PGA DFS: Round 3 Showdown Picks & Projections - Valspar Championship
Showdown Picks and Projections – Round 3
Weather Forecasts
Round 3 Preview
We officially have a cut on a Friday, which means we have tee times available for round three. As predicted, my main slate lineups absolutely imploded on Friday. The good news is that we have a few outright bets in the mix and that we can always hit up the showdown lobby. I typically like to target chasers on Saturday, but the forecast sets up well for golfers that are already near the top of the leaderboard. We have a lot of wind until about 2:00 PM local time, then some potential rain, and then the wind really dies off. If the forecast holds, the golfers that go out late will have better conditions and potentially a softer golf course.
Top Targets
- Justin Thomas: $10,700
- Davis Riley: $8,600
- J.T. Poston: $8,300
Salary Savers
- Alex Smalley: $7,600
- Ben Martin: $7,400
- Webb Simpson: $6,900
Salaries, Odds, In-Tournament Statistics, and Projections
LineupHQ w/ Projections
| Golfer | Pos | Score | Tee Group | Tee Time | OTT | APP | ATG | SGP | BS | T2G | DK Salary | Proj | Pt / $ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | 12 | -3 | 28 | 12:20 PM | 1.42 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.21 | 1.87 | 2.27 | $10,700 | 47.9 | 4.47 | |
| Jordan Spieth | 3 | -5 | 34 | 1:25 PM | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.74 | 1.45 | 1.27 | 2.01 | $10,500 | 45.0 | 4.29 | |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3 | -5 | 35 | 1:35 PM | 0.12 | 1.52 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 1.64 | 2.45 | $10,300 | 43.3 | 4.20 | |
| Justin Rose | 40 | E | 16 | 10:15 AM | 0.64 | -0.33 | 0.59 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.90 | $9,800 | 41.8 | 4.27 | |
| Sam Burns | 40 | E | 13 | 9:45 AM | 0.56 | -0.12 | 0.61 | -0.09 | 0.44 | 1.05 | $9,600 | 38.6 | 4.02 | |
| Wyndham Clark | 7 | -4 | 33 | 1:15 PM | 0.60 | 1.26 | 1.15 | -0.04 | 1.86 | 3.01 | $9,300 | 40.0 | 4.31 | |
| Denny McCarthy | 26 | -1 | 20 | 10:55 AM | 0.40 | 1.83 | 0.28 | -1.04 | 2.23 | 2.51 | $9,100 | 40.3 | 4.42 | |
| Justin Suh | 26 | -1 | 19 | 10:45 AM | -0.17 | -1.74 | 0.33 | 3.04 | -1.91 | -1.58 | $9,000 | 37.8 | 4.20 | |
| Byeong-Hun An | 12 | -3 | 30 | 12:45 PM | 0.28 | 0.49 | 1.61 | 0.09 | 0.77 | 2.38 | $8,900 | 35.1 | 3.95 | |
| Ben Griffin | 26 | -1 | 18 | 10:35 AM | 0.58 | -1.10 | 0.39 | 1.60 | -0.52 | -0.13 | $8,800 | 36.8 | 4.18 | |
| Stephan Jaeger | 7 | -4 | 31 | 12:55 PM | 0.66 | 1.52 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 2.18 | 2.65 | $8,700 | 36.3 | 4.17 | |
| Davis Riley | 3 | -5 | 34 | 1:25 PM | 0.80 | 1.15 | -0.52 | 2.04 | 1.95 | 1.43 | $8,600 | 39.5 | 4.60 | |
| Gary Woodland | 26 | -1 | 21 | 11:10 AM | 1.31 | 0.71 | -0.34 | -0.22 | 2.02 | 1.68 | $8,500 | 37.2 | 4.37 | |
