PGA DFS Targets: Arnold Palmer Invitational
I’ve been MIA the past several weeks as my wife and I have been in Europe on vacation. It was a great time, but I’m ready to get back at it! As there haven’t been any picks lately, there will obviously not be a review of last week’s lineup. Let’s get on to the picks!
What to do with Matt Every?
It’s rare for an event to have a two-time defending champion. It’s even more rare when that someone is an otherwise miserable golfer. Matt Every will put everyone’s preference to the test of whether they value recent form or course history. I am generally on the “recent form” side of the argument. Both are obviously preferred, but if I only get to pick one, give me the golfer who is playing better right NOW. Sure it’s great that someone played well at a course at least one year ago, but that’s no guarantee they’ll continue to do so. If you haven’t guessed by now, Every is a fade for me, especially in tournaments. If you want to have him as a blocker in cash games, I guess I couldn’t argue, but I don’t think the high ownership percentage is worth the play in GPPs.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
Henrik Stenson ($11,100)
There are five legitimate studs in play this weekend, and you’d be hard pressed to argue against playing any of the five of them. Rory and Rory and can win on any given weekend. Adam Scott has back-to-back wins and a T2 before that. Jason Day can be the most dominant golfer in the world when he’s on. That being said, Henrik Stenson is my preferred play this weekend. He combines solid recent form with an impressive course history (finishes of 2nd, 5th, 8th, and 15th in last four years). His tee-to-green play (9th this year) is exceptional and this course really sets up well for him. I’m curious to see ownership percentages for the Top 5, but I would imagine Stenson will still be less owned than the red-hot Adam Scott.
Justin Rose ($10,500)
I never play Justin Rose in DFS and I almost never write about him. I don’t really have an explanation as to why, but I just never seem to target him. This is the week I break the streak, and Rose is coming into this event in great form. He has three consecutive Top 17 finishes, and he has been in the Top 17 in five of his six events this year. He hasn’t been able to capture any victories thus far, but if he continues his stellar play, it might only be a matter of time. Like Stenson, Rose excels from tee-to-green (10th in 2016), and he also ranks 7th in scoring average. Many in the industry have identified “approaches from 200-225 yards” as a key statistic for this week, where Rose ranks 4th on Tour. Rose might not have the course history of Stenson, but his is fairly impressive as well. He has three Top 10s and a runner-up in 2013.
Kevin Kisner ($8,900)
Other than a strange two tournament stretch where he missed the cut (Phoenix Open) and placed 70th (Honda Classic), Kisner has had a phenomenal year. I feel like I write him up every week, but he keeps giving me reasons to do so and his price never seems too high! He has four Top 10s in nine events, and six Top 25s. Other than being relatively short off the tee, he doesn’t have any key weaknesses. He ranks in the Top 10 in Driving Accuracy, Birdie Average, Sand Save %, and Ball Striking. He ranks 9th in Par 5 Scoring average, which will be important this week, and is somewhat surprising given his limited length. Kisner doesn’t have much course history, but as I mentioned before, I’ll take current form any day of the week.
Zach Johnson ($8,300)
I was a little bummed to see that everyone around the industry also seems to be on Zach Johnson. There are times when I seem to be the only one on him, but unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case this week. Johnson’s course history is up there with Stenson and Rose’s in impressiveness (I promise, it’s not the only thing I care about, read the intro!), as he has multiple Top 10s including a T9 last year. Although the course is long, it isn’t a typical bombers paradise, which will help a shorter player like ZJ. At just $8,300, Johnson also appears to be one of the better values of the week, offering some nice upside at a cheap price.
Charles Howell III ($8,000)
RG’s own Notorious is probably the founder of the Charles Howell III fanclub (or as he calls him “Chucky Three Sticks”), but I’d like to put my name in the ring for VP of Operations or some other fancy title. Howell III has been tremendous this year, making 11/12 cuts to go along with nine Top 25s and three Top 10s. He hasn’t been phenomenal in any particular statistical category, but he has been solid in every area. His scoring average and all-around ranking are two of his highest ranked stats, which speaks more to his all-around game than specific strengths or weaknesses in it. People aren’t talking quite as much about Howell’s course history here, but four Top 25s in ten appearances in nothing to scoff at.
Ryan Palmer ($7,700)
There are several players around this price point I would feel comfortable putting in my lineup, but Palmer takes the cake for me. McGirt and Brendan Steele seem to be consensus picks around the industry, so you could possibly prefer them in cash games, but I expect Palmer’s ownership to be quite low, making him a solid tournament play. Palmer hasn’t been great lately, but he hasn’t been that bad either. After starting the season with a missed cut, he has made seven straight, finishing no worse than 42nd. Granted, there haven’t been many high-end finishes in there, but his consistency in finding the Top 25 (four times) is impressive. Palmer is a great tee-to-green player and this course should suit him well.
Scott Brown ($7,400)
Just call Scott Brown “Mr. Florida” because he seems to do well in tournaments there. He has recent finishes of 7th at the Valspar and 10th at the Honda Classic, both in the Sunshine State. He is arguably playing the best golf of his career right now, although it is a small sample size. Much of his success has been related to his putting prowess, as he has putted extremely well lately. If he can continue to keep it up with the flat stick, he might have another Top 10 in his future. He has a 13th place finish here in 2013, so there is also a little course history to fall back on.
Will Wilcox ($6,600)
I now have a weekly tradition when writing up picks. I go out to Twitter and search for Will Wilcox and see how he thinks he’s playing. He’s been brutally honest when he hasn’t had it, but apparently he thinks he’s close to finding the form that made him a DFS darling last year. He tweeted this out yesterday “Alls I gotta say to my DFS homeys is… Put me in ur line up *thumbs up*”. What more do you really need to know? Get him in there!