PGA DFS Tournament Breakdown: Valspar Championship
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, breaks down his top PGA DFS tournament picks in various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Valspar Championship. Which golfers should you be targeting to try and take down the big DFS tournaments? Find out below!
Welcome back, Grinders! We are already at the end of the Florida swing, with the Valspar Championship as the final stop on this late winter docket (it feels weird to call the middle of March “late winter,” but that’s what it is. The 9 inches of snow outside my office window agrees). In any case, we have a relatively weak field assembled for this event. It does not have the new “elevated status” compared to many of the other tournaments we have seen over the past 6 weeks. This gives us a bit of a letdown factor for DFS after THE PLAYERS last week, but there is still plenty of money to be won!
This Florida finale will be played at the usual venue: The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. This difficult Par 71 does not fit the traditional model, as a “normal” Par 71 would have three Par 5s and four Par 3s, but Innisbrook actually has four Par 5s and five Par 3s. This is not something you often see, and it minimizes the importance of Par-4 metrics. However, the Par 5s on this course are no pushover, as they often average among the hardest sets on the PGA TOUR. There are generally no easy holes around this venue.
As we see with most challenging courses, accuracy off the tee, ball striking, and approach play are of prime importance. Rostering players who are strong with their long irons is a primary objective, as there will be many approach shots hit from 150+ yards. Golfers who can scramble and avoid bogeys also get a nice bump, as the greens are small, and par is a fine score here. Expect the scoring average per round to finish over par, even in the absence of extreme weather. This will not be a birdie fest, which is certainly refreshing given that is what we see so often these days!
Let’s get to some of my favorite GPP picks for the week!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Tournament Breakdown for the Valspar Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $11,800
Last week might have ended in disappointment for Fitzpatrick, but it’s not like he threw the tournament away. Cameron Young was just clutch down the stretch. Fitzpatrick was in jovial spirits despite his runner-up finish, and his game remains in a great place right now. He ranks 4th in this field in total strokes gained over the last 36 rounds, his added distance over the past few years will help him with the length of this course, and the confidence is running high. Fitzpatrick has the 2nd-best odds to win and doesn’t have an overwhelming salary tag, and he does have a 5th-place finish at Innisbrook in the past. I like all the trends here.
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