PGA DFS Preview: St. Jude Classic
There were a lot of red down arrows by my players on Sunday, meaning they dropped positions after poor Sunday rounds. Going into the day, it looked very promising, and ended up just being average. Matsuyama was the biggest disappointment and completely busted, finishing at 3 over, well outside the cut. Chris Kirk didn’t play that poorly, but barely missed the cut at -1. The other six players made the cut. K.J. Choi was in the Top 15 going into Sunday, but dropped to 52nd. He still paid off at just $6,000, but more would have been nice. Jamie Lovemark and Danny Lee also finished 52nd after bad Sunday rounds. Jason Dufner flirted with a Top 25, but ultimately fell to 33rd.
The stars of the week were Rory McIlroy and Charl Schwartzel. Rory was the best of the “Big 3” by a decent margin, so that play worked out. I mentioned last week that I felt Schwartzel was the most underpriced player and that turned out to be true. In summary, a decent cut percentage, but miserable play on Sunday dropped a lot of places. We’ll go with a C+ overall.
St. Jude Classic Picks
Brooks Koepka ($11,100)
I’ve seen a lot of people in the industry on Phil Mickelson, but I just can’t fully buy-in on Phil. I realize he’s been trending in the right direction, but there are just too many weeks where he still seems off. Brooks Koepka, on the other hand, seems to be heating up at just the right time. He’s coming of an impressive 2nd place at the AT&T Byron Nelson and has a pair of other Top 10s this year. Koepka has also has some success here, placing 19th and 3rd in his only two appearances here. Koepka is known for his ability to hit the ball a long way, but he isn’t a one-trick pony. He’s 6th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 7th in Par 4 Scoring, both key factors this week.
Ryan Palmer ($10,800)
Third and Fourth. Those are the relevant numbers for Ryan Palmer. Palmer has finishes of 3rd and 4th in his last four appearances this season. He also has finished in 3rd and 4th place in 2012 and 2013 at this event. Palmer is a good tee-to-green player (28th in SG: Tee-to-Green), but he excels even more off-the-tee (8th in SG: Off-the-Tee), which should be pivotal this week. I’d be surprised if Palmer didn’t compete for another Top 5 finish this week.
Gary Woodland ($10,400)
I really like all three of Gary Woodland, Daniel Berger, and Harris English. In such a weak field, I think all of them have a decent chance at coming away with a victory. In the end, I would rank them Woodland (barely), English, then Berger. Like Koepka, the majority of acknowledgements for Woodland are around his damage with the big stick as he’s 4th in Driving Distance. Woodland ranks in the Top 40 in SG: Off-the-Tee (33rd), SG: Approach-the-Green (19th), and SG: Tee-to-Green (14th). He’s 29th in Greens in Regulation and 32nd in Par 4 Scoring. I don’t have a great feel for how highly Woodland will be owned, but I would imagine it will be low due to the quality options around his price point.
David Hearn ($8,400)
There aren’t many players I’m in love with in between the $9,700 and $8,500 range, so I’ll likely be forgoing the players in this range. David Hearn is a guy I had on my initial list of 12 last week, but he didn’t make the final cut. This ended up burning me as he finished in 27th place for a cheap price. That was his third consecutive Top 30, and he has done so in five of his last six. Speaking of “five of six”, that’s Hearn’s cut numbers at this event, which is solid. Hearn’s biggest weakness is his ability to score on Par 5s (just 143rd in Par 5 Scoring), however he has scored quite well on Par 4s (32nd) and Par 3s (9th). His price is up dramatically from last week, but that’s largely due to the weaker field. I expect him to compete for another Top 25 finish with the potential for more.
Chad Campbell ($7,800)
I had already begun a write-up for Tom Hoge as I wanted a player in this price range, but then I stumbled upon Chad Campbell. To be honest, I had no idea he was playing so well lately. In his last three starts, he has finishes of 39th, 12th, and 10th. He vaulted into the Top 10 with a blistering 63 on Sunday and will hope to ride the momentum into this week. He’s never missed a cut here and had a Top 10 last season. He ranks in the Top 40 in Greens in Regulation, SG: Tee-to-Green, and SG: Around-the-Green. I think he’ll be highly owned, but I’ll still be locking him in and looking to diversify elsewhere.
Tim Wilkinson ($7,200)
There has been more than I expected around Wilkinson, but there is good reason for it. Wilkinson has been a cut-making machine lately (six in a row) and only has two missed cuts all year. Wilkinson just qualified for the US Open, which could be a positive or a negative. He might not have the motivation any more, or he could use this week’s tournament as a tune-up for next week. Anyways, Wilkinson’s good form has been in large part to his putting, where he ranks 11th in SG: Putting. He also ranks 5th on Tour in Par 4 Scoring, which should be a huge benefit this week. At $7,200, he allows you to fit a few stars in your lineup as well.
Jason Gore ($5,900)
If you’ve checked out the DraftKings Expert Rankings, you’ll notice that I have Jason Gore as my #1 punt play this week. Why? He’s a ridiculously cheap $5,900. If you plug him in your lineup, you have almost $9k to spend for the other five spots. If you’re wanting to play someone like Dustin Johnson this week, then you’ll need to take someone as cheap like Gore to make it work. Gore isn’t a great golfer, but he is coming off a made cut and also scored a Top 30 here last year. All you’re looking for is a made cut, and I think Gore can do that this week in a weak field.