PGA DFS: Round 3 Showdown Picks & Projections - Valspar Championship

Showdown Picks and Projections – Round 3

Weather Forecasts

Round 3 Preview

We officially have a cut on a Friday, which means we have tee times available for round three. As predicted, my main slate lineups absolutely imploded on Friday. The good news is that we have a few outright bets in the mix and that we can always hit up the showdown lobby. I typically like to target chasers on Saturday, but the forecast sets up well for golfers that are already near the top of the leaderboard. We have a lot of wind until about 2:00 PM local time, then some potential rain, and then the wind really dies off. If the forecast holds, the golfers that go out late will have better conditions and potentially a softer golf course.

Top Targets

  • Justin Thomas: $10,700
  • Davis Riley: $8,600
  • J.T. Poston: $8,300

Salary Savers

  • Alex Smalley: $7,600
  • Ben Martin: $7,400
  • Webb Simpson: $6,900

Salaries, Odds, In-Tournament Statistics, and Projections

LineupHQ w/ Projections
Golfer Pos Score Tee Group Tee Time OTT APP ATG SGP BS T2G DK Salary Proj Pt / $
Justin Thomas 12 -3 28 12:20 PM 1.42 0.45 0.40 0.21 1.87 2.27 $10,700 47.9 4.47
Jordan Spieth 3 -5 34 1:25 PM 1.00 0.27 0.74 1.45 1.27 2.01 $10,500 45.0 4.29
Tommy Fleetwood 3 -5 35 1:35 PM 0.12 1.52 0.81 1.02 1.64 2.45 $10,300 43.3 4.20
Justin Rose 40 E 16 10:15 AM 0.64 -0.33 0.59 0.07 0.31 0.90 $9,800 41.8 4.27
Sam Burns 40 E 13 9:45 AM 0.56 -0.12 0.61 -0.09 0.44 1.05 $9,600 38.6 4.02
Wyndham Clark 7 -4 33 1:15 PM 0.60 1.26 1.15 -0.04 1.86 3.01 $9,300 40.0 4.31
Denny McCarthy 26 -1 20 10:55 AM 0.40 1.83 0.28 -1.04 2.23 2.51 $9,100 40.3 4.42
Justin Suh 26 -1 19 10:45 AM -0.17 -1.74 0.33 3.04 -1.91 -1.58 $9,000 37.8 4.20
Byeong-Hun An 12 -3 30 12:45 PM 0.28 0.49 1.61 0.09 0.77 2.38 $8,900 35.1 3.95
Ben Griffin 26 -1 18 10:35 AM 0.58 -1.10 0.39 1.60 -0.52 -0.13 $8,800 36.8 4.18
Stephan Jaeger 7 -4 31 12:55 PM 0.66 1.52 0.47 0.33 2.18 2.65 $8,700 36.3 4.17
Davis Riley 3 -5 34 1:25 PM 0.80 1.15 -0.52 2.04 1.95 1.43 $8,600 39.5 4.60
Gary Woodland 26 -1 21 11:10 AM 1.31 0.71 -0.34 -0.22 2.02 1.68 $8,500 37.2 4.37
Maverick McNealy 26 -1 19 10:45 AM 0.32 -0.07 -0.14 1.36 0.25 0.11 $8,400 32.6 3.88
J.T. Poston 7 -4 32 1:05 PM -0.23 2.60 -1.02 1.60 2.37 1.35 $8,300 37.0 4.46
Victor Perez 26 -1 17 10:25 AM 0.79 0.09 -0.57 1.18 0.88 0.31 $8,200 36.2 4.41
Sam Ryder 52 1 11 9:20 AM 0.28 -1.87 -0.29 2.33 -1.59 -1.88 $8,000 27.5 3.44
Taylor Moore 7 -4 32 1:05 PM 1.00 0.90 0.20 0.88 1.90 2.10 $7,800 34.4 4.41
Nick Taylor 40 E 17 10:25 AM -0.08 0.03 0.60 0.42 -0.05 0.55 $7,800 34.4 4.41
Alex Smalley 12 -3 29 12:35 PM -0.16 0.26 1.39 0.98 0.10 1.49 $7,600 33.6 4.42
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 40 E 12 9:30 AM 0.69 -0.02 -0.68 0.96 0.67 -0.01 $7,600 32.3 4.25
Kramer Hickok 2 -6 36 1:45 PM 0.45 0.42 0.95 2.13 0.87 1.82 $7,500 25.4 3.39
Will Gordon 52 1 2 7:50 AM 0.61 1.23 -1.59 0.21 1.84 0.25 $7,400 34.9 4.72
Ben Martin 20 -2 27 12:10 PM 0.66 1.79 -0.51 0.02 2.45 1.94 $7,400 32.5 4.39
Joel Dahmen 40 E 12 9:30 AM 0.50 0.09 0.49 -0.12 0.59 1.08 $7,400 30.6 4.13
Adam Schenk 1 -7 36 1:45 PM 0.74 0.62 0.66 2.45 1.36 2.02 $7,400 29.2 3.94
Dylan Wu 20 -2 26 12:00 PM 0.52 0.01 1.03 0.40 0.53 1.56 $7,400 24.9 3.36
Seonghyeon Kim 26 -1 24 11:40 AM -0.18 1.15 1.43 -0.92 0.97 2.40 $7,300 31.5 4.32
David Lingmerth 20 -2 25 11:50 AM 0.14 1.61 0.71 -0.50 1.75 2.46 $7,300 26.0 3.57
