PGA DFS Preview: Wells Fargo Championship
As with any sport, golf is a game of inches. An inch one way or another could be the difference in a putt rolling in, or a drive going out of bounds. Each week, there are thousands of these 50/50 type situation going on, and in the end, they generally even out. So for each week you feel like you get screwed with a player missing the cut by one stroke, there’s probably an instance where you had someone just sneak through. Just keep that in perspective that if you play long enough, it’ll all even out. Anyways, on to the picks review from last week…
Zurich Classic Picks Review
Jason Day and Justin Rose were my two “studs” from last week as far as pricing at least. Day held up his end of the bargain by finishing in a tie for 5th. Rose, on the other hand, could never get things going. He started with a solid 34 (-2) on the front 9 of his first round, but faltered on the back 9 to finish at even par. It was more of the same on Friday. He tried to rally down the stretch, but eventually missed the cut by two strokes. Luke List’s bogey on the final hole was enough for him to miss the weekend as well, which was the only other missed cut. Patton Kizzire (8th), Charles Howell III (11th), and Will Wilcox (15th) all joined Day in the Top 15. Billy Horschel (36th) and Jamie Donaldson (48th) made the cut, but were unspectacular. Overall, it was another solid week. Rose was a huge disappointment, but everyone else came through in a decent way. We’ll give it a B and try to improve this week.
Wells Fargo Championship Picks
Rory McIlroy ($12,800)
It was really tempting to save the almost $2,000 to go with someone like Rickie Fowler, but I think Rory will be worth the price of admission this week. I realize he probably needs a Top 5 to warrant the price, but I expect him to accomplish that. McIlroy is rounding into form and has two Top 10s in his last three outings, including a 10th place finish at The Masters. Rory lines up well for this course as he drives the ball far (13 in Driving Distance), finds greens quickly (29th in GIR, 8th in SG:T2G), and scores well on Par 5s (1st in Par 5 Scoring). I think Rory gets it done with a victory and cements himself as a force to be reckoned with going into the Players Championship.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)
While I don’t mind anyone from the $10,900 to $9,500 range, I don’t love any of them enough to pay up, especially if I’m going to be rostering Rory. Matsuyama has been tremendous lately, finishing in the Top 7 in back-to-back events. He had a win just a few short months ago in addition to another Top 5. Matsuyama has some course history and finished in the Top 20 last year. He is 12th in Greens in Regulation (GIR), 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 1st in Birdie Rate. I think he’ll be criminally under-owned (could be wrong, difficult to get a pulse on ownership for this week) and makes for a nice play at this price.
Byeong-Hun An ($8,600)
I’m kicking myself for not going with An last week. He was on my list of 12 golfers, but didn’t make the final cut for my write-up or my lineups. An went on to finish 2nd at The Zurich Classic, a phenomenal value at his cheap price tag. The price is up, but I still think it’s a fair one to pay. Other than a disappointing missed cut at the Masters (understandable given the magnitude and the fact that it was An’s first time), An has made four cuts, including two inside the Top 20. He also has impressive finishes in the Dell Match Play event (9th) and three Top 10s on the European Tour. An doesn’t have enough data to accurately plot him in several of the key categories, but his game is well-rounded, with no gaping flaws other than an inconsistent putter. I think the price bump will keep people off of him, leading to low ownerships.
Daniel Berger ($8,400)
I wasn’t in love with Berger last week, although it had nothing to do with his current form or overall game. He was simply too highly priced for me. This week, his price is back down, due in large part to a better field in this event. Berger plays well on long courses and putts better on Bermuda greens. In his only appearance here last season, he finished a respectable 28th. A slow start to the year (missed cut three of first five events) has led to some misconstrued numbers, but Berger does a little bit of everything when he’s going well. Last season, he finished in the Top 30 in Driving Distance (18th), GIR (30th) and SG:T2G (30th). Those have dropped slightly in 2016, but his recent form numbers have been similar. Berger has four consecutive Top 20s (including three in the Top 11), and I think he makes it five straight this week.
