PGA DFS Preview: RBC Heritage
What a heart-breaking, but exciting finish to the Masters.
Jordan Spieth appeared to be well on his way to a second straight Masters win before the wheels came off. I’ve watched a lot of golf through the years, and I can’t think of a bigger meltdown, especially from such a great player in a prominent spot. Credit must be given to Danny Willett, who seized the opportunity in route to a surprising victory. He finished with a bogey-free 67, good for the best round of the tournament.
Masters Recap
I wrote up twelve players last week, so there was bound to be a wide range of outcomes for my players. As you would expect, it was a mixed bag, but probably more good than bad. Danny Willett’s improbable comeback helped out a ton, as nailing the winner for such a cheap price is a nice feather in our cap. Paul Casey and Jason Day both ended up in the Top 10. Hoffman and Kaufman ended up with a Top 30 for cheap, but the results dropped off after that. Bubba was a big disappointment and finished 37th. Patrick Reed was even worse, making the cut but finishing 49th. I had four missed cuts (Sullivan, Moore, Schwartzel, and Leishman), so 8/12 made it through. Overall, it was a solid week with the potential for more had someone else like Day or Watson performed as expected. I’ll give it a B and hope to improve this week.
You Pick Two
One of my favorite things about Panera is getting the “You Pick 2” Combo. We are going to do the same thing when it comes to players that are $10k or above this week, or in this case, picking two to exclude. There are five to choose from, so I’ll explain what I don’t like about the others. Let’s start with Matt Kuchar. He was probably the most difficult to leave out because I really like how his game fits here, and he’s been playing well lately. That being said, I just don’t see him winning this event. I know he plays well here, but I just don’t know that Kuchar has enough flash to pull off a W. For this price, you have to select players with a decent chance of winning. Zach Johnson’s game should also fit this course well, but I don’t love his recent form. In addition, he hasn’t been a good scrambler this year, which could be essential this week. Anyways, here’s my Top 5 for these (by expected points/$): Casey, Snedeker, Day, Kuchar, Johnson.
If you are new to PGA DFS and have any questions about the game, or you have questions about this week, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter .
Jason Day ($12,500)
Yea I know, this is a chalky pick that didn’t require much imagination. Jason Day played pretty poorly by his standard at The Masters and still ended up with a Top 10 finish. Day doesn’t fit the typical mold here (generally suited for shorter, more accurate players), but Day isn’t just a one-trick pony with a long driver. His biggest asset this week will be his putter. Most people probably don’t realize it, but Day ranks fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting. He finished 6th in this category last year, so it’s not a fluke. Day’s scrambling this year hasn’t been great, but it’s normally an area of strength for him. Last year, he was 2nd in Scrambling, saving an impressive 65%+ of his misses. Selecting Day limits some of the roster flexibility you have, but he might be worth every penny as he’s the only golfer I could see running away with this event.
Paul Casey ($10,800)
Paul Casey was a write-up from last week, and he delivered in a big way, finishing in a tie for 4th thanks to a blistering 67 on Sunday. It was a bogey-free gem and matched the lowest round for the tournament. If you compare it side-by-side with Danny Willett, you’ll notice eerie similarities, although Willett obviously received more acclaim for his sparkling round due to what was at stake. Before his 4th place at Augusta, he had finishes of 9th and 7th, giving him three straight Top 10s. Casey excels from tee-to-green (21st), especially when it comes to his iron play (20th in GIR). He is a tremendous ball striker (10th) and I expect him to navigate this tight course better than most. His putting has been merely average this year (60th in SG:Putting), but he has managed to put up results in spite of his thus far. Casey also has Top 25s in all three of his visits here.
Brandt Snedeker ($10,600)
I have given this warning several times in my past articles, but I always seem to be on Brandt Snedeker on the wrong weeks. If I take him, he’ll miss the cut or finish outside the Top 30. If I fade him, he’s a lock for a Top 5. We’re rolling the dice again with “Sneds” and hoping that even my jinx won’t slow him down. Snedeker has had an up-and-down season thus far. In January, he had a stretch of 3-2-1 finishes and looked to be in route to his finest season ever as a professional. Since then, he’s strung together some uninspiring performances, but seemed to have righted the ship last week at the Masters, where he finished 10th. The reason he is so inconsistent is that he is heavily reliant on his putter. When he’s hot with the flatstick, few are better than him. When he’s not, he’s just an average golfer. In addition to his putting prowess, Snedeker has proven to be adept at scrambling (15th), although some of this is likely due to his putting ability boosting his scrambling numbers. I would expect Snedeker’s ownership percentages to be fairly low compared to Casey and Day, making him a viable GPP play.
