PGA DFS Preview: The Barclays
The FedEx Cup playoffs is underway as the players head to Bethpage Black for The Barclays. Check out ezellmt’s favorite plays for this week below.
Travelers Championship Picks
Henrik Stenson ($11,700)
Here’s the crazy thing about Henrik Stenson’s play at the Olympics. He didn’t hit it all that well (for him). He continued to putt extremely well, but it wasn’t a virtuoso performance from Stenson, yet he ended up with the silver medal. Stenson doesn’t have enough stats to qualify for the PGA Tour rankings, but I’ve gone the extra mile and determined where he would rank had he had enough holes to qualify. Here are just a few of the rankings: Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (19th), Driving Accuracy (7th), Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green (2nd), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (3rd), and Greens in Regulation (1st). Not a bad showing, right? His only usual bugaboo is his putter, although that’s been brilliant lately. I see no reason Stenson can’t add a fourth straight Top 7 to his already impressive season.
Rory McIlroy ($11,600)
It seems a little crazy to back someone at this price who has missed the cut in two of his last four starts, but hear me out. If you watched McIlroy at the PGA Championship, it was painful to witness. His iron/wedge play on Friday was brilliant at times, but he missed putt after putt from all lengths. McIlroy has had almost a month to work on his putting stroke, and I fully expect it to be improved. It’s not like he’s never known how to putt, he’s just in a funk right now. The rest of McIlroy’s game is solid, as he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he can manage to be merely above average in putting, I fully expect him to contend for a victory.
Brooks Koepka ($10,100)
I’m still a little mad at myself for fading Brooks at the PGA Championship where he finished 4th. I was too worried about his injury and ignored everything else I love about him. He followed that showing with a 9th at the Travelers Championship. That makes five straight Top 15s in events where he hasn’t withdrawn (WGC Bridgestone WD in first round). Koepka thrives in two main areas. First, he pummels the ball with the best in the game. His Driving Distance (10th) and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (6th) put him in a great position to succeed. Then, once he reached the green (25th in SG: Tee-to-Green), he’s one of the best putters in golf (10th in SG: Putting).
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,900)
I’m already nervous about this pick and the tournament hasn’t even started yet. I don’t see too many in-betweens for Matsuyama this week. I think he’ll either continue his hot form (back-to-back Top 5s) or he’ll falter and miss the cut like he did the week before. Like many of the players in this article, Matsuyama is a great ball striker. He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and 18th in Greens in Regulation. He’s also 7th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Where does he struggle? You guessed it. The flat stick (noticing a trend yet?). Matsuyama is 142nd in Strokes Gained: Putting, which means he putts about as well as I do. I don’t think putting will be as essential this week and that’s when Matsuyama is at his dangerous best.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,900)
If you’ve read this article for any length of time, you know that I’m almost always wrong about Brandt Snedeker. So if you’re reading this, you should probably remove “Sneds” from all of your lineups. After a disappointing lull in the middle of the year, Snedeker has rebounded with a solid stretch. He has four Top 25s in his last five starts, including a 3rd place last week at the Wyndham Championship. Due to his inconsistencies this year, Snedeker doesn’t rank particularly well in that many categories. Even his putting, which is generally the strength of his game, has been only average, ranking 41st in Strokes Gained Putting. I’m leaning on his current form and course history (2nd at Bethpage in 2012 when the Barclays was here) more than season-long statistics. Just remember that I might be cursing him this week.
$8700/$8600/$8500 TBD
I’m still determining who I prefer between the trio of Branden Grace, Jim Furyk, and Charl Schwartzel. I’ll give an update in the new few hours who I prefer from this bunch.
Paul Casey ($7,800)
Paul Casey never seems to receive much love from the DFS community. I’m not sure if it’s his tendency to be good but never a winner (no wins since 2009), but he seems to be criminally underowned every week. Casey has definitely had an up-and-down year, but he seems to be trending up lately. After playing all four of his rounds at the PGA Championship under par, good for a T10, he followed it up with a T17 at the Travelers Championship. Casey thrives from Tee-to-Green (21st) and Greens in Regulation (13th). If he can continue to putt better (82nd in SG: Putting), he’ll be on his way to another Top 10 and contention for another victory.