Lucas Glover 12 -3 28 12:20 PM -0.04 0.56 0.28 1.67 0.52 0.80 $7,300 23.1 3.17
Garrick Higgo 52 1 5 8:20 AM 0.04 1.11 0.21 -0.89 1.15 1.36 $7,200 28.6 3.97
Patrick Rodgers 52 1 6 8:30 AM 0.46 -1.19 1.35 -0.16 -0.73 0.62 $7,200 27.3 3.79
Joseph Bramlett 52 1 9 9:00 AM 0.30 -0.02 0.19 -0.01 0.28 0.47 $7,200 27.1 3.76
David Lipsky 40 E 16 10:15 AM -0.14 0.04 0.45 0.62 -0.10 0.35 $7,200 25.2 3.50
Adam Long 12 -3 31 12:55 PM 0.36 0.43 0.64 1.04 0.79 1.43 $7,200 24.8 3.45
Ludvig Aberg 52 1 6 8:30 AM 0.13 0.54 0.52 -0.72 0.67 1.19 $7,200 19.4 2.69
Lee Hodges 40 E 15 10:05 AM 0.03 0.91 0.86 -0.83 0.94 1.80 $7,100 25.4 3.58
Ryan Gerard 52 1 1 7:40 AM 0.02 0.97 -0.28 -0.25 0.99 0.71 $7,100 21.0 2.96
Michael Kim 26 -1 22 11:20 AM 0.08 0.38 -0.15 1.16 0.46 0.31 $7,000 26.5 3.79
Matthys Daffue 52 1 1 7:40 AM 0.61 -0.19 0.03 0.02 0.42 0.45 $7,000 24.1 3.44
Kevin Streelman 52 1 10 9:10 AM 0.59 0.59 0.47 -1.18 1.18 1.65 $7,000 22.8 3.25
Matt Wallace 7 -4 33 1:15 PM -0.01 2.00 0.40 0.56 1.99 2.39 $6,900 27.3 3.96
Greyson Sigg 26 -1 23 11:30 AM 1.02 0.73 -0.98 0.70 1.75 0.77 $6,900 25.3 3.66
Webb Simpson 12 -3 27 12:10 PM -0.23 1.91 0.55 0.24 1.68 2.23 $6,900 20.6 2.99
Michael Thompson 20 -2 25 11:50 AM 0.31 0.60 -0.22 1.28 0.91 0.69 $6,800 21.8 3.20
Patton Kizzire 26 -1 20 10:55 AM 1.34 -0.90 -0.61 1.64 0.44 -0.17 $6,800 18.7 2.74
Erik Van Rooyen 52 1 4 8:10 AM 0.41 2.15 -0.27 -1.82 2.56 2.29 $6,700 23.6 3.53
Ryan Armour 52 1 7 8:40 AM 0.52 -0.68 0.12 0.52 -0.16 -0.04 $6,700 17.1 2.55
Doug Ghim 12 -3 30 12:45 PM 0.60 -0.20 1.04 1.01 0.40 1.44 $6,700 14.3 2.13
Chad Ramey 26 -1 22 11:20 AM -0.21 -0.73 0.61 1.79 -0.94 -0.33 $6,700 12.9 1.93
James Hahn 52 1 8 8:50 AM 0.10 0.43 0.43 -0.49 0.53 0.96 $6,600 21.6 3.28
Harrison Endycott 52 1 7 8:40 AM 0.19 -0.65 -0.26 1.17 -0.46 -0.72 $6,600 16.2 2.46
Andrew Novak 40 E 11 9:20 AM 1.32 -1.11 -0.39 1.14 0.21 -0.18 $6,600 16.0 2.42
Austin Smotherman 26 -1 18 10:35 AM -0.08 -1.11 1.06 1.60 -1.19 -0.13 $6,600 14.4 2.18
Carl Yuan 40 E 15 10:05 AM 0.98 -0.48 -0.18 0.66 0.50 0.32 $6,500 24.7 3.81
Henrik Norlander 52 1 3 8:00 AM 0.29 -0.63 0.12 0.68 -0.34 -0.22 $6,500 15.3 2.36
Nick Gabrelcik 40 E 14 9:55 AM 1.50 2.21 -0.87 -1.86 3.71 2.84 $6,500 12.6 1.94
Sean O’Hair 52 1 8 8:50 AM -2.76 2.08 0.44 0.70 -0.68 -0.24 $6,500 0.0 0.00
Zecheng Dou 20 -2 26 12:00 PM 0.41 0.88 0.31 0.37 1.29 1.60 $6,400 18.5 2.90
Doc Redman 52 1 2 7:50 AM 0.14 -0.43 -0.26 1.02 -0.29 -0.55 $6,400 13.0 2.02
Jason Dufner 52 1 5 8:20 AM -0.28 1.54 -0.90 0.11 1.26 0.36 $6,400 12.9 2.01
Hank Lebioda 52 1 3 8:00 AM 0.24 0.10 -0.13 0.26 0.34 0.21 $6,300 16.2 2.57
Tyson Alexander 52 1 10 9:10 AM 0.55 0.08 0.92 -1.07 0.63 1.55 $6,300 14.7 2.34
Richy Werenski 40 E 13 9:45 AM -1.58 0.76 -0.26 2.04 -0.82 -1.08 $6,300 12.7 2.02
Zac Blair 26 -1 23 11:30 AM 0.59 -0.37 -0.63 1.87 0.22 -0.41 $6,200 16.4 2.65
Trevor Cone 40 E 14 9:55 AM 0.28 -0.57 0.87 0.38 -0.29 0.58 $6,200 15.9 2.56
Ryan Brehm 26 -1 21 11:10 AM 0.82 -0.07 0.54 0.19 0.75 1.29 $6,200 12.8 2.07
Trevor Werbylo 20 -2 24 11:40 AM -0.16 2.19 0.38 -0.44 2.03 2.41 $6,100 16.6 2.73
Cody Gribble 3 -5 35 1:35 PM 0.81 1.01 -1.33 2.97 1.82 0.49 $6,100 13.1 2.14
Andrew Landry 52 1 9 9:00 AM 0.74 0.40 0.63 -1.30 1.14 1.77 $6,100 12.7 2.08
Cameron Percy 52 1 4 8:10 AM 0.20 0.40 -0.63 0.48 0.60 -0.03 $6,100 12.6 2.06
Rory Sabbatini 12 -3 29 12:35 PM -0.39 0.18 1.22 1.45 -0.21 1.01 $6,000 12.8 2.13

