PGA DFS Preview: PGA Championship

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It was always going to be difficult for an event to live up to The Open Championship from the week prior, although the RBC Canadian Open did its best. A bladed bunker shot that looked like an amateur hit it sunk Steve Wheatcroft’s chances of forcing a playoff as he seemed to force back tears after the mishap.

In the end, no one could catch Jhonattan Vegas, who fired a final round 64 to vault into the winner’s circle. I don’t know what his odds were coming into the day, but I’d imagine they had to be greater than 100-1. The Canadian amateur Jared du Toit was also an amazing story, as he battled throughout the week to ultimately land in the Top 10.

RBC Canadian Open Picks Review

For the second straight week, my picks got off to a good start. At The Open Championship it was 8/10 making the cut, last week it was even better at 7/8, with only Canadian David Hearn failing to make the weekend. Unfortunately, many faded down the stretch. Tony Finau, William McGirt, and Emiliano Grillo finished outside the Top 40. Chad Campbell finished a respectable 26th, but fell 20 spots on Sunday. The “Big 2” of Jason Day finished 14th and 2nd, so not a bad effort, but a victory from one of them would have been nice. Without nailing the winner or having more than two in the Top 25, it’s hard to call it a successful week. Made cuts but nothing more won’t get it done. I’ll give myself a C- and hope to improve when it really counts this week!

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from Gibbathy (2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year), a weekly course analysis, and Expert Consensus Rankings! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!

PGA Championship Picks

Dustin Johnson ($11,600)

As always for majors, the pricing is super soft to make it easier on casual players. Because of that, it will be fairly easy to fit two studs in your lineups. The first guy in mine will be Dustin Johnson. DJ is as hot as any golfer we’ve seen in a while. This run is similar to the one Jason Day went on last year, the middle of which was a pummeling victory at the PGA Championship where he shot 20 under. While DJ isn’t likely to match that number, I think he has what it takes to be successful here. Par 70 courses don’t often require length due to the limited number of Par 5s, but this week will be a little different as the course is playing at over 7,400 yards. Johnson is first on Tour in Driving Distance at a ridiculous 314 yards, although he can easily hit 350+ when he turns it up a notch. That will come in handy on several of the lengthy Par 4s (discussed in detail later). DJ also ranks in the Top 2 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Birdie Average, Scoring Average, and Par Breakers.

Rory McIlroy ($11,400)

If you’ve read my articles for any period of time, you’ve probably realized my preferences when it comes to the “Big 4” of (alphabetically) Day, Johnson, McIlroy, and Spieth. I’ve been huge on Day, big on Johnson, and generally faded Rory and Spieth. This week, however, Rory makes it in my preferred two. The big issue with Rory in the past has been twofold. One, he missed too many short putts. Two, he tends to have too many big numbers on the scorecard as he can’t avoid the occasional blowup hole. I don’t think either will be quite as much of a concern this week, especially with Rory’s power and precision. He ranks 1st in SG: Off-the-Tee and 3rd in SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s also no slouch in the distance department, ranking 13th in Driving Distance. Yes, the putter always worries me with him, but he seems to feel really comfortable at PGA Championships (regardless of venue), so I’m hoping this will lead to a confident putting stroke.

Adam Scott ($9,300)

At this price point, I think the ownership for Sergio Garcia will be very high. In fact, outside of the Big 4 (and possibly Matt Kuchar), I think Sergio will be the next highest owned golfer this week. To be clear, I don’t dislike Sergio, but I think Adam Scott provides more value when ownership percentages are considered. I think Sergio could be as much as twice as highly owned. Adam Scott is one of the purest ball strikers on Tour. Not only that, but he hits his long irons as well as anyone. I had already written about this before I looked up the stats, but the stats backed it up too. From Approaches > 200 yards, Scott ranks first on Tour (Rory is 5th btw). For 175-200 yards, he ranks 2nd, trailing only Robert Garrigus. Given the length of some of these Par 4s and 5s (8 hole’s playing 450+ yards), I think this 175-200 yard distance could be pivotal. Last (but certainly not least) is my favorite part about Scott. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and quite frankly, it’s not that close. This is being dubbed as a ball-strikers course and no one does it better than Adam Scott.

