PGA DFS Tournament Breakdown: Masters
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, breaks down his top PGA DFS tournament picks in various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Masters. Which golfers should you be targeting to try and take down the big DFS tournaments? Find out below!
We have arrived at the first full week of April, which means only one thing…it’s Masters week! With MLB also in full swing and the NBA/NHL playoffs around the corner, there’s never been a better time to be a DFS player. Let’s all win some money here this month, and this golf tournament would be a great place to start that endeavor with all of the big prize pools that are up for grabs.
As usual, the first major of the season contains a somewhat limited field. We have a field of 91 golfers assembled for this tournament, which is in the ballpark of the usual field size. Given the pageantry around this event, we all know about Augusta National Golf Club. This layout will test every aspect of a golfer’s game. From trees to hazards to speedy, difficult greens to narrow landing areas, every weakness will be exposed by this course.
I am much more inclined to value course history at Augusta, though current form is also a major factor. I’m not going to blindly turn to course history at the expense of every statistical measure, but experience has a lot of value here. How will the LIV golfers fare this year? Are Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa healthy? What is wrong with Scottie Scheffler right now? There are plenty of fun storylines to follow.
As for the types of golfers to target for DFS, when all-around ability comes into play, it’s easy to look at Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Ball Striking as key metrics. However, one’s short game and Bogey Avoidance can be mixed in on this difficult course. Driving Distance and Par 5 Scoring are also key, as the par 5s are by far the easiest scoring holes on this course, and length is a huge benefit on a course that doesn’t have massive amounts of rough.
Thanks to the smaller field, it’s worth noting that the cut rule at the Masters is that the top 50 and ties make the weekend. In addition, there are also some amateurs, past champions, and older golfers in the mix, and many of those players are already unlikely to make the cut. I say this to emphasize that the majority of the good golfers will likely make the cut. Getting all 6 of your golfers to the weekend is paramount in a tournament where a good majority of players will survive to play 4 days.
Let’s move along to some of my favorite tournament picks!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Tournament Breakdown for the Masters
Jon Rahm
DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $11,900
It’s easy for us to forget about the LIV Tour golfers these days, because their tour is not highly publicized, doesn’t air on major television outlets, and good performances are often dismissed because of the weaker fields. However, it’s impossible to completely ignore what Rahm is doing right now. He’s largely dominating the LIV circuit, as he has finished inside the top 5 in every single event that has been played this year. He has a win, a 5th-place finish, and a trio of runner-ups. That’s hard to accomplish even in “easier” events. His Strokes Gained data compared to the rest of the golfers is phenomenal, even when adjusting for field strength. We know he’s long enough off the tee. We know he loves playing in the majors. We know he is a past Masters champion and has made the cut all 9 times he has played at Augusta. With question marks surrounding a lot of the other top golfers that regularly play on the PGA TOUR, Rahm is my favorite starting point for rosters.
Cameron Young
DraftKings: $9,200
FanDuel: $10,800
His breakthrough at THE PLAYERS Championship a month ago could be the launching pad for Young’s career. He has now finished 7th, 3rd, and 1st in his last 3 events. He has a pair of top-10s already at the Masters, and we know his length will be an advantage. Over the last 36 rounds, Young ranks 5th in Total Driving, 4th in Good Drive Percentage, and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. The rest of his game has come around nicely from where it was a few years ago. I love his course fit, and he’s in some of the best form of his career. This is a great combination of trends, and I love the tournament potential with Young here.
Matt Fitzpatrick
DraftKings: $8,700
FanDuel: $10,900
Fitzpatrick is gaining steam as somewhat of a dark horse to potentially contend this week, and his odds are down to the +2000 range on some sportsbooks now. I am somewhat concerned that this will start to spike his ownership, but there are enough strong midrange plays to where I still think things will be spread out. He ranks 3rd in this field in Total Driving and Good Drive Percentage over the last 36 rounds, and while he’s not the longest hitter on the PGA TOUR, he has more distance than he used to. He has made the cut in each of the last 5 Masters, and he strides in with a runner-up finish and a win in his last two PGA TOUR events. There’s a lot of positives with his game right now, and I think he will be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Chris Gotterup
DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $9,800
I value experience a lot at Augusta, and it’s rare that I feel super confident with a debutant. However, I’m breaking that trend for possibly two golfers this week, with Gotterup being my favorite. I have been a Gotterup fan ever since he first came on to the PGA TOUR, and he took his lumps in his first few seasons. The good news is that he looks to be in the midst of a breakout year. He has already won in Hawaii and Arizona, and he had a 6th-place finish in Houston in his last event. Gotterup is massively long off the tee and ranks 4th in this field in that metric this year, and he is not afraid to bomb it. That will really help him on a course that rewards aggressiveness and distance, as long as he can keep it out of massive trouble. The lack of course history gives me some pause on that front, and I wouldn’t play an Augusta debutant in cash games, but we are talking tournament builds here. Gotterup can send it off the tee, and I will send him into a good chunk of my lineups.
Maverick McNealy
DraftKings: $7,200
FanDuel: $8,800
McNealy has quietly been putting together a strong résumé for the better part of the last year. He has finished in the top 25 in 5 of his 7 PGA TOUR events this year. He finished in the top 25 in 6 of his final 9 events last year. If we combine those together, that’s 11 top-25 finishes in a span of 16 events. That’s very impressive. We maybe haven’t seen as many top-5 or top-10 finishes as we would like in that stretch, but it’s still a consistent stretch of solid golf. He grades out above field average in basically every single Strokes Gained metric over that span, ranking 36th or better in every department over the last 50 rounds. At these affordable salaries, he makes for a nice combination of safety and upside toward the back end of your roster.
Adam Scott
DraftKings: $7,200
FanDuel: $9,400
When in doubt, side with the Augusta veterans. Scott is making his 25th Masters start this week, which is quite remarkable for someone who isn’t yet playing on the senior circuit. In his previous 24 trips, he has missed the cut only 3 times. I like those odds for a golfer that is priced all the way down at $7,200 on DK and $9,400 on FD. He’s been playing solid golf of late too, as he has made the cut in all 8 of his PGA TOUR events this season. He is going to put himself in the right positions off the tee, and while he may not have the distance as some of the young guns, his experience and success help vault him up my wish list.
Other Top Tournament Options – Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee, Marco Penge
Good luck this week!
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