PGA DFS Preview: The Open Championship
There wasn’t a tournament last week, so there are no picks to review. That means I was able to spend a little more time in writing the picks for the British Open! Yes, I still call it the British Open. I have no idea why they changed the name to “The Open Championship” (someone feel free to inform me in the comments), but I think it’s dumb. Anyways, I ended up with ten golfers in the write-up. My initial list had 18, but dwindled down to these.
If you have any questions, ask them on Twitter (taylorezell) or in the comments. Good luck!
Jason Day ($12,300)
Here’s the scary thing for Jason Day. He has played pretty lousy over the last three weeks (by his standards), especially on Sunday, and yet he has finished 3rd, 8th, and 27th. Much of this has been due to the fact that he hasn’t broken par on a Sunday during that span. The majority of Day’s game lately hasn’t been clicking, but his remarkable putting ability has kept him in tournaments. He he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Putting. Similar to Spieth, Day’s putter can often carry him if other parts of his game are struggling. Day ranks 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and is 6th in Par 4 Scoring. This week, I think the rest of his game shows up too and he competes for yet another victory.
Dustin Johnson ($12,000)
With the soft pricing on DK (as usual for majors to draw in more casual fans), it’s actually possible to fit two studs in your lineup without feeling horrible about the other four players. I don’t always like the two most expensive, but it happens to work out that way this week. Dustin Johnson is having a season for the ages thus far, and has back-to-back victories, including the U.S. Open a month ago. He has four straight Top 5s, and Top 5s in seven of his last ten starts! He also has plenty of history at this event, with four Top 15s in his career. Unsurprisingly, he ranks favorably in almost all categories, but this week’s key stats include 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 1st in Par 4 Scoring. While it seems unlikely that DJ will make it three straight weeks, I fully expect him to be in contention and end up in the Top 5.
Branden Grace ($9,700)
Grace seemed well on his way to another Top 10 last week before a 74 on Saturday knocked him out of contention. He rebounded with a solid round to finish in the Top 30. Quite frankly, this was possibly the best thing that could happen to Grace because his ownership should be much lower coming off a poor performance. Grace has won twice in the last year and has nine Top 5s to go with it. Grace does everything pretty well, and seems to fit well for this event. He ranks 36th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 6th in Par 4 Scoring. I think he’ll be underowned and possesses the kind of upside you need to take down a large tournament.
Shane Lowry ($8,700)
Similar to Grace, a miserable outing from Lowry at the Scottish Open should keep the majority of players away from him this week. Before that, Lowry finished 36th at the WGC: Bridgeston and the memorable 2nd place finish to Dustin Johnson at the U.S. Open. There are several things that brought me to Lowry for this week. First, I like Lowry’s consistency off the tee as evidenced by his 16th ranked SG: Off-the-Green. Next, I like Lowry’s ability to play in bad conditions. Bad weather is always in the cards at this event, and I like Lowry’s chances of weathering it more than most. Last, I think he will have learned from his meltdown at the U.S. Open and should be able to keep his composure much better down the stretch. Lowry should be viewed as a GPP only due to his inconsistencies.
Matt Kuchar ($7,800)
Is DraftKings serious with this price? Yes, I realize that it’s unlikely Kuchar will walk away the victor this week. Vegas lists him at 60/1 to win the event. His odds of finishing in the Top 20, however, skyrocket to 2/1, even or better than the likes of Danny Willett, Bubba Watson, and Hideki Matsuyama, all of whom are priced well above Kuchar. I think Kuchar will be one of the higher-owned players (especially in cash games), but he’s worth it due to his consistency. “Kuch” has five Top 6 finishes in his last six events! That’s like Dustin Johnson, but without the wins! Kuchar brings one of the most well-rounded games on Tour and ranks in the Top 40 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach-the-Green, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Tee-to-Green, and SG: Putting. So basically, he gains strokes on the field in every conceivable way. He’s not sexy, but he should be in your lineups this week.
Charl Schwartzel ($7,800)
At the same price as Kuchar, we have the more volatile Charl Schwartzel. While Schwartzel hasn’t been quite as consistent as Kuchar, he also provides arguably more upside. Schwartzel has proven he can win a major, and will look to add a British Open to his resume. He is in great form right now, with four straight Top 25s. Much like Kuchar above, Schwartzel brings a balanced game to Royal Troon, although he excels more in a few areas (4th in SG: Approach-the-Green and 9th in SG: Tee-to-Green), while struggling more with the putter (just 84th in SG: Putting).
Scott Piercy ($7,400)
Poor Scott Piercy. He really wishes Dustin Johnson had decided to remain a choke artist with the inability to close tournaments. If so, he might have two wins under his belt instead of two runner-ups. Piercy had a nice run in March through May (four straight Top 30s), then the wheels fell off for a few weeks (MC, 67, 69), and he has regained the form. Clearly he’s a volatile player, but we’re looking for upside in large tournaments, and Piercy provides that for just $7,400. Piercy is great off the tee (36th) and is an accurate ball-striker (34th in GIR). His big issue comes with the putter, where he ranks just 131st in Strokes Gained: Putting. If he can manage to be merely average in this department, he could find himself in contention on Sunday.
Alexander Noren ($6,900)
Alexander Noren was already on my radar going into last week, but then he decided to go out and win the Scottish Open, announcing himself as a contender to the world. The week before, he finished 8th at the France Open, so he’s clearly in great form. He has Top 15 finishes in five of his last eight starts. The European Tour doesn’t have quite the wealth of stats, so we have to dig a little to find our information. Noren has hit over 70% of Greens in Regulation this year, which would rank him 4th on the PGA Tour. He’s also a solid putter who can roll them in from any distance when he’s on. I think he’ll be fairly high owned by the hardcore DFS crowd, but the casual player will overlook him due to a lack of name recognition.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($6,900)
I think this is the week that “RCB” makes his way from being a DFS darling to a household name. Sure, he probably won’t get the TV coverage of the other stars, but I fully expect him to play well and be in the running. Cabrera-Bello has been consistent this year, with seven Top 25s in his last 11 events. He was at his accurate best last week, hitting almost 80% of GIR, which is something he excels at. He also benefits from player on the European Tour, as this is a links-style course.
Harold Varner ($6,000)
To fit the likes of Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, you’re going to need a player or two around the $6k mark. My favorite of the bunch is Harold Varner III. HVIII is in great form lately, with back-to-back finishes in the Top 16. Varner is known as a long hitter (Top 20 in Driving Distance), but he isn’t a one-trick pony. He ranks 24th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, which you can tell I’m valuing this week. At this price, we’re really just looking for a made cut, and I think Varner has the potential for that and more this week.