PGA DFS Preview: Zurich Classic
Last week’s picks were quite the mixed bag. There wasn’t much in between. They were either really good and placed highly or they missed the cut. I guess that’s better than a bunch of wishy-washy players in the mid-40s right? Jimmy Walker headlined the players who missed the cut, joining Jason Kokrak (by one stroke) and Patrick Rodgers. That means I only got 4/7 through the cut, which isn’t good. So that’s the bad news. The good news is those four all finished in the Top 13. Holmes (13th) slightly underperformed, but Horschel (4th) and Steele (13th) both outperformed theirs.
Most importantly, we nailed the winner in Charley Hoffman. Despite calling him Charley “First 36 Holes” Hoffman last week, I also added that “I think this is the week he puts it all together.” He finally did it! The guy had been deserving of a top finish for a while, and I’m happy he finally got it done. Overall, it was a difficult week to rate, but somewhere around a B feels right to balance out the missed cuts with the top finishes.
Zurich Classic Picks
Jason Day ($12,500)
Here’s the dilemma. This tournament doesn’t have a ton of depth, especially at the low end. So if you spend up for someone like Day, you’re leaving yourself a bit of a crapshoot at the bottom end and hoping for a few scrubs to come through. The other side of the equation is fading Day and hoping he doesn’t run away with this tournament. Quite frankly, I’d rather have the best player in the world (yes, I think that) in a weak field and roll the dice with some scrubs. You’ve probably stopped reading by now because no one needs to tell you why Day is a good play, but I’ll keep going for the few that are still reading. Day is a wizard with the putter and ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Putting performances can vary from year-to-year, but Day finished 6th in this category last year, so clearly it’s not a fluke. Day finished 4th here last year, so there’s another reason if course history is your thing.
Justin Rose ($11,800)
There are three players that stand head and shoulders above the rest in this tournament. One of them is mentioned above, and the other two are Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose. Some will stay away from Fowler due to his “SB2K16” escapades, but that doesn’t really deter me so much, it’s his recent lack of form (most importantly) and history here (somewhat important). Rose, on the other hand, has finished outside the Top 17 just ONCE this entire season in eight starts (a strange missed cut at the Farmers Insurance). Four of those were Top 10s, although he hasn’t been able to crack the win column this year. In an undermanned field, I think that could change this week. It would be a repeat performance, as Rose won here just last year.
Billy Horschel ($10,300)
Here is the excerpt from my Horschel write-up last week “The talent for Horschel is off the charts, he just hasn’t been able to put it all together lately. His numbers don’t show it this year due to his miserable start, but when he’s going, he’s one of the best tee-to-green players on Tour.” I was banking on Horschel starting to put it all together, and it looks like he’s starting to do that. Horschel is in the same price range as Daniel Berger, who I think will be much higher owned due to his impressive game log (10th, 5th, and 11th in last three starts). In addition to his recent hot form, Horschel won here in 2013, so there is some history here. As I mentioned last week, it’s hard to point to solid numbers for Horschel because he started the year poorly, but check out his 2014 numbers to see what he’s capable of when he’s on his game.
Charles Howell III ($8,700)
At this price point, it was a close decision between Charles Howell III and Danny Lee. In the end, I went with CHIII due to his stability throughout this year. Howell III has made an impressive 14/15 cuts and an even more impressive 11 Top 25s. Sure, he hasn’t managed to find his way to the top of the leaderboard, but this kind of consistency is something we generally only see from elite golfers. Howell has done it with great balance. In skimming through his stats, you won’t find many weaknesses. He ranks in the Top 41 in Par 3 (41), Par 4 (16th), and Par 5 Scoring (17th). He drives it far (18th in Driving Distance) and also hits plenty of greens (33rd in GIR). He’s 31st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Really the only slight knock is his putter (70th in SG:Putting), but even it isn’t awful. If he can manage to roll in just a few more putts, he might be able to turn some of these Top 25s into Top 5s or even a win. Also, look for Howell III to start strong. He ranks first on Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average. If he gets off to another good start, watch out.
Patton Kizzire ($8,200)
The DFS community has known about Patton Kizzire for a while now, but it’s only a matter of time before everyone else finds out about him too. Kizzire has been a bit of a late bloomer, but the potential is immense. He stands at 6’5 215, but he doesn’t do the majority of his damage off the tee (in fact, his driver is often his biggest weakness). Instead, Kizzire has developed into one of the best putters on Tour this season. He ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting and can pour in the birdies in a hurry (20th in Birdie or Better). Other than a missed cut a few weeks ago at the Houston Open, he has been really good lately, registering finishes of 14th, 33rd, 26th, and 8th during the calendar year. I don’t think he quite possesses the overall game to win this even, but I think he can contend for a Top 10.
Jamie Donaldson ($7,600)
Jamie Donaldson generally flies under the radar in DFS because he spends the majority of his time on the European tour. He has played in just six Tour events this year, and he has made the cut in all of them. He has three Top 25s, including an impressive 21st at The Masters. Like Kizzire above, Donaldson’s success has been largely due to his putting prowess. He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Donaldson has also played Par 3s very well (20th in Par 3 Scoring), which should be a valuable asset this week. Donaldson should be very-low owned and provides Top 20 upside for a cheap price.
Luke List ($7,400)
If you look at List on DraftKings, you’ll notice a few things that don’t seem too promising. First, he’s only made 8/15 cuts, barely better than 50%. Next, you’ll see that he’s averaged just 54.4 FPPG, far below what we’re looking for in a DFS target. A closer look shows that List started the year terribly, missing the cut in six of his first eight starts. Since then, he’s made the cut in six of seven. When List makes the cut, he finishes well too, registering two Top 10s and four Top 25s. List doesn’t match up particularly well with this course, but his tee-to-green game (27th in that area) should carry over. He’ll need to putt better than his has lately to make a push, but I think his raw abilities will be enough to make the cut and challenge for a Top 25 finish.
Will Wilcox
Waiting on Wilcox’s Twitter status to see if we should play him or not! Stay tuned for updates.