PGA DFS: Round 2 Showdown Picks & Projections - Farmers Insurance Open

Showdown Picks and Projections – Round 2

Weather Forecasts

Round 1 Scoring Averages

  • South Coure (SC): 72.24
  • North Course (NC): 69.74

As expected, there was a major difference in scoring between the North and South courses in the first round. The South Course played 2.5 strokes more difficult on average. For showdown, we should be focusing all of our attention on those playing the North Course in round two. To help with the optimizer, I went ahead and gave everyone playing the North Course a 10% boost to their projection. I also want to point out that we are expecting 20+ MPH gusts on Thursday, so scoring as a whole will be a lot worse compared to the first round.

Top Targets

  • Tony Finau: $9,700 (lost 4.99 strokes putting in R1)
  • Justin Thomas: $9,300 (has all the shots for windy conditions)

Tournament Targets

  • Keegan Bradley: $7,800
  • Martin Laird: $7,000

Salaries, Odds, In-Tournament Statistics, and Projections

LineupHQ w/ Projections
Golfer Pos Score Tee Group Tee Time R2 Course OTT APP ATG SGP BS T2G DK Salary Proj Pt / $
Jon Rahm 115 1 4 9:30 AM NC 0.80 -1.19 -0.70 0.30 -0.39 -1.09 $11,300 50.9 4.50
Xander Schauffele 92 E 11 10:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $10,400 44.5 4.28
Will Zalatoris 19 -4 10 10:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $10,000 45.9 4.59
Collin Morikawa 11 -5 10 10:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $9,800 40.3 4.11
Tony Finau 115 1 4 9:30 AM NC 1.37 2.08 0.76 -4.99 3.45 4.21 $9,700 47.5 4.90
Max Homa 19 -4 10 10:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $9,400 43.1 4.59
Justin Thomas 19 -4 4 9:30 AM NC 1.07 2.78 0.54 -0.17 3.85 4.39 $9,300 46.5 5.00
Hideki Matsuyama 49 -2 11 10:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $9,200 36.5 3.96
Taylor Montgomery 11 -5 2 9:10 AM NC -0.10 2.12 1.44 1.76 2.02 3.46 $9,100 43.7 4.80
Jason Day 19 -4 9 10:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $9,000 39.0 4.33
Maverick McNealy 34 -3 8 10:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $8,900 36.5 4.10
Sahith Theegala 5 -6 9 10:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $8,800 35.7 4.06
Sungjae Im 19 -4 3 9:20 AM NC -0.73 2.00 1.16 1.79 1.27 2.43 $8,700 47.5 5.46
J.J. Spaun 49 -2 11 10:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $8,600 34.9 4.06
Si Woo Kim 34 -3 3 9:20 AM NC 0.09 0.41 1.01 1.70 0.50 1.51 $8,500 40.6 4.78
Adam Hadwin 49 -2 1 9:00 AM NC -0.48 1.10 1.38 0.22 0.62 2.00 $8,400 39.7 4.73
Taylor Pendrith 34 -3 2 9:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $8,300 36.5 4.39
Wyndham Clark 19 -4 4 9:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $8,200 32.9 4.01
Cameron Davis 154 7 9 10:20 AM NC 0.19 -1.53 -0.62 -4.82 -1.34 -1.96 $8,100 37.1 4.58
Thomas Detry 19 -4 4 9:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $8,000 32.7 4.09
Hayden Buckley 5 -6 10 10:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $8,000 30.5 3.81
Justin Rose 115 1 2 9:10 AM NC 0.04 1.61 -0.19 -2.24 1.65 1.46 $7,900 35.8 4.53
Luke List 11 -5 9 10:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,900 28.6 3.61
Keegan Bradley 49 -2 3 9:20 AM NC -0.21 1.87 0.97 -0.41 1.66 2.63 $7,800 41.9 5.37
Will Gordon 92 E 13 11:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,800 32.8 4.21
Sebastian Munoz 115 1 9 10:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,700 30.7 3.99
Ryan Palmer 71 -1 7 10:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,700 26.9 3.49
Patrick Rodgers 34 -3 1 9:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,600 33.9 4.46
Davis Riley 34 -3 12 10:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,600 32.2 4.24
