PGA DFS Preview: AT&T Byron Nelson
Yuck. It wasn’t the best week for my picks, that’s for sure. I think it’s fair to say that the entire industry whiffed this past week, and I definitely wasn’t immune to it.
The Players Championship Review
Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, and Henrik Stenson all missed the cut. Na and Spieth were by one stroke, but Stenson was never close. From there, Garcia, Leishman, and Grace made the cut but finished outside the Top 50. Justin Rose was Mr. Inconsistent, but eventually rallied for a decent 19th. Hideki Matsuyama faltered on Sunday, but still grinded out an impressive 7th. Last, our one shining pick for the week was Kevin Chappell, who finished 2nd at a cheap $7,600 price tag. Chappell saved the picks from a complete disaster, but it’s hard to give much better than a C or D overall. The good news is that it’ll be easy to improve this week!
A few people have messaged me asking if I would write up a few additional people each week. I’ve done this in the past for large events (mainly Majors) where I’ll extend to 10 or so golfers instead of the usual 6-8. This week, I’m going with 9-10 with the potential to add more as I continue to research. Feel free to let me know how you feel about it and provide any additional feedback on how I can improve going forward.
AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Dustin Johnson ($11,900)
Dustin Johnson will be the chalk of the week, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be avoiding him. From a pure talent perspective, it’s hard to argue that DJ isn’t one of the five best in the world. Recently, he’s been putting that talent to good use. Before an average finish last week (28th), he had registered four straight Top 15s, including three Top 4s. He hasn’t missed a cut at this event in six attempts and he has four Top 10s to go along with it. He should be able to punish the two Par 5s and drivable Par 4s with his tremendous length.
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900)
I think you could make the argument that Oosthuizen is the third-most talented player in this field, trailing only Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson. Oosthuizen doesn’t play much on the PGA Tour, but when he does, he’s effective. In seven events, he has four Top 25s and two Top 10s, including an impressive runner-up at the WGC Match Play Event. He finished 11th in his last appearance here and had a share of the lead heading into Sunday. He’s a great tee-to-green player (11th in SG:T2G) and also fares well in Par 3 Scoring (8th). I don’t think he’ll be highly owned and makes for a great tournament play.
Marc Leishman ($9,500)
No one has better course history here than Leishman. He has finished 12th or better in five of last seven years here. His form lately has been inconsistent, but this course is tailored to his game. He is a great scorer on Par 3s (12th) and Par 4s (22nd), but also has the distance to challenge the Par 5s as well (38th in Driving Distance). He is an excellent putter (14th) and driver of the ball (12th in Total Driving). I think his poor showing last week and missed cut here last year will be enough to keep his ownership down.
Ryan Palmer ($8,900)
Ryan Palmer is one of the better golfers that a lot of people (outside of the DFS community of course) have never heard of. After missing the cut to start the year, he’s rattled off twelve straight made cuts. Lately, he’s been doing more than just hanging around for the weekend. In his last two appearances, he’s finished in 23rd and 4th. He has some good course history here (three Top 10s in last 5 years here) as well. Like some of the other players here, his added distance off the tee could come in handy, despite on overall shorter course.
Gary Woodland ($8,500)
Like Palmer above, Woodland has been a consistent cut maker (also an identical 12/13 for the year). He hasn’t had quite the success recently as Palmer, but he has been heating up with four consecutive Top 33s. Has the length to do some damage (actually 3rd in Driving Distance), but other parts of his game are underrated. He ranks 26th in GIR and 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His putting is always an issue, but this course seems to mitigate putting problems (heck, Steven Bowditch won here last year!) so I’m not overly worried about it.
Scott Piercy ($8,000)
I’m not sure what more Scott Piercy needs to do to get a big price bump from the folks at DraftKings. He has four straight Top 25s and eight for the year. He hasn’t been able to turn those into serious contentions or Top 10s, but the consistency is impressive. He has some course history here as well, although it’s been a little while. He finished 15th in 2012 and 5th in 2013. Like Dustin Johnson, I expect Piercy to be highly owned, but I think he makes for a nice cash game play.
Colt Knost ($7,800)
In a way, Colt Knost’s 3rd place finish at the Players Championship came out of nowhere. But a closer look reveals that the signs have been there for a little while. Knost has only missed one cut in 16 tries this year, showing his consistency. While last week was his first Top 10, he’s managed five Top 25s. He led the field in Greens in Regulation last week, proving that he’s locked in to his irons right now. His putting has been great as well (17th in Strokes Gained: Putting). As an additional bonus, he finished in the Top 10 here last season.
Bryce Molder ($7,600)
If you look at Molder’s overall stats for the year, they aren’t overly impressive. He’s only made 10/17 cuts and has averaged 55 DK FPs per week, a low total. A closer look, however, shows that he is in excellent form. He has three Top 15s in his last four starts and has made seven consecutive cuts. He placed 22nd here last year, so he’s also comfortable with the course. He’s a good putter (28th in SG: Putting) and Par 3 Scorer (12th in Par 3 Scoring) and appears to be a good fit for the course.