Charles Howell III ($8,100)
Seriously, who did Charles Howell III screw over at DraftKings that they continually price him so low? I understand that this field is far more loaded than last week’s, but a price drop of $600 after another solid showing (11th) feels wrong. That makes three straight Top 25s for Howell III, who is playing the best golf of his career this season. He has made an impressive 15/16 cuts and already has four Top 10s (and two 11th places as well). Howell also benefits from playing better on longer courses. I’ve mentioned multiple times that I don’t quite think CHIII has the stuff to get a win at this point, but it’s hard to argue with continual Top 25s for a reasonable price. The stability he provides allows us to take some chances elsewhere.
Gary Woodland ($7,800)
Woodland is a guy who I have never written up before, but has made it into my lineups on several occasions lately. He always seems to be the last guy that just seems to work salary-wise in my lineups. Woodland started the year hot, hit a cold streak, and has been playing well again lately. He has made 10/11 cuts and has four Top 25s. If you polled 100 PGA DFS players and asked who the leader in Driving Distance is, who would receive votes? Bubba, J.B Holmes, Dustin Johnson, and Finau would probably be at the top of the list. The actual leader in Driving Distance? Gary Woodland. Woodland has parlayed his distance into other stats like Greens in Regulation (31st) and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (19th). In addition to Driving Distance, he ranks first in Going for the Green – Birdie or Better percentage and Par 5 Birdie or Better. Like Howell III, I don’t think he’ll be in contention for a victory, but another Top 20 or better seems well within the realm of possibility.
Patton Kizzire ($7,700)
Recycling the write-up from last week with a few modifications because there is little reason to change it. The DFS community has known about Patton Kizzire for a while now, but it’s only a matter of time before everyone else finds out about him too. Kizzire has been a bit of a late bloomer, but the potential is immense. He stands at 6’5 215, but he doesn’t do the majority of his damage off the tee (in fact, his driver is often his biggest weakness). Instead, Kizzire has developed into one of the best putters on Tour this season. He ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Putting and can pour in the birdies in a hurry (19th in Birdie Average). Other than a missed cut a few weeks ago at the Houston Open, he has been really good lately, registering finishes of 14th, 33rd, 26th, and 8th (twice) during the calendar year. He has back-to-back Top 15s and appears to be hitting his stride. Unlike the two budget options above, I think Kizzire has the ability to win this week if he puts it all together.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,700)
I went back and forth between Kizzire and Grillo, but ended up needing to write up both of them. If you are looking for just one, I would recommend Kizzire for cash games and Grillo for GPPs as Grillo will be much lower owned. Grillo sludged through the majority of The Masters, playing average golf and trying to survive difficult conditions and an even tougher course. Then, the weather calmed down and Grillo finished with a flurry of birdies on four of the last five holes, vaulting him into the Top 20. Even though this was a while ago, I think this momentum can carry over to this week. Grillo’s stats are difficult to plot as he doesn’t partake in many events (on the PGA or European Tour), but he is an excellent ball striker who puts the ball in the fairway and on the green. I think he’ll fly under the radar and makes for a nice contrarian play.
Harold Varner III ($6,900)
I have been hesitant to get on the Harold Varner III train, and I was still hesitant leading into this week, until I saw his price on DraftKings. I expected him to be priced like the three guys mentioned above him instead of the likes of Chad Collins and Spencer Levin (no offense to those guys). The potential has always been there with Varner, who is only 25, but he has only recently begun to put all the pieces together. Note: Any rankings mentioned in the following section prior to this year (2015 and earlier) will be from the Web.com. Varner has always done two things really well. First, he drives the ball a long way. His Driving Distance (19th) is actually way down this year, but when he opens things up, he can hit it as far as anyone. He additionally excels in hitting greens (20th in 2015 and 3rd in 2014). Varner III is coming off back-to-back Top 10s (8th and 9th), and I think he continues the momentum this week.