PGA DFS Preview: The PLAYERS Championship
I’ll post a review of last week’s picks and some other overall thoughts later this afternoon. I wanted to go ahead and get these out there for people wanting to research or make lineups.
The Players Championship Picks
To Pay Up or Not to Pay Up?
Since this is an unofficial major and it features the largest purse for any event this season (over $10 million!), almost all of the world’s best will be playing. That means the likes of Spieth, Rory, Day, Fowler, Rose, Scott, and others are all in action and fully in play for DFS purposes. So who do I like from this elite crew? I hesitantly recommend Jordan Speith or Justin Rose if you feel the need to spend up. Yes, I know Spieth is coming off a heartbreaking finish at the Masters. I also know that he missed the cut here, but I think he still has the game to win here. As for Rose, his game also seems suited for this course and is great form right now. I’m Jason Day’s biggest fan, but don’t think this course sets up as well for him. I don’t mind Rory, but I’m still not sold his putting is consistent enough to win. I feel ok about Fowler as well, but think his potentially high ownership probably outweighs the benefits. Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott aren’t on my radar and are only contrarian options this week. So in ranking the $10k+ guys (by point/$), I’d say it’s: Rose, Spieth, Fowler, Rory, Day, Scott, Johnson.
Writer’s Update: Since the initial posting of this article, I have added Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose. I wanted to have some top $ options for people looking to pay up.
Jordan Spieth ($11,400)
There will be two camps related to Jordan Spieth. In one camp, people are assuming that Jordan will have been crushed by the Masters meltdown and unlikely to recover. They’ll point to the fact that he missed the cut here last year as well. In the other camp (the one I’m in), they’ll point to the fact that he was running away with The Masters before his double-dip into the water. Spieth appears to be well-suited for this course. He ranks 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 4th in Par 4 Scoring. As always, his putting will be the key. His putting hasn’t been quite up to his usual standards this year, but he still ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting. I’m not in love with this pick, but think Spieth rebounds in a nice way with a Top 5 and he’ll be in the running for a victory.
Justin Rose ($10,300)
Rose appears to be a polarizing figure for the DFS community. Most seem to either love him or avoid him at all costs. I’m quite “pro-Rose” and think he’s in a good spot this week. He’s in great form right now, posting three Top 10 finishes in his last four starts, including a 3rd last week at the Wells Fargo. Rose is a phenomenal ball striker (6th) and this is a ball striker’s course. He is ranked in the Top 10 in Greens in Regulation (GIR), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Birdie Average, and All-Around Ranking. His course history here is a list shaky, but I’m willing to ignore given his excellent recent form and a game suited for this course.
Sergio Garcia ($9,900)
Fun Stat for Sergio: He hasn’t missed a cut at this event since 2003! I pity my mentions if Sergio misses a cut this week and I was the one to jinx him… The last time I wrote him up, he did just that and missed the cut. Recently, he’s done much better than just make cuts, placing 8th, 3rd, and 2nd in the past three years. Sergio been solid although nothing special this year, but he also hasn’t played many PGA events, preferring to spend more time on the European Tour. He has four Top 20s on the European Tour in addition to his three on the PGA Tour. Sergio is a surgeon out there when he’s on his game, which is reflected in his 4th ranked Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Where it can all fall apart for Sergio is once he gets on the green. He ranks a putrid 197 in Strokes Gained: Putting. I’m not as worried about this because Garcia is clearly comfortable putting at this event, which can go a long way.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,700)
Here’s what’s crazy about Hideki Matsuyama. He didn’t appear to play all that well at the Wells Fargo, but he still managed to finish in 11th. What I liked the most is that he improved his score in every round, which shows that he was trending in the right direction. The finish makes it three Top 11s in a row, including an impressive showing (7th) at the Masters. He has finished in the Top 25 in both starts here, so there is some course history as well. Matsuyama is a precise player from tee to green (5th in SG:T2G and 13th in GIR) and also makes a ton of birdies (3rd in Birdie Average). He’s 7th on Tour in Par Scoring. People playing someone like McIlroy or Spieth are unlikely to be able to afford someone at Matsuyama’s price (leaves an average of $7,100 left), which should keep his ownership at a reasonable level.