Bill Haas ($9,100)
Bill Haas isn’t someone who frequently makes his way into my lineups (or write-ups). I can’t explain why I don’t generally land on him, but I’m looking to buck that trend this week. Haas is playing some of his best lately, and is coming off a Top 25 at The Masters. Before that, he was a runner-up at the Valspar Championship. He doesn’t make a ton of birdies, but is content grinding out pars. His history here is nothing special, but that doesn’t mean his game isn’t up to the challenge. Haas ranks in the Top 25 in Driving Accuracy and Scrambling. I think it’s unlikely Haas walks out of here as the winner, but a Top 5 finish wouldn’t surprise me.
Luke Donald ($8,300)
Several weeks ago, I lectured heavily against taking course history as a significant factor in rostering someone. This lecture was inspired by Matt Every’s prior dominance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational combined with is otherwise disastrous form. I eventually concluded that Every was a big fade for me and he went on to miss the cut. Luke Donald has had a similar history of dominance at this event, although primarily through Top 5s. He has three runner-ups and two additional Top 3s here since 2009. The difference between Donald and someone like Every (other than the obvious gap in overall abilities) is that Donald has been playing respectable golf lately. He hasn’t been a world-beater by any means, but a 26th at the Puerto Rico Open and a 22nd at the Valspar lately have shown that he’s in decent form. He ranks 10th in Scramlbing, and 21st in Par 4 Scoring, two key factors this week. I expect Donald to be one of the highest owned plays this week, so feel free to fade in tournaments if you’re looking to differentiate yourself.
Charles Howell III ($8,100)
The final roster spot was up for grabs between Danny Lee and Charless Howell III. Howell III took it down due to more consistency lately. Howell III has missed only one cut this season, whereas Lee has missed four. Howell III has four Top 10s versus Lee’s one, so it ended up being a fairly easy decision, although I’ll try to have some exposure to Lee as well. The biggest risk in selecting Howell III is his inconsistency off the tee. His Driving Accuracy is abysmal this year, but he has managed to consistently find greens (32nd in GIR) and pick up strokes along the way (42nd in SG:T2G). He is also a great scrambler (12th), which is more impressive when combined with average putting (65th). I don’t think Howell has quite the game here to compete for a victory, but at this price, somewhere around the Top 10 would be a great return.
Jamie Lovemark ($7,800)
Those that a new to the PGA DFS scene or PGA in general might not be familiar with the name Jamie Lovemark. He’s been a pro since 2009, but is just now coming into his own as a player. Through 14 Tour events, he already has seven Top 10s, more than the rest of his career combined. In addition to the Top 25s, he has four Top 10s and has earned over $1 million to boot. Lovemark is known as a long-bomber (9th in Driving Distance), but that isn’t his only attribute. Lovemark ranks highly on two of the most important factors this week, scrambling (5th) and Par 4 Scoring (21st). Lovemark will often have to keep the driver in the bag to hit these fairways, but that might end up helping him, since he can often be erratic with the driver. I don’t expect many to be on him this week due to the avoidance of long hitters here, but he could be a nice play in large tournaments.
Scott Brown ($7,500)
Everyone has “their guy” and apparently, Scott Brown is “my guy”. I’ve been on him several times this year, and he has seemed to perform in every instance. Brown isn’t generally an appealing DFS option because his stats don’t jump off the page. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses either. Brown went to college at USC not far from here, and is quite familiar with this course. His course history backs this up and he is 3/3 in cuts, including a Top 5 in 2014. Other than a lousy finish at the Houston Open, Scott has been excellent lately. Before that event, he had finishes of 5-27-7-10. I expect him to rebound and contend for another Top 25 performance this week.
K.J. Choi ($7,400)
I struggled with what to do with Choi this week, but ended up decided that he was worth the risk. Choi is in the midst of a resurgent season, and apparently he’s getting better with age. In 2015, he had just two Top 25s and no finishes in the Top 10 in 19 appearances. Already through 11 events this year, he has three Top 25s, two Top 10s, and a runner-up finish. Choi’s recipe for success is pretty simple. Stay out of trouble and play solid golf. He’s one of the shortest players on Tour (199th in Driving Distance at 275 yards), but that shouldn’t be a huge limiting factor here. His Driving Accuracy (39th), Scrambling (4th), and Sand Save (4th) should be valuable assets. While Par 4 scoring has been emphasized this week, Par 3 scoring will be important as well, and Choi ranks 7th in that category thanks to precise iron play.