Davis Thompson 71 -1 6 9:50 AM NC 0.67 0.41 -0.36 0.61 1.08 0.72 $7,600 30.8 4.06
Alex Smalley 71 -1 1 9:00 AM NC 0.61 -0.34 0.61 0.34 0.27 0.88 $7,500 36.4 4.85
Gary Woodland 5 -6 3 9:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,500 33.6 4.48
Brendan Steele 4 -7 8 10:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,500 31.1 4.15
Byeong-Hun An 19 -4 1 9:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,500 22.9 3.06
Rickie Fowler 92 E 2 9:10 AM NC 0.52 -0.28 -0.91 0.88 0.24 -0.67 $7,400 29.9 4.04
Justin Suh 19 -4 12 10:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,400 28.8 3.89
Harris English 144 4 9 10:20 AM NC -1.64 0.35 -2.15 -0.35 -1.29 -3.44 $7,400 24.9 3.37
Adam Svensson 128 2 9 10:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,400 24.5 3.32
Kurt Kitayama 150 5 4 9:30 AM NC 0.45 -0.11 -0.89 -4.23 0.34 -0.55 $7,300 35.9 4.92
Scott Stallings 92 E 10 10:30 AM NC 0.37 -0.33 0.48 -0.31 0.04 0.52 $7,300 34.7 4.76
Ben Taylor 49 -2 5 9:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,300 33.6 4.61
Jhonattan Vegas 19 -4 2 9:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,300 30.6 4.19
Trey Mullinax 71 -1 9 10:20 AM NC -1.86 2.78 -0.33 0.63 0.92 0.59 $7,300 29.3 4.01
Ben Griffin 11 -5 12 10:50 AM NC 1.34 -0.35 2.18 2.04 0.99 3.17 $7,200 36.9 5.12
Dean Burmester 71 -1 11 10:40 AM NC 1.19 0.97 -0.47 -0.47 2.16 1.69 $7,200 32.7 4.54
Nick Hardy 71 -1 11 10:40 AM NC 1.33 0.44 -0.68 0.13 1.77 1.09 $7,200 32.3 4.49
Aaron Rai 1 -8 4 9:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,200 31.9 4.43
Stephan Jaeger 34 -3 7 10:00 AM NC 1.08 0.49 -0.90 2.54 1.57 0.67 $7,200 30.7 4.27
Lanto Griffin 11 -5 3 9:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,200 28.8 3.99
Beau Hossler 115 1 8 10:10 AM NC 1.43 0.57 -0.77 -2.01 2.00 1.23 $7,100 31.1 4.37
Kevin Yu 115 1 13 11:00 AM NC -0.37 1.36 -0.60 -1.18 0.99 0.39 $7,100 27.8 3.91
Joseph Bramlett 49 -2 5 9:40 AM NC 0.01 1.73 -0.53 1.28 1.74 1.21 $7,100 25.4 3.57
Adam Long 71 -1 1 9:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,100 25.0 3.52
Doug Ghim 150 5 7 10:00 AM NC -0.11 -3.00 -0.23 -1.45 -3.11 -3.34 $7,100 21.6 3.05
Charley Hoffman 19 -4 2 9:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,100 20.9 2.94
Harry Higgs 11 -5 6 9:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,100 15.4 2.17
Emiliano Grillo 92 E 5 9:40 AM NC -0.39 -0.13 -0.80 1.65 -0.52 -1.32 $7,000 34.9 4.99
Robby Shelton 49 -2 13 11:00 AM NC 0.73 2.81 0.12 -1.44 3.54 3.66 $7,000 33.4 4.78
Martin Laird 92 E 10 10:30 AM NC 0.02 1.63 -1.15 -0.27 1.65 0.50 $7,000 32.1 4.59
Carl Yuan 92 E 11 10:40 AM NC 0.87 1.09 0.06 -1.81 1.96 2.02 $7,000 29.4 4.20
Patton Kizzire 49 -2 4 9:30 AM NC 0.34 -0.99 1.12 1.75 -0.65 0.47 $7,000 25.2 3.60
Michael Thompson 34 -3 9 10:20 AM NC 0.19 0.43 -0.57 3.16 0.62 0.05 $7,000 24.3 3.47
Ben Martin 49 -2 7 10:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,000 20.9 2.99
Henrik Norlander 49 -2 10 10:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $7,000 19.1 2.74
Seonghyeon Kim 11 -5 11 10:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,900 29.8 4.33
Taylor Moore 92 E 10 10:30 AM NC -0.26 -0.38 0.58 0.28 -0.64 -0.06 $6,900 28.7 4.16
Austin Eckroat 71 -1 12 10:50 AM NC -0.45 -0.68 -0.73 3.08 -1.13 -1.86 $6,900 26.9 3.90
Austin Smotherman 136 3 7 10:00 AM NC 0.33 -4.14 1.08 -0.05 -3.81 -2.73 $6,900 25.9 3.75
Matthys Daffue 19 -4 6 9:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,900 25.8 3.74
Harry Hall 71 -1 12 10:50 AM NC -1.06 -0.23 -0.64 3.14 -1.29 -1.93 $6,900 24.0 3.47
Scott Piercy 34 -3 3 9:20 AM NC -0.48 1.47 0.72 1.51 0.99 1.71 $6,900 23.8 3.45
