PGA DFS Preview: The Memorial
After a few average to below-average weeks in a row, last week I rebounded with some of the best picks in a while. We were a missed 3-footer away from getting all seven through the cut, but Kevin Chappell had other plans and choked it. Other than that, it was a stellar week. Charley Hoffman faltered down the stretch to finish in 42nd, but all the other picks were in the Top 15. Bryce Molder (10th) and Chris Kirk (15th) were in the Top 15, while Jason Dufner and Matt Kuchar finished in a tie for 6th.
The real gem was Harris English, who jolted to 2nd with an impressive 66 on Sunday, including an Eagle holeout from the fairway to get the round started. Overall, it’s hard to argue with 6/7 making the cut and 5/7 in the Top 15. We’ll give last week an A and try to replicate it this week.
The Memorial Picks
Rory McIlroy ($12,200)
This tournament possesses about as much star power as you will find outside of a major. Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Rory McIlroy headline the talented field and are the odds-on favorites to win the event. There is no wrong answer between the three, but I’ll be siding with Rory this week. He’s finally rounding into top form and is fresh off a victory (after a few weeks of rest) at the Irish Open. Before that, he’s had finishes of 12th, 4th, and 10th. McIlroy leads the Tour in Par 5 Scoring and should be able to abuse the Par 5s here. He is also 1st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has some history here with three Top 15s. If Rory plays the way he has been lately, he’ll be difficult to stop from winning his second straight event.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600)
After the “Big Three” of Day, Spieth, and McIlroy, there is a decent dropoff in both price in quality, but it might not be as drastic as it appears. Matsuyama has been remarkably consistent this season, and especially good lately. He has four consecutive Top 11 finishes (I realize that’s an arbitrary cutoff point, but work with me here), including 7th place performances at The Players Championship and The Masters. For the year, he has SEVEN Top 11s out of 12 events. It’s probably not identifiable due to the straight cutoff point, but I’m not sure who on Tour has more than that. Matsuyama has been able to get around his slightly below-average putting by stellar play everyone else. He ranks in the Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained :Approach-the-Green, and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also 11th in Greens in Regulation. Some will view this as a little bit of a bomber’s course, but Matsuyama is plenty long to make his way around with ease. I expect him to extend the “Top 11” streak another week.
Jason Dufner ($8,400)
Here is my copy and paste write-up from last week regarding Dufner. “Jason Dufner is one of the few guys who can rival my disdain compared to someone like Kuchar. Unlike Kuchar, it’s not that Dufner is boring, it’s just that I have always seemed to hate him. Apparently I’m all about forgiveness and moving on this week. Dufner is trending in the right direction, and has improved in each of his last three events, including a Top 25 at the Byron Nelson. Before a missed cut at The Masters, he had back-to-back Top 22s, so his overall form is good. He has two runner-up finishes at Colonial Country Club and is clearly comfortable playing here. Despite an up-and-down year, he still ranks 12th in Greens in Regulation for the season. His price seems right at about $8,400 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him compete for a Top 10 finish.” Dufner DID end up with a Top 10 finish and is returning to the form from around 2011-2013 where he was a consistent Top 25 player in the world. In addition to his recent form, Dufner has back-to-back Top 25s at The Memorial. I think he’s a solid cash game play this week.
Chris Kirk ($8,300)
We’re rolling with Kirk again this week as I see no reason to abandon him now. Despite another good performance, his price is way down to $8,300. This is obviously due to the tougher field, but I still think Kirk will compete. He has three Top 15s in his last four tournaments. Kirk doesn’t excel in too many areas, but doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses either. One of his strengths is his ability to recover from missed shots. He ranks 19th in Scrambling and 11th in Sand Save percentage. There will be plenty of missed greens this week, so these skills will be put to the test. I don’t expect him to be highly owned and he makes for a nice tournament play.
Charl Schwartzel ($8,000)
The last time I wrote about Schwartzel, he proceeded to miss the cut at The Masters. My love for him hasn’t dwindled since then, and I still think he’s one of the best players on Tour. Last week, he finished in the Top 25, despite a disappointing finish on Sunday where he dropped ten places. Although Schwartzel hasn’t been superb on the US Tour, he has been putting in work overseas. He has three wins in his last eleven starts worldwide (credit to David Jayne of ESPN for the stat). His course history here is mixed, but he does have a pair of Top 10s in eight appearances. Despite not playing his best golf on the US Tour, his numbers still show up favorably. He ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 17th in Greens in Regulation. He’s also 13th in Scrambling, which should come in handy this week when he does miss greens. At just $8,000, I think he’s underpriced compared to his overall skill level.
Danny Lee ($7,500)
Like Schwartzel above, Danny Lee seems slightly underpriced to me. He is listed at 75/1 odds of winning the event, the same as someone like Kevin Na, who is $600 more expensive than Lee. Lee has been a picture of stability lately, finishing in the Top 35 in four straight weeks, including three Top 25s. This consistency carries across to his statistical rankings as well. While there are few categories where he truly dominates, there aren’t any huge flaws outside of his limited length off the tee. Like many of the other players in this article, Lee excels from the sand (5th in Sand Save %), which is more impressive considering he isn’t an elite putter. With players in his price range like Bill Haas, J.B. Holmes, Kevin Chappell, and Charles Howell III, I expect his ownership to be relatively low as well.
Jamie Lovemark ($7,000)
Skim through Jamie Lovemark’s game log on DraftKings and what stands out to you? He has finishes of 59, 64, 53, and 2nd in his last four. So clearly he’s played terribly in the last three weeks and had a good week at the Zurich Classic. A closer look shows a consistent trend. Blowup rounds have been killing Lovemark and marring otherwise solid golf. He has rounds of 77, 77, 79, and 76 during that span, all during the weekend after he got off to a good start. If Lovemark can eliminate the awful rounds, I think he could rebound and compete for a Top 25 finish. Lovemark is an athlete who happens to play golf (6’4 215 Lbs) and can drive the ball with the best of them (9th in Driving Distance). He’s also good off the tee (11th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee), which should help keep him out of trouble. If he does manage to find trouble, Lovemark ranks 5th in Scrambling at 67%.
K.J. Choi ($6,000)
At just $6,000, Choi allows you to load up with at one of the “Big 3” without crippling the rest of your lineup. All you are looking for at this price point is a made cut and 72 holes of golf. I think Choi possesses both the game and experience here to get that done. Choi is an accurate driver of the ball (38th in Driving Accuracy) and putts well too (26th in SG: Putting). One of the reasons he’s had success here is his ability to recover from the sand. He ranks 6th on Tour in Sand Save Percentage. He is also in the Top 20 in Scrambling. I expect Choi to be one of the more popular punt plays, but think it’s worth it for the lineup flexibility he provides.