PGA DFS Preview: WGC Bridgestone Invitational
Let’s start with the good news. All seven of my selections last week made the cut. It’s the first time in quite a while that I’ve had 100% make the cut, especially since I’ve been writing up more players each week. Unfortunately, no one did enough with their opportunity to make it a great week. Kevin Streelman (12th) and Daniel Summerhays (21st) definitely paid for their cheap price tags. The others finished between 39th and 44th, which wasn’t terrible, but disappointing, especially when consider the price tags of the likes of Patrick Reed and Brendan Steele.
Overall, it’s hard to give much better than a B-. You probably did okay in cash games with some of the players, but you weren’t winning any GPPs.
WGC Bridgestone Invitational Picks
Jason Day ($12,100)
Here’s the scary thing for Jason Day. He played one of his worst opening rounds in recent memory (76), never fully played up to his potential, and still finished inside the Top 10 at Oakmont. Day still has three wins in his last eight starts and is the best player in the world. He doesn’t have to be at his A+ game to win, but he’ll need to be better than his B- at Oakmont. Day does everything well, but his biggest asset is his putting ability, where he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Putting. Similar to Spieth, Day’s putter can often carry him if other parts of his game are struggling. This week, I think the rest of his game shows up too and he competes for yet another victory.
Brooks Koepka ($9,900)
My affinity for Koepka is well-documented, but he has given me little reason to shy away from him lately. Koepka brings a combination of recent form plus some past history in this event (albeit just one year). In his debut here last season, he finished in a tie for 6th and was the only player to be in red numbers in all four rounds. His recent form has been even more impressive as he is coming off of 13-2-2 finishes in his last three events. Koepka thrives in two main areas: Off-the-tee (5th) due partially to Driving Distance (14th) and also putting (35th), although he hasn’t been as good lately. Some of his putting struggles can be attributed to really hard courses like Oakmont, so I think he’ll rebound with the flatstick in a big way.
Shane Lowry ($8,700)
Many will say that Shane Lowry “choked” away the U.S. Open, when in reality, he just happened to have his worst round at the wrong time. Yes, there were clearly nerves at play, but it was a really difficult course, and almost all the players were on the wrong end of a round at some point. In looking at the positives, Lowry was brilliant during the first three rounds. Lowry is a big guy, but he is surprisingly not that long off the tee, however, he is quite accurate. Because of this, he is 14th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Accuracy off the tee will be crucial this week, and I think Lowry will have an advantage in this area. I think he rebounds from the heartbreak with another Top 10 showing.
Jason Dufner ($8,500)
Dufner has been making his way into this write-up frequently over the last few months. At the beginning of the year, Dufner looked completely lost, but he has found his form lately. He has three Top 25s in his last four outings, including a T8 at the U.S. Open. Dufner has some course history here as well. In his last three tries, he has two Top 10s at Firestone. Dufner is an accurate player, especially on approach shots and ranks 7th in Greens in Regulation (GIR). He’s also 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and 21st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Dufner’s biggest weakness this season has been putting (156th in Strokes Gained: Putting), but this has been much better lately. Confidence is a magical thing, especially when it comes to putting. Dufner keeps the momentum rolling and puts together another solid performance this week.
Daniel Berger ($8,200)
Berger has proven lately that he’s not just another flash in the pan, and that he intends on staying relevant for years to come. Berger splashed onto the scene by winning the St. Jude Classic, but then followed it up with a solid showing at the U.S. Open, finishing 37th. That place might not seem like much, but Berger had a chance at a Top 10 before faltering with a 77 on Sunday. I worry about Berger’s accuracy off the tee (150th), but think he can make up for it due to his stellar short game. He ranks in the Top 40 in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting. These are some of the categories that directly impacting scoring the most, which is why Berger has had some success lately.
Kevin Na ($7,300)
I have mentioned accuracy far more than driving distance thus far, which means that Kevin Na is squarely in play this week. Like Jason Day, Na had a miserable first round at the U.S. Open and then rebounded with three good ones (68, 69, 69) to finish at one over, good for 7th place. This was by far Na’s best result lately, but he is trending in the right direction. As I mentioned before, Na is an Accurate Driver (35th), and also has great touch approaching (11th) and around (30th) the green. For just $7,300, I think Na is a tremendous value with Top 20 potential, even in a loaded field.