PGA DFS Targets: AT&T Pebble Beach
One of the most exciting events on Tour fully lived up to its name last week, as it produced one of the best finishes of the young season.
Hideki Matsuyama played great to earn the victory, although Rickie Fowler will feel as though he gave it away. Fowler dumped it into the water on 17 while holding a two-shot lead, which was enough for Matsuyama to force a playoff. Fowler eventually hit it in the water again on 17 and Matsuyama two-putted for an easy finish.
The course played more difficult than most expected, which made for a more entertaining tournament, in my opinion. The cut line was actually at even par, while most expected coming in for it to be a few shots below par. Overall, it was a phenomenal weekend of golf.
Waste Management Review
To give you a little insight into how I end up with my selections, I write down about 10-12 names on a sheet of paper after finishing my research. Last week, my names were (in salary order): Watson, Fowler, Matsuyama, Holmes, Na, Palmer, Howell III, Kim, Bradley, and Swafford. Eventually, I eliminated Fowler (2nd), Matsuyama (1st), Holmes (6th), and Bradley (24th) to get to my six. Ugh. That tells me that my research was sound, but ended up on the wrong end of some 50/50s. In the end, I was still one stroke from getting all six through the cut. And by one stroke, I mean any player to have had one stroke, not just Hudson Swafford as he ended up at 71st and one more stroke from a player at Even par would have moved the cut line.
Anyways, Watson (14), Na (24), Palmer (24), and Howell III all cracked the Top 25, while Si Woo Kim had a meltdown on Sunday to drop all the way to 67th. It was a promising week that otherwise turned out to be so-so. A 6/6 would have been nice, but that’ll have to wait for another week.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Picks
Jordan Spieth
I had already started my write-up for Brandt Snedeker before the prices had been released. I was ready to plug him in due to his incredible course history and current form. Then I saw that Spieth was only $500 more than Day, $900 more than DJ, and $1,100 more than Snedeker. Spieth has had a “ho-hum” 1st, 4th, and 7th to start the year. Spieth might not have quite the course history of some, but he hasn’t been a slouch here either. He last two years here, he finished 7th and 4th with a “disappointing” 22nd in his only other appearance in 2013.
Here are some of the categories in which Spieth currently ranks first to start the year: Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Total, Birdie Average, Scoring Average, and Sand Save Percentage. There are others, but I think you get the idea. Day, Johnson, Fowler, and others might be exciting players, but there’s no question who stands in a class by himself. Strangely enough, I think Spieth will be under-owned this week as most will flock to the likes of DJ and Snedeker. The best player in the world at fairly low ownership? Sign me up.
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Dustin Johnson
One of the most painful sporting experiences I’ve ever watched was Dustin Johnson’s implosion at the 2010 U.S. Open. After opening with 71, 70, and 66, Johnson had an utter meltdown in route to an 82, dropping him back to 8th place. The thing is, if Johnson hadn’t been dominant up until that point, no one would remember the 82. He would have been just another player having a tough time against a challenging course. But Johnson has shown the ability to play this course with the best of them. His tremendous length (1st in Driving Distance in 2015) and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (9th) have led to plenty of low scores (5th in Birdie Average). These are some of the key statistics for the week, and Johnson ranks highly on just about all of them. Oh yea, Johnson and Spieth are paired together on Thursday, so you won’t want to miss this dynamic pairing.
As a bonus, DJ will also be playing with his father-in-law, Wayne Gretzky. Having some comfort and familiarity with the pro-am partner might not be a requirement, but it can’t hurt either.
Kevin Na
Last week, I went with Na over J.B. Holmes after going back and forth between the two. This week, Na got a significant price decrease comparative to the field, despite a course that suits his strengths much better. I kept scrolling on DraftKings expecting to see him, but he’s only the 12th most expensive golfer. On the year, he already has four Top 3 finishes in just seven events. He also has some nice course history here. He finished fourth in 2014 and fifth in 2012. He doesn’t have the length of some of the other players, but Na makes up for it by picking up strokes elsewhere, specifically in scrambling and his putter. Na ranked 1st in Sand Save Percentage last year and 19th in Scrambling. I think people might be off him due to an average week last week, which should keep his ownership rates down.
Matt Jones
After Na, there isn’t anyone I’m in love with in the entire $8K range. Due to the way this tournament is set up (three rounds before the cut), I think it tailors itself to a “stars and scrubs” approach more than a balanced lineup. I’m not saying a balanced lineup won’t work, it just won’t be the approach that I take. Starting in the sub-$8K range, there are a bevy of players I really like, but Jones is my favorite.
Jones is longer than most people know (22nd in Driving Distance in 2016), and has also shown the ability to make birdies in bunches (14th in Birdie Average in 2015). His performances to start this season have been consistent, but underwhelming. While he’s made five consecutive cuts, he doesn’t have a finish higher than 31st. The primary reason? His putting has been atrocious. He ranks 171st in Strokes Gained: Putting in 2016. I’m not sure how many players even qualify, but I would imagine it’s not many more than 171. He proved last year that he can putt well when he’s on (20th in Strokes Gained: Putting), so he’s only a few made putts away from a Top 25 finish and the potential for more.
James Hahn
For the money, James Hahn might be my favorite play of the weekend. The strange thing about Hahn is that his individual numbers are quite pedestrian, giving no indication that he’s had a solid start to the year. A look at Hahn’s game logs tell you most everything you need to know about him as a player. He has the ability to go low on any given round (five rounds at 67 or below in the last three tournaments), but he can also explode for a tournament-crushing round too (three rounds of 76+ in his last four tournaments).
Players like Hahn are just the type we want to target in an event like this because we’re looking for some upside. Even if he were to play three rounds and miss the cut, he’s likely given you some decent scoring along the way. I don’t expect many to be on Hahn, but think he could be a difference-maker in tournament lineups.