Aaron Baddeley 71 -1 7 10:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,900 23.4 3.38
Garrick Higgo 5 -6 3 9:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,900 18.5 2.68
Matthew NeSmith 115 1 8 10:10 AM NC 0.65 -1.04 0.27 -0.66 -0.39 -0.12 $6,800 35.1 5.16
Kevin Streelman 115 1 3 9:20 AM NC -2.76 0.45 1.33 0.19 -2.31 -0.98 $6,800 28.7 4.21
Cameron Percy 136 3 1 9:00 AM NC 0.36 -0.75 -0.36 -2.04 -0.39 -0.75 $6,800 26.5 3.90
Eric Cole 92 E 13 11:00 AM NC -2.34 0.00 1.16 1.39 -2.34 -1.18 $6,800 25.3 3.73
Dylan Frittelli 49 -2 8 10:10 AM NC 0.82 1.26 0.06 0.08 2.08 2.14 $6,800 25.3 3.72
Cameron Champ 49 -2 9 10:20 AM NC 1.27 -1.58 1.41 1.11 -0.31 1.10 $6,800 24.4 3.59
Zecheng Dou 49 -2 13 11:00 AM NC 1.32 0.77 1.05 -0.92 2.09 3.14 $6,800 24.0 3.53
David Lingmerth 136 3 1 9:00 AM NC -1.05 -0.38 -0.17 -1.18 -1.43 -1.60 $6,800 19.6 2.89
Doc Redman 92 E 10 10:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,800 19.0 2.80
Callum Tarren 71 -1 2 9:10 AM NC 0.83 -1.44 1.52 0.31 -0.61 0.91 $6,700 33.6 5.01
Justin Lower 115 1 4 9:30 AM NC -0.60 -1.78 0.63 0.96 -2.38 -1.75 $6,700 28.4 4.23
Sam Ryder 1 -8 8 10:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,700 25.3 3.77
Zac Blair 71 -1 8 10:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,700 23.1 3.45
Danny Lee 71 -1 5 9:40 AM NC -0.37 1.10 -0.65 1.25 0.73 0.08 $6,700 22.0 3.29
Brice Garnett 92 E 2 9:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,700 21.5 3.21
Matthias Schmid 115 1 5 9:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,700 20.2 3.02
Cole Hammer 71 -1 6 9:50 AM NC -0.43 0.24 -0.18 1.48 -0.19 -0.37 $6,700 15.7 2.34
Dylan Wu 19 -4 13 11:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,700 14.6 2.19
Lee Hodges 49 -2 8 10:10 AM NC 0.76 -0.48 -0.03 1.96 0.28 0.25 $6,600 31.6 4.78
Ryan Armour 144 4 5 9:40 AM NC -1.89 -1.87 0.39 -0.30 -3.76 -3.37 $6,600 26.3 3.98
James Hahn 92 E 8 10:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,600 23.2 3.52
Tyson Alexander 92 E 5 9:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,600 20.8 3.16
Nicolas Echavarria 49 -2 6 9:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,600 20.1 3.05
Andrew Novak 5 -6 12 10:50 AM NC 0.54 2.51 0.84 2.32 3.05 3.89 $6,600 19.8 3.00
Tyler Duncan 144 4 10 10:30 AM NC -1.29 0.41 -0.78 -2.12 -0.88 -1.66 $6,600 19.7 2.98
Harrison Endycott 49 -2 12 10:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,600 17.4 2.63
Taiga Semikawa 128 2 13 11:00 AM NC 0.73 -3.89 -0.13 1.50 -3.16 -3.29 $6,600 15.5 2.35
Erik Barnes 115 1 6 9:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,500 24.1 3.71
Adam Schenk 71 -1 7 10:00 AM NC 0.55 -1.66 0.76 1.56 -1.11 -0.35 $6,500 23.8 3.65
Vincent Norrman 11 -5 12 10:50 AM NC 1.18 0.38 0.01 3.64 1.56 1.57 $6,500 21.1 3.25
Satoshi Kodaira 19 -4 2 9:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,500 20.2 3.11
Seung-Yul Noh 49 -2 4 9:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,500 20.1 3.09
Austin Cook 128 2 4 9:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,500 18.4 2.83
Keita Nakajima 34 -3 11 10:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,500 18.3 2.82
Kevin Tway 92 E 8 10:10 AM NC 0.55 -0.68 -0.19 0.54 -0.13 -0.32 $6,500 17.0 2.61
J.B. Holmes 49 -2 9 10:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,500 11.5 1.77
Sam Stevens 5 -6 11 10:40 AM NC -0.10 2.67 0.59 3.06 2.57 3.16 $6,400 24.6 3.85
Augusto Nunez 92 E 11 10:40 AM NC -1.35 1.02 1.14 -0.59 -0.33 0.81 $6,400 23.0 3.59
Michael Kim 34 -3 1 9:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,400 22.6 3.53
Paul Haley 19 -4 5 9:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,400 20.9 3.27
Sean O’Hair 34 -3 8 10:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,400 19.5 3.05
