fowler, Reavie, Simpson, Grace, and Woodland were all playing better golf when they had their top finishes here. This all helps make for a drama-filled Sunday leading up to the big NFL game, and we can expect the ball strikers to pepper the top of the leaderboard.
Let’s take a look at some of my favorite GPP options for the event!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel GPP Breakdown for the WM Phoenix Open
Justin Thomas
DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $11,900
Yahoo: $36
It’s pretty clear that Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in this field by a decent margin, but he’s also priced as such. Scheffler is priced $1,600 above Justin Thomas on DK and $600 above Thomas on FD, and that’s quite a salary differential. I said last week that I am fully on board with the Justin Thomas resurgence in 2024, and he has made that count so far with two top six finishes to start the year. His all-around game has been great, and he has a fantastic history at this tournament with five consecutive top 15 finishes. He has gained more than 50 strokes over the field average in those appearances. Yes, please!
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