Branden Grace ($8,000)

I was really torn between Branden Grace and Patrick Reed at this price point, but Grace gets the nod due to a perceived love this week for Patrick Reed. Especially for large events like the Millionaire Maker, we want to try to have unique lineups, and having lesser-owned players will obviously increase those odds. Grace had a miserable weekend at The Open Championship (76-77) and faltered to 72nd. Before this poor showing, however, he had been in remarkable form, including four Top 10s in a five week span, including a victory at the RBC Heritage and a T5 at the U.S. Open. Like many players here, Grace’ Tee-to-Green game is top notch (13th), and he also packs enough distance that he won’t be getting lapped by the field. His Par 4 Scoring is also very good (27th) and he ranks favorably in 175-200 approaches (14th). Recency bias will lead to low ownership and he could be just the player you need to push your GPP lineup over the edge.

J.B. Holmes ($7,700)

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Unless you had him in your lineups, you probably had no idea that J.B. Holmes finished 3rd at The Open Championship. All of the attention was on Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson (rightfully so), but that shouldn’t overshadow the impressive performance Holmes put forth. Holmes also finished 4th at the Masters, so it’s safe to say he’s having the best year that no one is talking about. Holmes did this at a course that wasn’t quite as suited to him, and now he comes to a course where long hitters should have a slight advantage. Holmes is 2nd in Driving Distance, trailing only the aforementioned Dustin Johnson but less than a yard. For a long hitter, he’s a surprisingly weak Par 5 Scorer (81st), but that won’t be as much of an issue on a Par 70 course. He’s also in the Top 10 in Approaches from >200 yards, which should be useful, even for a player of his length. There’s always a risk of a missed cut with Holmes, but the massive upside outweighs the risks.

Charl Schwartzel ($7,300)

This price is not a joke. I repeat, this price is not a joke. Charl Schwartzel is indeed priced at $7,300, the same realm as players like Harris English and Victor Dubuisson (no offense guys). Charl has continued to play great golf, yet DraftKings continues to drop his price. He has five straight Top 25s, two of which were majors. He’s as good as they come from Tee-to-Green (9th) and most of that is boosted by his phenomenal approach stats (5th in SG: Approach-the-Green). Like Grace, his Driving Distance should be good enough to keep him within reasonable distances on approach shots. His putting is always a concern, but it’s worth the risk for a player with so much upside. Use Schwartzel as a free square and differentiate elsewhere.

Steve Stricker ($7,000)

Steve Stricker has been drinking from the fountain of youth lately. Despite being a ripe 49 years old, Stricker is playing some of his best golf lately. Sure, he’s not going to contend with the long bombers in the longest drive competition (192nd on Tour in DD), but he makes up for it around the greens. He ranks 14th in SG: Around-the-Green and 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting. I worry a little bit about his ability to be close enough on some of the longer Par 4s due to his limited length off the tee, but he finds way to avoid big mistakes when he does miss greens. He ranks 1st on Tour in Scrambling, much of which is driven by his great putting abilities. I don’t have a feel for how highly-owned he’ll be this week, but I plan on playing him in cash and GPP lineups.

Gary Woodland ($6,700)

Gary Woodland is basically the exact opposite from Steve Stricker. Unlike Stricker, Woodland can bomb it off the tee, ranking 9th in Driving Distance at over 306 yards per drive. This leads to an impressive 0.5 SG: Off-the-Tee, good for 28th on Tour. The success continues in his approach game, where Woodland is 22nd in SG: Approach-the-Green and 21st in Greens in Regulation. What does that add up to? He’s 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Once he gets to the green, however, things are more challenging. He’s 112 in Strokes Gained Putting. The reason I’m not as worried about his putting is that his form has been great lately. Putting is often a mental battle and confidence is key to successful putting. Woodland has Top 25 finishes in four of his last five starts. I think he continues the streak, and at $6,700, that would more than pay for his cheap price tag.

Punt Plays ($6,500 and Under)

Jhonattan Vegas ($6,500)
Andy Sullivan ($6,100)
Brendan Steele ($6,000)

About the Author

ezellmt
Taylor Ezell (ezellmt)

Taylor Ezell (aka ezellmt) has been playing daily fantasy sports for over a decade. After starting as an editor on RotoGrinders, he transitioned into a role providing content and has written about NFL, MLB, PGA, NBA, NHL, and ESports. While he plays DFS for almost all sports (except NBA), he specializes in NHL and PGA. He has 12 Live Final appearances across five different sports. His best results include winning the 2018 DraftKings Fantasy Hockey World Championship for $100,000 and a runner-up at the 2015 DraftKings $1M College Football Championship for $150,000. Outside of fantasy sports, Taylor is a Senior Manager at a Consulting Firm (IT Audit) in Nashville. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TaylorEzell