| Maverick McNealy | 26 | -1 | 19 | 10:45 AM | 0.32 | -0.07 | -0.14 | 1.36 | 0.25 | 0.11 | $8,400 | 32.6 | 3.88 | |
| J.T. Poston | 7 | -4 | 32 | 1:05 PM | -0.23 | 2.60 | -1.02 | 1.60 | 2.37 | 1.35 | $8,300 | 37.0 | 4.46 | |
| Victor Perez | 26 | -1 | 17 | 10:25 AM | 0.79 | 0.09 | -0.57 | 1.18 | 0.88 | 0.31 | $8,200 | 36.2 | 4.41 | |
| Sam Ryder | 52 | 1 | 11 | 9:20 AM | 0.28 | -1.87 | -0.29 | 2.33 | -1.59 | -1.88 | $8,000 | 27.5 | 3.44 | |
| Taylor Moore | 7 | -4 | 32 | 1:05 PM | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.88 | 1.90 | 2.10 | $7,800 | 34.4 | 4.41 | |
| Nick Taylor | 40 | E | 17 | 10:25 AM | -0.08 | 0.03 | 0.60 | 0.42 | -0.05 | 0.55 | $7,800 | 34.4 | 4.41 | |
| Alex Smalley | 12 | -3 | 29 | 12:35 PM | -0.16 | 0.26 | 1.39 | 0.98 | 0.10 | 1.49 | $7,600 | 33.6 | 4.42 | |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 40 | E | 12 | 9:30 AM | 0.69 | -0.02 | -0.68 | 0.96 | 0.67 | -0.01 | $7,600 | 32.3 | 4.25 | |
| Kramer Hickok | 2 | -6 | 36 | 1:45 PM | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 0.87 | 1.82 | $7,500 | 25.4 | 3.39 | |
| Will Gordon | 52 | 1 | 2 | 7:50 AM | 0.61 | 1.23 | -1.59 | 0.21 | 1.84 | 0.25 | $7,400 | 34.9 | 4.72 | |
| Ben Martin | 20 | -2 | 27 | 12:10 PM | 0.66 | 1.79 | -0.51 | 0.02 | 2.45 | 1.94 | $7,400 | 32.5 | 4.39 | |
| Joel Dahmen | 40 | E | 12 | 9:30 AM | 0.50 | 0.09 | 0.49 | -0.12 | 0.59 | 1.08 | $7,400 | 30.6 | 4.13 | |
| Adam Schenk | 1 | -7 | 36 | 1:45 PM | 0.74 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 2.45 | 1.36 | 2.02 | $7,400 | 29.2 | 3.94 | |
| Dylan Wu | 20 | -2 | 26 | 12:00 PM | 0.52 | 0.01 | 1.03 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 1.56 | $7,400 | 24.9 | 3.36 | |
| Seonghyeon Kim | 26 | -1 | 24 | 11:40 AM | -0.18 | 1.15 | 1.43 | -0.92 | 0.97 | 2.40 | $7,300 | 31.5 | 4.32 | |
| David Lingmerth | 20 | -2 | 25 | 11:50 AM | 0.14 | 1.61 | 0.71 | -0.50 | 1.75 | 2.46 | $7,300 | 26.0 | 3.57 | |
| Lucas Glover | 12 | -3 | 28 | 12:20 PM | -0.04 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 1.67 | 0.52 | 0.80 | $7,300 | 23.1 | 3.17 | |
| Garrick Higgo | 52 | 1 | 5 | 8:20 AM | 0.04 | 1.11 | 0.21 | -0.89 | 1.15 | 1.36 | $7,200 | 28.6 | 3.97 | |
| Patrick Rodgers | 52 | 1 | 6 | 8:30 AM | 0.46 | -1.19 | 1.35 | -0.16 | -0.73 | 0.62 | $7,200 | 27.3 | 3.79 | |
| Joseph Bramlett | 52 | 1 | 9 | 9:00 AM | 0.30 | -0.02 | 0.19 | -0.01 | 0.28 | 0.47 | $7,200 | 27.1 | 3.76 | |
| David Lipsky | 40 | E | 16 | 10:15 AM | -0.14 | 0.04 | 0.45 | 0.62 | -0.10 | 0.35 | $7,200 | 25.2 | 3.50 | |
| Adam Long | 12 | -3 | 31 | 12:55 PM | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 1.04 | 0.79 | 1.43 | $7,200 | 24.8 | 3.45 | |
| Ludvig Aberg | 52 | 1 | 6 | 8:30 AM | 0.13 | 0.54 | 0.52 | -0.72 | 0.67 | 1.19 | $7,200 | 19.4 | 2.69 | |
| Lee Hodges | 40 | E | 15 | 10:05 AM | 0.03 | 0.91 | 0.86 | -0.83 | 0.94 | 1.80 | $7,100 | 25.4 | 3.58 | |
