PGA DFS Preview: Valero Texas Open
I’ll add an update to how last week’s picks went later this afternoon, but wanted to get this week’s selections out ahead of time. Check back later for any potential revisions as well as a review of last week’s tournament.
Jimmy Walker ($11,200)
I tried to move off of Jimmy Walker this week, but everything seemed to point in his direction. Yes, he is the most expensive golfer in the field and normally more expensive than we’d like to pay for someone of his caliber, but all signs point to him having an excellent week and paying off his price tag. First is the recent form. Walker has made 10/11 cuts, has three Top 10s, and six Top 25s. Even though he didn’t play particularly well at The Masters, he still managed to grind out a 29th place finish. Before that, he had back-to-back Top 20 finishes. Next is his history here, most notably a victory last year. I don’t often select players trying to defend their titles due to how hard it is to repeat, but I think Walker has a shot this week. Last, Walker is a marksman from some of the key distances this week. He ranks in the Top 10 in Approaches from 125-150 yards, and 150-175 yards. This should lead to plenty of birdie opportunities for him. I think this is a rare week where many will chose to go away from the “stars and scrubs” and instead move towards a balanced lineup. This could keep his ownership lower due to his top price.
J.B. Holmes ($10,100)
I warned everyone last weekend that I’m the opposite of the “Brandt Snedeker whisperer” and that they should run away when I recommend him. The opposite is true with J.B. Holmes. I have a pretty good track record with him, and think he is in a great spot this week. Holmes used to be a guy that couldn’t be counted on for consistency and constantly missed cuts. This year, he has shown a drastic improvement in that regard. He has made all eight cuts, and has four Top 10s, including an impressive 4th place at The Masters. In addition, he has two 11th place tallies which don’t count towards Top 10s, but shows how good he has been. Holmes ranks 3rd in Driving Distance, averaging a ridiculous 310+ yards off the tee. This hasn’t translated well to Par 5 Scoring (109th), but ranked 19th in this category last year, so I would imagine it is due for some improvement. Holmes’ biggest weakness has always been the flat stick. If he can manage to roll in some putts, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Charley Hoffman ($9,600)
Charley “First 36 Holes” Hoffman is an intriguing play this week. It seems that most like him to an extent, but are worried about both his potentially high ownership as well has his propensity to collapse during the weekend. Despite some consistently bad golf on Saturdays and Sundays this year, Hoffman has managed to pile up five straight finishes in the Top 33. Unfortunately he hasn’t had a round below 75 on Sunday during that stretch. I think this is the week he puts it all together. One of the primary reasons is his sparkling track record here. Since the event moved here in 2010, he hasn’t finished worse than 13th. None of the numbers jump off the page at you, largely due to the fact that they are brought down significantly when Hoffman has been tanking over the weekend. I don’t think his ownership will be too high because people have been burned by him lately.
Billy Horschel ($9,400)
People will look at Billy Horshel’s game log and see the following performances in recent weeks (oldest to most recent): 20th, 17th, 54th. They’ll think, “Aww. Horschel looked like he was starting to get it together, but I guess it was just a mirage.” and move on. In reality, Horschel had glimmers of brilliance at the RBC Heritage, shooting a 66 on Friday to vault up the leaderboard. He wasn’t able to keep up the momentum, but the flashes were there. The talent for Horschel is off the charts, he just hasn’t been able to put it all together lately. His numbers don’t show it this year due to his miserable start, but when he’s going, he’s one of the best tee-to-green players on Tour. Horschel also seems to play his best golf on tougher courses, which is a good sign for this week. Horschel has some of the best history here of the entire field. He finished 3rd here in 2013th and 2015. He putted extremely well both times, finishing first in SG:Putting in 2013 and 6th in 2015. Confidence on greens is an amazing thing. If he manages to roll in a few putts early to get his confidence up, watch out.
Jason Kokrak ($9,300)
Everyone always sees Jason Kokrak and assumes he is a bomber with no other real attributes on the golf course. First of all, they aren’t wrong about the bomber assumption. Kokrak is 6th in Driving Distance, but in reality, he seems to be dialing it back most of the time to ensure he has some semblance of accuracy to the shot. Kokrak’s also shown the ability to have some excellent iron play, especially at medium distances (28th from 150-175). He performs well on Par 5s, which should be a huge benefit here. Speaking of, he has performed really well at TPC San Antonio in the past. He has two Top 15s in his last three visits here. I don’t expect Kokrak to be highly owned due to quality options around him, but he could be the difference-maker in tournaments.
Brendan Steele ($8,800)
This pick goes against everything I’ve ever said here each week. I’ve repeatedly preached not allowing course history to outweigh recent form, yet here I am recommending Steele after back-to-back missed cuts. Here’s why I think it’s different than someone like Matt Every or other players who have had success at venues but came into the event in poor form. It’s simple: Brendan Steele is a good golfer, and many of those others were not. Steele is inconsistent, but still managed to finish last year with 11 Top 25s and a Top 50 finish in the FedEx Cup standings. This year, he already has four Top 25s, although he has managed to miss the cut four times in twelve tries. Oh yea, that history we talked about? He won here in 2011, 4th in 2012, and 8th in 2015. Distance his recent showings, he still ranks well in Driving Distance (17th), GIR (25th), and Par 5 Scoring (25th).
Patrick Rodgers ($7,300)
I went back and forth between Rodgers and Aaron Baddeley, and ended up with Rodgers for a few reasons. First, Baddeley has had a clear trend of following up good performances with miserable ones, and he’s coming off a solid showing at the RBC Heritage. There might not be anything to it, but it’s something to consider. Second, Rodgers plays much better on long courses due to his length (23rd in Driving Distance). He is also accurate (15th in GIR) and crushes Par 5s (10th in Par 5 Scoring). The last reason is that Rodgers putts much better on Bermuda greens. He isn’t a great putter overall, but he seems to prefer the Bermuda and is likely to roll in more putts on it. Some would say that going “too deep”, but it’s important to account for things like this, especially when golf is such a mental game. Rodgers is a high risk, high reward option for a cheap price.