PGA DFS Preview: Dean and Deluca Invitational
Byron Nelson Review
Let’s start with the bad news, and there was more of it than good. I had 4 of 8 miss the cut, the highest percentage I’ve had in writing for about 40 weeks. Oosthuizen, Leishman, Palmer, and Piercy were all between minus 1 and Even par, which wasn’t enough. Now for the good news. All the players that did make the cut ended up in the Top 25. Molder finished in a tie for 24th (disappointing +2 on Sunday dropped him back 17 spots). Gary Woodland and Dustin Johnson finished in 12th. Colt Knost was the best play of the bunch, coming in 4th at just $7,800. Back-to-back disappointing weeks.
If it continues, I’ll re-evaluate the process, but I’m still thinking the process is correct but with poor results. We’ll give a C- for this mixed bag.
Dean and Deluca Invitational Picks
Matt Kuchar ($11,000)
I have nothing against Jordan Spieth this week, but won’t be paying up for his exorbitant price tag. I’ll be (surprisingly) paying for Matt Kuchar with the $1,800 discount. For whatever reason, Matt Kuchar is one of my least favorite golfers to root for. Maybe it’s the Sketchers sponsorship or the overall “dad vibes” that he gives off, but I always find myself rooting against him. This week, however, I’ll be on the Matt Kuchar train with the rest of the DFS world. Kuchar is the hottest golfer not named Jason Day right now, and has back-to-back 3rd place finishes. He has four Top 10s overall. He was a runner-up here in 2013 and has made 7 of 8 cuts here.
Charley Hoffman ($10,400)
Fading Spieth means there is some potential to take two other players in the $10k+ range, assuming you feel comfortable with some of the cheaper options. I was torn between Charley Hoffman and Zach Johnson, but expected ownership was the deciding factor for me. I expect Johnson to be much higher owned, so I went Hoffman to have a more contrarian option. Hoffman has had a tremendous season, even when accounting for multiple Sunday meltdowns. He has four Top 15s in his last five events, including a win at the Valero Texas Open. He also has some course history here with three Top 20s in the last four attempts and no missed cuts in seven tries.
Chris Kirk ($9,700)
A missed cut at the Players Championship might have been the best thing to happen to Chris Kirk’s ownership. Had it not been for this, he ownership might have been through the roof. Why? For starters, before the Players, he had three straight Top 25s. Next, he has a great track record at this event. He won here last year, and before that, he had three Top 20s. Overall, he’s 6 for 6 in making cuts with four Top 20s. His overall numbers don’t pop off the page because of his inconsistent start to the season, but his game appears to be perfectly suited for this venue.
Kevin Chappell ($9,600)
I’m the leader of the Kevin Chappell fan club. Had it not been for another brilliant performance from Jason Day, Kevin Chappell would have picked up an impressive victory at the Players Championship. Don’t expect Chappell to be sending Day a Christmas card because that’s two victories that Day has taken from him. Regardless, Chappell has three Top 10s in his last four appearances. Chappell excels at ball striking and picking up strokes from tee-to-green (10th). He’s a below-average putter, but the rest of his game has been good enough to offset this weakness. His elevated price should also keep his ownership much lower than it would have been otherwise.
Jason Dufner ($8,400)
Jason Dufner is one of the few guys who can rival my disdain compared to someone like Kuchar. Unlike Kuchar, it’s not that Dufner is boring, it’s just that I have always seemed to hate him. Apparently I’m all about forgiveness and moving on this week. Dufner is trending in the right direction, and has improved in each of his last three events, including a Top 25 at the Byron Nelson. Before a missed cut at The Masters, he had back-to-back Top 22s, so his overall form is good. He has two runner-up finishes at Colonial Country Club and is clearly comfortable playing here. Despite an up-and-down year, he still ranks 12th in Greens in Regulation for the season. His price seems right at about $8,400 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him compete for a Top 10 finish.
NOTE: I don’t currently have anyone in the $8,300 to $7,300 range. I might add one later Wednesday afternoon. Some of the candidates are Colt Knost, Ryan Palmer, and Steve Stricker.
Harris English $7,300
Harris English has followed a made cut, missed cut routine for his five past starts and he’s coming off a made cut, so a missed cut is coming right? Wrong (I think). English has clearly been inconsistent this year, but he still has plenty of potential. He finished 17th at the Wells Fargo just a few weeks ago, and 10th at the WGC Cadillac Championship earlier in the year. When he gets it rolling, he’s one of the better putters on Tour (24th in Stroke Gained: Putting this year, 10th last season). I think he does enough to string together consecutive made cuts for the first time in a while.
Bryce Molder ($7,100)
I’ve been riding the Bryce Molder train and will continue doing so until DraftKings’ pricing gives me a reason to hop off. Priced at just $7,100, we’re essentially looking for a made cut and anything else is a bonus. Molder is a player clearly capable of much more as he has three consecutive Top 25s. He’s also made eight straight cuts, which bodes well for him this week. Molder has done the majority of his damage with the flat stick and is ranked 13th in Strokes Gained Putting. He’s also ranked in the Top 25 in Par 3 Scoring. Molder makes for a safe value option with some upside to allow you to fit some higher dollar players into your lineup.