| Ryan Gerard | 52 | 1 | 1 | 7:40 AM | 0.02 | 0.97 | -0.28 | -0.25 | 0.99 | 0.71 | $7,100 | 21.0 | 2.96 | |
| Michael Kim | 26 | -1 | 22 | 11:20 AM | 0.08 | 0.38 | -0.15 | 1.16 | 0.46 | 0.31 | $7,000 | 26.5 | 3.79 | |
| Matthys Daffue | 52 | 1 | 1 | 7:40 AM | 0.61 | -0.19 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 0.45 | $7,000 | 24.1 | 3.44 | |
| Kevin Streelman | 52 | 1 | 10 | 9:10 AM | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.47 | -1.18 | 1.18 | 1.65 | $7,000 | 22.8 | 3.25 | |
| Matt Wallace | 7 | -4 | 33 | 1:15 PM | -0.01 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 0.56 | 1.99 | 2.39 | $6,900 | 27.3 | 3.96 | |
| Greyson Sigg | 26 | -1 | 23 | 11:30 AM | 1.02 | 0.73 | -0.98 | 0.70 | 1.75 | 0.77 | $6,900 | 25.3 | 3.66 | |
| Webb Simpson | 12 | -3 | 27 | 12:10 PM | -0.23 | 1.91 | 0.55 | 0.24 | 1.68 | 2.23 | $6,900 | 20.6 | 2.99 | |
| Michael Thompson | 20 | -2 | 25 | 11:50 AM | 0.31 | 0.60 | -0.22 | 1.28 | 0.91 | 0.69 | $6,800 | 21.8 | 3.20 | |
| Patton Kizzire | 26 | -1 | 20 | 10:55 AM | 1.34 | -0.90 | -0.61 | 1.64 | 0.44 | -0.17 | $6,800 | 18.7 | 2.74 | |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 52 | 1 | 4 | 8:10 AM | 0.41 | 2.15 | -0.27 | -1.82 | 2.56 | 2.29 | $6,700 | 23.6 | 3.53 | |
| Ryan Armour | 52 | 1 | 7 | 8:40 AM | 0.52 | -0.68 | 0.12 | 0.52 | -0.16 | -0.04 | $6,700 | 17.1 | 2.55 | |
| Doug Ghim | 12 | -3 | 30 | 12:45 PM | 0.60 | -0.20 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 0.40 | 1.44 | $6,700 | 14.3 | 2.13 | |
| Chad Ramey | 26 | -1 | 22 | 11:20 AM | -0.21 | -0.73 | 0.61 | 1.79 | -0.94 | -0.33 | $6,700 | 12.9 | 1.93 | |
| James Hahn | 52 | 1 | 8 | 8:50 AM | 0.10 | 0.43 | 0.43 | -0.49 | 0.53 | 0.96 | $6,600 | 21.6 | 3.28 | |
| Harrison Endycott | 52 | 1 | 7 | 8:40 AM | 0.19 | -0.65 | -0.26 | 1.17 | -0.46 | -0.72 | $6,600 | 16.2 | 2.46 | |
| Andrew Novak | 40 | E | 11 | 9:20 AM | 1.32 | -1.11 | -0.39 | 1.14 | 0.21 | -0.18 | $6,600 | 16.0 | 2.42 | |
| Austin Smotherman | 26 | -1 | 18 | 10:35 AM | -0.08 | -1.11 | 1.06 | 1.60 | -1.19 | -0.13 | $6,600 | 14.4 | 2.18 | |
| Carl Yuan | 40 | E | 15 | 10:05 AM | 0.98 | -0.48 | -0.18 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.32 | $6,500 | 24.7 | 3.81 | |
| Henrik Norlander | 52 | 1 | 3 | 8:00 AM | 0.29 | -0.63 | 0.12 | 0.68 | -0.34 | -0.22 | $6,500 | 15.3 | 2.36 | |
| Nick Gabrelcik | 40 | E | 14 | 9:55 AM | 1.50 | 2.21 | -0.87 | -1.86 | 3.71 | 2.84 | $6,500 | 12.6 | 1.94 | |
| Sean O’Hair | 52 | 1 | 8 | 8:50 AM | -2.76 | 2.08 | 0.44 | 0.70 | -0.68 | -0.24 | $6,500 | 0.0 | 0.00 | |
| Zecheng Dou | 20 | -2 | 26 | 12:00 PM | 0.41 | 0.88 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 1.29 | 1.60 | $6,400 | 18.5 | 2.90 | |
| Doc Redman | 52 | 1 | 2 | 7:50 AM | 0.14 | -0.43 | -0.26 | 1.02 | -0.29 | -0.55 | $6,400 | 13.0 | 2.02 | |