Henrik Stenson ($9,500)
A look at Henrik Stenson’s game log shows a player who was seemingly peaking (28th, 11th, 3rd, and 2nd in consecutive weeks), but then has proceeded to finish 24th at the Masters (definitely respectable) and then an inexplicable Missed Cut at Wells Fargo. So what do we do with this MC? We ignore it. Stenson is one of the best ball strikers in the world. He’s known for his preference to hit 3-Wood off the tee, and this should be a setup that allows him to do that frequently. Stenson is 11th in Driving Accuracy, 8th in GIR, and 4th in Tee-to-Green. Basically, he’s exactly what we’re looking for this type of tournament. He won the Players Championship in 2009 and has seven other Top 25s. He sure seems like a horse for the course and should be highly-owned this week.
Branden Grace ($8,600)
There aren’t as many players severely underpriced compared to the Masters pricing (in my opinion), but Branden Grace stands out as a guy underpriced in relation to his overall ability and recent form. Grace has been a force on both the European and PGA Tour this year. Since a Missed Cut at The Masters, Grace has a win at the RBC Heritage and a 9th at the Texas Open. What’s he done on the European Tour? Oh, just four Top 5s and a victory to boot. Grace ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and is a good scrambler as well. He ranks 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, which should be a key metric this week. I don’t have a great feel as to how many people are on Grace this week, but talented players around his price point should keep his ownership levels lower than expected.
Kevin Na ($7,800)
I’ve generally been higher on Na than the rest of the DFS community. I think some of the disdain comes from the fact that Na is very short off the tee and doesn’t have a prestigious record for winning events (no wins since 2011). What Na has provided, however, is consistency in the form of solid play. Other than an injury-shorted 2013 season, He has had 10+ Top 25s and 6+ Top 10s in every season dating back to 2012. As I mentioned before, Na is very short off the Tee (186th in Driving Distance). For comparison’s sake, Kevin Na doesn’t hit his driver much farther than I do! Luckily, the rest of Na’s game is much better than mine. Na ranks 40th in GIR and 12th in SG:T2G. He is 4th in Par Scoring and 20th in Par 3 Scoring. He can also pour in birdies with the best of them (20th in Birdie Average, 21th in Birdie or Better). He’s coming off one of his best performances of the year, a 4th place bid at the RBC Heritage. I think the carries the momentum over and challenges for a T25 finish or better.
Kevin Chappell ($7,600)
Kevin Chappell seemed to really burst onto the PGA scene with his impressive finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While sporting a bright yellow shirt, Chappell went toe-to-toe with Jason Day and Henrik Stenson before ultimately conceded to the talented Australian. Chappell showed at that event that he’s capable of competing with the big boys, even if he (like Na) lacks some length off the tee. His specialty is superb iron play, which shows up in his 19th ranked Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 34th ranked Ball Striking. He’s also in he Top 40 in Scrambling and Par 4 Scoring Average. He’s made three consecutive cuts, including back-to-back Top 10s at the RBC Heritage (9th) and Texas Open (4th). I expect the similarly priced Russell Knox to be higher owned, making Chappell a nice pivot.
Marc Leishman ($7,300)
I really hesitated to put Leishman in here, because if I’m being honest, I don’t want people upset at me if he misses the cut. Because there are probably only two scenarios in play for this week with Leishman, he’ll easily return value with a T25 performance, or he’ll miss the cut and cost your lineup. That’s what I love about Leishman, especially at this price. He’s one of the few players under $7,500 with the talent to realistically compete for a Top 5. Leishman does a little bit of everything and doesn’t have many glaring flaws. He ranks in the Top 30 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Scrambling, Total Driving (1st), and Par 4 Scoring Average (4th). His well-rounded game should suit him well here.