PGA DFS Preview: RBC Canadian Open
Wow. What a performance by Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson. I haven’t been that enthralled with a golf tournament in a long time. Eventually, the Swede was too much and finished a remarkable 20 shots under par. I can’t remember a week where two players separated themselves from the field like that. The weather cooperated overall and allowed the players to attack the golf course. Overall, it was must-see TV and a treat for fans.
British Open Review
For DFS purposes, there was obviously a stark gap in fantasy output between Stenson/Phil and everyone else. If you wanted to do any real damage, you needed one or both of them in your lineup. Unfortunately, I had neither in my write-up from last week. I seriously considered Stenson, although Phil wasn’t really on my radar. Things started off well with 8/10 golfers making the cut. From there, things fizzled out. Dustin Johnson (9th) Schwartzel (18th) and Day (22nd) weren’t bad, but they didn’t win you any tournaments either. The others went on to finish in the 30s and 40s, which might have been enough for some cash game wins, but nothing more. Overall, a disappointing week, especially on such a large slate. We’ll go with a C- and try and improve this week.
RBC Canadian Open Picks
Jason Day ($12,300)
Over his last 12 rounds (three events), Jason Day has two rounds above a 72. Both of these came on Thursdays in the U.S. Open and The Open Championship. He was essentially out of it before the tournament began in either event. He has still rallied to post three consecutive Top 22s and Top 8s in two of three, but he’ll need a better start to contend for a victory. He’ll return to the event he won last year, which is always a nice confidence booster when stepping on the first tee. Day is the best putter on the planet right now (yes, that includes Jordan Spieth), and his short game is almost as good (16th in SG: Around-the-Green).
Dustin Johnson ($12,000)
I realize I’m a horrible human being for including both Day and Dustin Johnson for a second consecutive week. I just think they are better than everyone else right now, especially in this field! Johnson is having a season for the ages thus far, and still has two wins in the last three weeks, including the U.S. Open a month ago. He has four straight Top 10s, and Top 5s in eight of his last eleven starts! Unsurprisingly, he ranks favorably in almost all categories, but this week’s key stats include 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 1st in Par 4 Scoring. He also has some history here, finishing in a tie for 2nd in 2013.
Tony Finau ($9,300)
I don’t mind the likes of Kuchar, Snedeker (should be decently low owned), and Furyk this week, but I think I’ll be dropping down to Finau after the “Big Two”. Finau is one of the longest players on Tour, and should be able to use his length to tame this course. Finau is obviously a long bomber (3rd in Driving Distance), but he’s parlayed this distance into success off-the-tee (40th) and efficient Par 5 Scoring (17th). The big concern with Finau is always his putting, which can be unpredictable from week-to-week. He has a little bit of history here, and finished last season with a good taste in his mouth, firing a final round 65 to vault up to 22nd.
Emiliano Grillo ($8,500)
Grillo appears to be the chalk of the town this week in DFS, but that won’t be enough to keep me off of him. Grillo is in great form lately and has posted Top 15 finishes in three of his last four starts, including a T12 last week at The Open Championship. What Grillo lacks in driving distance, he makes up for in precision and accuracy, both off the tee (34th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th in Driving Accuracy) and finding greens (30th in Greens in Regulation). Because of his combination of excellent driving accuracy and moderate distance, he ranks 2nd in Total Driving. He’ll be a staple in my cash game plays.
David Hearn ($7,900)
There aren’t many prolific Canadian golfers who could claim this as a home event, but David Hearn fits that mold this week. Hearn is playing some of his best golf lately, and has made six consecutive cuts. During that span, he has finishes in the Top 30 in five of six starts. Like Grillo, Hearn is an accurate player, ranking 18th in Driving Accuracy and 28th in Greens in Regulation. Hearn also ranks first in Proximity to Hole. He’ll try to win one for Canada this week!
William McGirt ($7,700)
At first glance, William McGirt is seriously mispriced on DraftKings. After looking closer, I can at least see the rationale at having him at this price. The bad news is that McGirt has missed the cut in two of his last four starts. The good news is that in the other two starts, he has finishes of 7th and 1st. McGirt is clearly an upside play with plenty of risk associated with it. McGirt also brings some course history with him, with runner-up finishes at Glen Abbey in 2012 and 2013. McGirt brings a well-rounded game to the table, as he ranks in the Top 30 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Putting, SG: Total, and Par 4 Scoring.
Chad Campbell ($6,800)
Other than the whole “being Canadian” thing, Chad Campbell’s profile is similar to Hearn above. Like Hearn, he’s playing some of his best golf lately. He has four straight finishes inside the Top 35, including a Top 10 at the Dean & DeLuca Invitational. Like most the golfers mentioned here, Campbell brings a balanced game with few glaring weaknesses. He rankings in the Top 40 in SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Tee-to-Green, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, and Par 5 Scoring. There are an abundance of quality options around this price point, which should keep ownership low.