Image Credit: Getty Images

Showdown Picks and Projections – Round 3

Weather Forecasts

Round 3 Preview

We officially have a cut on a Friday, which means we have tee times available for round three. As predicted, my main slate lineups absolutely imploded on Friday. The good news is that we have a few outright bets in the mix and that we can always hit up the showdown lobby. I typically like to target chasers on Saturday, but the forecast sets up well for golfers that are already near the top of the leaderboard. We have a lot of wind until about 2:00 PM local time, then some potential rain, and then the wind really dies off. If the forecast holds, the golfers that go out late will have better conditions and potentially a softer golf course.

Top Targets

Tournament Targets

Salary Savers

Salaries, Odds, In-Tournament Statistics, and Projections

LineupHQ w/ Projections
Golfer Pos Score Tee Group Tee Time OTT APP ATG SGP BS T2G DK Salary Proj Pt / $
Justin Thomas 12 -3 28 12:20 PM 1.42 0.45 0.40 0.21 1.87 2.27 $10,700 47.9 4.47
Jordan Spieth 3 -5 34 1:25 PM 1.00 0.27 0.74 1.45 1.27 2.01 $10,500 45.0 4.29
Tommy Fleetwood 3 -5 35 1:35 PM 0.12 1.52 0.81 1.02 1.64 2.45 $10,300 43.3 4.20
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  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

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