| Jason Dufner | 52 | 1 | 5 | 8:20 AM | -0.28 | 1.54 | -0.90 | 0.11 | 1.26 | 0.36 | $6,400 | 12.9 | 2.01 | |
| Hank Lebioda | 52 | 1 | 3 | 8:00 AM | 0.24 | 0.10 | -0.13 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 0.21 | $6,300 | 16.2 | 2.57 | |
| Tyson Alexander | 52 | 1 | 10 | 9:10 AM | 0.55 | 0.08 | 0.92 | -1.07 | 0.63 | 1.55 | $6,300 | 14.7 | 2.34 | |
| Richy Werenski | 40 | E | 13 | 9:45 AM | -1.58 | 0.76 | -0.26 | 2.04 | -0.82 | -1.08 | $6,300 | 12.7 | 2.02 | |
| Zac Blair | 26 | -1 | 23 | 11:30 AM | 0.59 | -0.37 | -0.63 | 1.87 | 0.22 | -0.41 | $6,200 | 16.4 | 2.65 | |
| Trevor Cone | 40 | E | 14 | 9:55 AM | 0.28 | -0.57 | 0.87 | 0.38 | -0.29 | 0.58 | $6,200 | 15.9 | 2.56 | |
| Ryan Brehm | 26 | -1 | 21 | 11:10 AM | 0.82 | -0.07 | 0.54 | 0.19 | 0.75 | 1.29 | $6,200 | 12.8 | 2.07 | |
| Trevor Werbylo | 20 | -2 | 24 | 11:40 AM | -0.16 | 2.19 | 0.38 | -0.44 | 2.03 | 2.41 | $6,100 | 16.6 | 2.73 | |
| Cody Gribble | 3 | -5 | 35 | 1:35 PM | 0.81 | 1.01 | -1.33 | 2.97 | 1.82 | 0.49 | $6,100 | 13.1 | 2.14 | |
| Andrew Landry | 52 | 1 | 9 | 9:00 AM | 0.74 | 0.40 | 0.63 | -1.30 | 1.14 | 1.77 | $6,100 | 12.7 | 2.08 | |
| Cameron Percy | 52 | 1 | 4 | 8:10 AM | 0.20 | 0.40 | -0.63 | 0.48 | 0.60 | -0.03 | $6,100 | 12.6 | 2.06 | |
| Rory Sabbatini | 12 | -3 | 29 | 12:35 PM | -0.39 | 0.18 | 1.22 | 1.45 | -0.21 | 1.01 | $6,000 | 12.8 | 2.13 |
Image Credit: Getty Images
Showdown Picks and Projections – Round 3
Weather Forecasts
Round 3 Preview
We officially have a cut on a Friday, which means we have tee times available for round three. As predicted, my main slate lineups absolutely imploded on Friday. The good news is that we have a few outright bets in the mix and that we can always hit up the showdown lobby. I typically like to target chasers on Saturday, but the forecast sets up well for golfers that are already near the top of the leaderboard. We have a lot of wind until about 2:00 PM local time, then some potential rain, and then the wind really dies off. If the forecast holds, the golfers that go out late will have better conditions and potentially a softer golf course.
Top Targets
Tournament Targets
Salary Savers
Salaries, Odds, In-Tournament Statistics, and Projections
LineupHQ w/ Projections
| Golfer | Pos | Score | Tee Group | Tee Time | OTT | APP | ATG | SGP | BS | T2G | DK Salary | Proj | Pt / $ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | 12 | -3 | 28 | 12:20 PM | 1.42 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.21 | 1.87 | 2.27 | $10,700 | 47.9 | 4.47 | |
| Jordan Spieth | 3 | -5 | 34 | 1:25 PM | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.74 | 1.45 | 1.27 | 2.01 | $10,500 | 45.0 | 4.29 | |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3 | -5 | 35 | 1:35 PM | 0.12 | 1.52 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 1.64 | 2.45 | $10,300 | 43.3 | 4.20 |