Robert Streb 49 -2 3 9:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,400 19.1 2.99
Kelly Kraft 155 8 10 10:30 AM NC -0.37 -4.86 -2.48 -0.08 -5.23 -7.71 $6,400 18.2 2.84
Brian Stuard 49 -2 2 9:10 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,400 16.5 2.58
Ryan Brehm 150 5 9 10:20 AM NC -0.44 -0.55 -2.02 -1.78 -0.99 -3.01 $6,400 12.9 2.01
Peter Malnati 34 -3 1 9:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,300 20.8 3.30
Rory Sabbatini 128 2 7 10:00 AM NC -1.51 -2.13 0.43 1.43 -3.64 -3.21 $6,300 17.5 2.77
Hank Lebioda 92 E 8 10:10 AM NC 0.84 0.34 -1.66 0.69 1.18 -0.48 $6,300 16.9 2.69
William McGirt 92 E 7 10:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,300 16.2 2.57
Cody Gribble 71 -1 4 9:30 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,300 15.6 2.48
Patrick Welch 115 1 5 9:40 AM NC 0.81 0.44 -1.59 -0.17 1.25 -0.34 $6,300 15.1 2.40
Anders Albertson 136 3 12 10:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,300 14.1 2.24
Camilo Villegas 136 3 2 9:10 AM NC -1.99 0.45 0.01 -1.26 -1.54 -1.53 $6,300 13.4 2.13
Scott Brown 34 -3 7 10:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,300 11.2 1.78
Jonathan Byrd 115 1 10 10:30 AM NC -2.45 2.07 -0.02 -0.39 -0.38 -0.40 $6,200 17.7 2.86
Kevin Roy 71 -1 11 10:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,200 17.0 2.75
Jimmy Walker 34 -3 3 9:20 AM NC 0.18 0.04 0.59 2.41 0.22 0.81 $6,200 16.4 2.65
Bill Haas 71 -1 7 10:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,200 15.9 2.56
Arjun Atwal 155 8 7 10:00 AM NC -1.58 -1.47 -1.09 -3.64 -3.05 -4.14 $6,200 12.6 2.03
Nick Watney 92 E 1 9:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,200 12.2 1.97
Scott Harrington 136 3 6 9:50 AM NC 0.10 -1.20 -0.62 -0.96 -1.10 -1.72 $6,200 12.1 1.95
Jason Dufner 150 5 1 9:00 AM NC 0.02 0.28 0.57 -5.66 0.30 0.87 $6,200 11.4 1.84
Michael Block 128 2 12 10:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,200 11.3 1.83
Trevor Cone 71 -1 13 11:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,100 20.0 3.28
Kyle Westmoreland 49 -2 11 10:40 AM NC 0.10 2.06 1.08 -1.02 2.16 3.24 $6,100 18.3 3.00
Tano Goya 49 -2 6 9:50 AM NC 0.56 -0.11 -0.02 2.07 0.45 0.43 $6,100 16.6 2.72
Brandon Matthews 71 -1 13 11:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,100 13.3 2.19
Martin Trainer 128 2 2 9:10 AM NC 0.08 -3.29 1.89 -0.46 -3.21 -1.32 $6,100 12.5 2.04
Ben Crane 144 4 1 9:00 AM NC 0.20 -3.07 -2.54 1.63 -2.87 -5.41 $6,100 12.2 2.00
Philip Knowles 92 E 13 11:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,100 12.1 1.98
Carson Young 136 3 6 9:50 AM NC 0.98 0.58 0.42 -4.48 1.56 1.98 $6,100 11.6 1.90
Michael Herrera 92 E 6 9:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,100 11.2 1.84
Spencer Levin 144 4 6 9:50 AM NC -1.10 1.26 -2.46 -1.20 0.16 -2.30 $6,100 11.0 1.80
Michael Gligic 144 4 5 9:40 AM NC -0.16 -2.29 -1.11 0.05 -2.45 -3.56 $6,000 17.5 2.91
Brent Grant 1 -8 5 9:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,000 15.1 2.51
Trevor Werbylo 71 -1 12 10:50 AM NC 0.93 -0.59 1.24 -0.37 0.34 1.58 $6,000 14.0 2.33
Jim Herman 92 E 3 9:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,000 12.0 2.00
Richy Werenski 92 E 3 9:20 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,000 11.5 1.92
Kyle Stanley 92 E 12 10:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,000 11.4 1.91
Joey Vrzich 34 -3 5 9:40 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,000 11.3 1.88
Caleb Surratt 128 2 13 11:00 AM NC 0.52 -0.09 0.69 -2.90 0.43 1.12 $6,000 11.1 1.86
Harrison Kingsley 128 2 6 9:50 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,000 11.1 1.85
Robert Garrigus 136 3 13 11:00 AM SC 0.00 0.00 $6,000 11.0 1.84

