PGA DFS Targets: BMW Championship
Rather than repeat information that others have already given, I figured I’d point you in the right direction to some of our other excellent writers for tournament/course information and their expert picks. Here are some great articles to check out:
Course Analysis by hokie2009 (Incentives Only)
Daily Fantasy Foursome by STLCardinals84
Searching for a Specialist by futureoffantasy
Key Stats
Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring
Greens in Regulation
Driving Accuracy
Recent Form
Note: Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting will always be important and considered week in and week out.
Henrik Stenson
I made the following comment to a friend about a month ago. “Henrik Stenson is one of those guys that DFSers don’t seem to like or appreciate, but I think he’s a Top 5 player at his best.” Fortunately for me, Stenson has played some phenomenal golf since then. He has consecutive runner-up finishes and four straight in the Top 25. My favorite thing about Stenson has always been (and will always be) that he is a phenomenal ball striker. He is first on Tour this season, was first the two seasons before that, and will likely be first against next season (is there a prop bet for that I can place?). Why is he first in ball striking? He’s first in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and Total Driving. He’s also second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and third in Par 4 Scoring. His putting can be mildly inconsistent at times, but still comes in at 21st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting. Stenson does it all and is my favorite player to win this week, regardless of price.
Jim Furyk
Jim “I’m super boring, but grind out results” Furyk seems to be a polarizing player in the DFS community. Some love the consistency he provides. Others are annoying at the lack of flashy scores and consistent pars. This week, more people seem to be for Furyk than against him. Maybe it’s because he’s been playing some of the best golf on Tour over the past month? Furyk hasn’t finished outside the Top 30 in his last six events and has three Top 5s during that stretch. Furyk is known as an accurate driver of the ball, and this year has been no different. He ranks 17th in Driving Accuracy and 16th in Greens in Regulation. He’s 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, which was even higher than I expected. Furyk comes in at #9 in Par 4 Scoring, which will be essential for this event. Furyk might not get your blood flowing like some of the similarly priced, flashier players (Fowler, Watson, Dustin Johnson, etc.), but he combines a nice a blend of stability with upside for a reasonable price.
Zach Johnson
Zach Johnson tends to be highly owned by the “public” and low-owned by avid DFSers that use sites like these. Why is that? It’s likely because Johnson isn’t flashy and doesn’t always show up as a great play when using some of our favorite stats. You know what they say: “Chicks dig the long ball”, but Zach doesn’t hit the long ball, so people don’t dig him. I’m digging him this week as this seems like a course for him to shine on. There is a pricing gap compared to how Vegas projects him to finish. Johnson is the 10th most expensive player, but is the 6th most likely player to win the tournament, according to Vegas odds. Johnson’s form has been sporadic, but his upside is apparent. It won’t be shocking to anyone that Johnson is 6th in Driving Accuracy, but he also fairs well in Par 4 Scoring average (9th). His other measurable stats don’t pop off the page, but Johnson has always seemed to outplay his measurables. He makes for a solid play this week.
Brandt Snedeker
Are you noticing a trend here? I seem to be targeting the “boring” players, but Snedeker appears to be setup for a nice run this weekend. I really like Kevin Kisner at this spot, but I don’t think he has the chops to go out a win this tournament. Snedeker isn’t a safe play due to his inconsistencies (two missed cuts in last six events), but he has the mental acuity and “cojones” to compete for a win. The best part about rostering Snedeker is his ability to catch fire with the flat stick. No one can roll it better than Brandt when he’s on. He’s 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting, although I’d probably take him in a putting contest over anyone. Par 4 Scoring is another strength of his, where he currently ranks 22nd. Snedeker leads the Tour in Approaches from 50-75, sticking it an average of 8’10” away. This seems like a random stat to point out, but due to the short course, this could be a frequent distance for players this week. Even when the range is extended to 50-125 yards (15’ average), Brandt still ranks inside the Top 10. Combine this with his 15th ranked putting from inside 15 feet, and you have a recipe for some potential birdies.
Daniel Summerhays
The majority of articles for this site and others has not yet been posted, but I don’t think I’ve seen Summerhays mentioned anywhere. I think it’s largely because his season statistics don’t show very well, especially in some of our identified stats. At this price point, I’m looking for someone with upside, and I believe Summerhays possesses it. He has back-to-back Top 10 finishes in the previous Playoff events, and he has five Top 10s for the year. Sure, he isn’t the most talented golfer out there in a loaded field, but I love his putting ability. Like Snedeker, he can heat up in a hurry and start rolling in birdies. He ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Here’s a fun nugget for you. Summerhays is one of only eight players this season to not miss a putt under three feet, and he has over 100 more putts from this distance than the other seven players. Yes, this is a random stat to point out (seems I’ve done that twice), but it shows his consistency with the putter, which is essential in an event like this. Quite frankly, I’m not in love with Summerhays, but think he makes for a contrarian play with upside.