PGA DFS Preview: Quicken Loans National
What an interesting week it was at the US Open at Oakmont. There were initial concerns about the course playing too difficult. Then, the weather made the course “too easy” and players started to post plenty of red numbers. Some of the world’s best wilted under the pressure (Rory, Rickie, Speith), while others (Day, Sergio, Grace )hung around to make things interesting. In the end, no one was able to catch Dustin Johnson. Johnson was able to battle through a scoring controversy with the USGA on Sunday to capture a victory by three strokes, earning his first major championship.
So how did my picks fare in a week where it really matters? Pretty well overall. Out of nine selections, seven made the cut, which is a high percentage given the low number (Top 60 instead of 70) that actually made the cut. Retief Goosen was one of the highest owned players, so his missed cut didn’t hurt as much. Patrick Reed was the other to miss the cut, which was definitely disappointing. Matt Kuchar (46th) and Danny Willett (37th) made the cut, but didn’t quite deliver what we were hoping for. Carl Schwartzel and Russell Knox both finished in 23rd, great value for their respective prices. A surge from Brooks Koepka on Sunday vaulted him up to 13th, and his fantasy output was much higher than that too. Jason Day rebounded from a miserable opening round to finish inside the Top 10, by far the highest of the “Big 3” of Day/Speith/McIlroy. Last (but not least) is our winner, Dustin Johnson. I wrote this about him last week “It’s crazy to think I “trust” him the most, but hear me out. I guess it wasn’t so crazy after all. Overall, I’ll give myself a B for the week as we had the winner, two Top 10s, and five Top 25s. Let’s keep the momentum rolling this week!
Quicken Loans National Picks
Patrick Reed ($11,700)
It feels weird paying so much for Reed, but there aren’t too many quality options to pay up for. I went with Reed last week and he burned me with a missed cut. He didn’t play that poorly, but eventually missed the cut by two strokes. Much of this write-up is a repeat from last week because little has changed. If you scroll through Patrick Reed’s game logs, you’ll quickly notice that he’s a bit of an enigma. When he’s on his game, he’s one of the top talents in the world and fully capable of winning even in the biggest stages. When he’s off, however, he can miss cuts (cough, last week, cough). Before last week, he had back-to-back Top 15 finishes, including an 8th at the Memorial. Reed’s strength is around the greens. Unsurprisingly, he is ranked first in the newly established Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green stat. He also has an 11th place finish here in 2014.
Marc Leishman ($10,900)
Many will be on the recently resurgent Jim Furyk after his runner-up finish at the US Open. I don’t think it’s a bad play, but I’m not sure the high ownership percentage is worth stomaching, especially in tournaments. Insert Marc Leishman as a nice GPP pivot. Leishman is playing great golf lately and has three straight finishes inside the Top 18. Leishman’s game is based on balance and he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. If you had to point out some strengths, they are likely around the green (17th in SG: Around-the-Green) and putting (16th in SG: Putting), although his putting has been inconsistent through the years. He is in the Top 10 in Par 4 Scoring and ranks in the Top 50 in all three hole types. He doesn’t have a ton of history here, but does have a T8 here in 2014.
Brendan Steele ($9,900)
Steele is a perfect storm of two of the things we look for in a DFS golfer: current form and course history. Steele has four Top 20s in his last five events, including a T15 at Oakmont. He has placed well here in the past. He has 16th and 5th place finishes in 2013 and 2014. Steele’s biggest asset is his ability to hit greens consistently as evidenced by his 19th ranked Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage. At this price point (much higher than his usual $8k range), I don’t think he’ll be heavily owned compared to his overall ability.
Jamie Lovemark ($8,200)
Jamie Lovemark is my “gut feel” pick of the week. That’s not to say there isn’t evidence to support the pick, but I just have a feeling he’s going to be in contention come Sunday. Lovemark is best known for his ability to drive the ball a long way (10th in Driving Distance), but he has other impressive attributes as well. He’s ranked 21st in SG: Around-the-Green and 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee. He’s also in the Top 25 in Birdie of Better Percentage, which will be important this week. He’s also in the Top 25 in both Par 4 (16th) and Par 5 Scoring (23rd).
Kevin Streelman ($8,100)
After a slow start to the year, Streelman appears to be rounding into form. He has back-to-back Top 15s, including a T13 at The US Open last week. Streelman is an accurate ball-striker and ranks 17th in GIR. Streelman’s issue has always been with the flat stick, and he hasn’t finished inside the Top 100 in SG: Putting since 2013. Recently, however, he’s been able to roll in plenty of putts, which has led to the uptick in performance. Effective putting requires confidence, and Streelman has it in bunches right now. I think he carries the momentum forward and challenges for another T15 this week.
Daniel Summerhays ($8,100)
I thought Summerhays would play relatively well at Oakmont and potentially make the cut. I did not anticipate him in outside contention on Sunday and eventually in a tie for 8th place. Summerhays had one of the rounds of the tournament, firing a 65 on Friday to jolt up the leaderboard. He did it by limiting the big numbers, as he had just one double bogey in the four rounds. The finish gave him four T25s in his last six starts. The stats and rankings for Summerhays don’t show very well because of his inconsistencies to start the year, but when he’s going, he is keeping the ball in the fairway and making plenty of putts. I think he adds another Top 25 to the list this week.
Kyle Reifers ($7,700)
Fun fact: Kyle Reifers is 45th in FedEx points! Before a missed cut at the St. Jude Classic a few weeks ago, Reifers was playing some of the best golf of his career. He had finishes of 20th (Memorial), 5th (Dean & DeLuca), and 10th (Byron Nelson) in consecutive weeks. For the year, he has four Top 10s and six Top 25s. Reifers’s overall stats don’t jump off the page, but he shows well in a few categories this week, including 35th in GIR, 27th in Par 5 Scoring, and 35th in Driving Accuracy. Due to the recent missed cut, his ownership should be in the single digits and could be a difference-maker in large tournaments.