Image Credit: Imagn

Showdown Picks and Projections – Round 2

Weather Forecasts

Round 1 Scoring Averages

  • South Coure (SC): 72.24
  • North Course (NC): 69.74

As expected, there was a major difference in scoring between the North and South courses in the first round. The South Course played 2.5 strokes more difficult on average. For showdown, we should be focusing all of our attention on those playing the North Course in round two. To help with the optimizer, I went ahead and gave everyone playing the North Course a 10% boost to their projection. I also want to point out that we are expecting 20+ MPH gusts on Thursday, so scoring as a whole will be a lot worse compared to the first round.

Top Targets

Tournament Targets

Salaries, Odds, In-Tournament Statistics, and Projections

LineupHQ w/ Projections
Golfer Pos Score Tee Group Tee Time OTT APP ATG SGP BS T2G DK Salary Proj Pt / $
Jon Rahm 115 1 4 9:30 AM 0.80 -1.19 -0.70 0.30 -0.39 -1.09 $11,300 50.9 4.50
Xander Schauffele 92 E 11 10:40 AM 0.00 0.00 $10,400 44.5 4.28
Will Zalatoris 19 -4 10 10:30 AM 0.00 0.00 $10,000 45.9 4.59
Collin Morikawa 11 -5 10 10:30 AM 0.00 0.00 $9,800 40.3 4.11
Tony Finau 115 1 4 9:30 AM 1.37 2.08 0.76 -4.99 3.45 4.21 $9,700 47.5 4.90
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  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

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