PGA DFS Preview: Travelers Championship
It was a near impossible task to match the drama of The Open Championship, where Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson treated us to a battle for the ages. The PGA Championship did its very best, however, to put up a good fight. The tension was high until the very last putt, when Jimmy Walker buried a short putt to hold off Jason Day, who had made eagle at 18 to make things very interesting. In my opinion, Baltusrol was a fine but slightly uninspiring venue, but I might be in the minority there. This was the last major this season, but this year we get to look forward to the Olympics, and then the FedEx Cup.
PGA Championship Picks Review
It was definitely an interesting week for my picks, although it seemed to be that way across the industry. My two big guns of Rory and DJ were huge flops and didn’t make the cut. Other missed cuts included Steele, Woodland, and J.B. Holmes. There was some good news as Branden Grace (4th), Adam Scott (18th), and Jhonattan Vegas (22nd) all finished in the Top 25. The other three were in the Top 50 (Schwartzel, Sullivan, and Stricker). Although the overall finishes and cut percentages don’t seem horrific, the way that it happened was. When the top two picks go down in flames, it’s hard to call the week anything but a disaster. I’ll give myself a D (first of the year) and guarantee a better week this time.
Travelers Championship Picks
Bubba Watson ($11,600)
This is the chalkiest of chalk, but I can’t get away from Bubba this week. If I made ten lineups, I’d probably have him in 8 or 9 of 10. That’s how confident I am in him. Bubba’s big concern is always whether the course “fits his eye”. Although this phrase is probably overused, it’s true with Bubba. There are certain venues that pique his interest, and this is one of them. He is a two-time winner here and has two other Top 5s. Bubba is 8th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Although he might not be able to flex his driving distance muscle (4th) as much as usual, his game is much more well-rounded than people give him credit for. If his putter is on, I see no reason he can’t win this event for a 3rd time.
Brooks Koepka ($11,200)
As the leader of the Brooks Koepka fan club, I was both thrilled and upset at his brilliant performance at the PGA Championship. I was upset because I wasn’t on him last week due to coming of his recent ankle injury. It didn’t seem to bother him as he posted an impressive -9 in route to a 4th place finish. Brooks did what he does best, and that’s rattle off putts in effortless fashion. He finished ranked third in putting. He was erratic off the tee, but that might not punish him too much this week. Watson finished 3rd to last in driving accuracy last year, and he ended up doing just fine. Koepka has the added benefit of a potential Ryder Cup berth on the line, so I think he’ll push the envelope like he did last week.
Paul Casey ($9,900)
I don’t mind the likes of Matt Kuchar and Zach Johnson, but I expect their ownership to be very high, so I’ll likely be fading. They seem to be locks for a Top 25, but I don’t know if I’m comfortable paying for them because I don’t think they have a great chance of winning. Paul Casey, on the other hand, is a much riskier proposition. Casey has missed the cut in three of his last five events. Two of those were majors, so they are forgivable. The non-missed cuts were a T10 at the PGA Championship and a T16 at the WGC Bridgestone. All four of his rounds at the PGA Championship were under par, so it was nice to see some consistency. Casey finished second in a playoff last year, so he also has some history here. Like many of the players listed here, Casey thrives from Tee-to-Green (23rd) and Greens in Regulation (13th). If he can continue to putt better (90th in SG: Putting), he’ll be on his way to another Top 10 and contention for another victory.
Francesco Molinari ($8,900)
If they had played four more rounds at the PGA Championship, Molinari would have been the runaway champion. What am I talking about, you ask? Molinari improved by at least a stroke in every round (71-70-68-67) so he clearly would have shot 66-65-64-63 had it played it four more times. Okay, sorry for the dumb joke. Seriously, Molinari has been rounding into form. In his last five events, he has finished in the Top 40 in all of them, including two Top 10s. Despite playing in some of the hardest venues on US Soil (primarily majors), Molinari still ranks in the Top 20 in SG: Approach-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Brendan Steele ($8,500)
I was on Brendan Steele last week (heck, he was just $6,000), but he sputtered down the stretch to miss the cut by two strokes. That might have been the best thing to happen for his ownership this week. Many won’t be looking to target a guy who has missed two straight cuts. The good news, if there is any, is that Steele’s big issue has been relegated to his putter. He comes to Connecticut, where he has finished in the Top 25 in his last three appearances. I can’t overstate how important familiarity with the greens and confidence are when it comes to putting. Steele is 35th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 18th in GIR, so he checks the boxes (other than putting). I think he rebounds in a big way and registers another Top 25.
Tyrrell Hatton ($7,700)
Tyrrell Hatton is on his way to becoming a superstar and this could be the week he claims his first victory of the US Tour. Hatton has been one of the hottest players in all of golf with three straight Top 10, including two in Major Championships. The other was a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open. Hatton doesn’t have enough data to rank in categories on the PGA Tour website, but the results speak for themselves. In addition to his three recent Top 10s, he has three other Top 10s. Like Koeka above, Hatton will also be fighting for a Ryder Cup bid. Another solid performance could be enough to lock up that coveted spot on the European Team.
Punt Plays
Retief Goosen ($7,000)
Aaron Baddeley ($6,900)
Russell Henley ($6,400)
Chad Campbell ($6,200)