PGA DFS Targets: CareerBuilder Challenge
I joked with a family member the week before that “whenever I’m on Brandt Snedeker, he tanks. Whenever I’m off him, he dominates.” I was off Snedeker this week, and It looked like my magical powers were going to lead him to victory when he forced a playoff with a birdie on the last hole. He had the momentum and a sizeable experience advantage over Fabian Gomez, so most were expecting “Sneds” to win it. Gomez showed incredible resilience and poise in route to taking the playoff on the second hole.
Hyundai Tournament of Champions Review
Until I actually went to calculate where everyone ended up, I thought I had put up a truly dreadful week of picks. Upon further review, they were just somewhat lousy instead of awful. The real dud was Justin Thomas. I fully expected him to come out an compete for a Top 5 finish, and instead he had just five birdies in two rounds before missing the cut. Rory Sabatini also missed the cut, although he was a true punt play so that wasn’t too shocking.
After that, the news was slightly better as Howell III, Palmer, and Kelly all finished in the Top 15. Tony Finau made some noise early with an opening round 65, but then sputtered down the stretch. Overall, it would have had a completely different feel had Thomas made the cut and been in contention for a Top 10 or Top 25. Instead, we only got 4/6 through with none in the Top 5. We’ll give it a C- and hope to improve next week.
Unique Setup for CareerBuilder
I generally try to leave the course-specific information to some of the other fabulous writers on RotoGrinders, but this week’s venue(s) are different enough that it probably warrants an explanation. There will be the THREE courses in play this week, and the players will rotate through them during the first three rounds. The cut will take place after the third round, and the players will replay one of the courses (TPC Stadium Course). Because of this, it’s extremely difficult to dial in on certain statistical categories or course histories. Plus, two of the three courses are completely new, so there’s nothing to go on there. Because of this, I will generally focus on players who are playing well right now or appear to be reasonably priced.
CareerBuilder Picks
Patrick Reed
If you’ve read any of my articles lately, you’ve known that I’ve been consistent in fading the top dollar guys almost every week. This week, however, I’ll be making an exception. I think Patrick Reed is actually worth the price of admission right now. He’s a sizable favorite to win the event at +800, whereas Matt Kuchar is second at +1700. Reed is playing the best golf of his career, and other than Jordan Spieth, might be playing better than everyone else on Tour. He has seven consecutive Top 10s worldwide. He also won this event (albeit at a different venue) in 2014. Also, because everyone is guaranteed three rounds, I think it makes more sense than most weeks to go with a “Studs and Duds” approach since the punishment for missing the cut won’t be as severe.
Jason Bohn
After Reed, there are a bevy of quality golfers in the $12k to $10k range. I really liked both Bill Haas and Ryan Palmer coming in, but they are slightly more expensive than I would like and their respective price points. That leaves Jason Bohn as my preferred play in this price range. Bohn had a breakout season last year and will be making his first start of 2016. In his four previous events, he has three Top 3s, including two runner-ups. Bohn did almost everything well in 2015, but his Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green stood out the most, as he finished 12th last year. This is a statistic that translates on almost every course, which will be helpful given that the players will be playing three of them.
Francesco Molinari
Between Bohn and Molinari, there’s no one that I’m in love with, although I wouldn’t argue with Dufner, Hoffman, and Matt Jones in that range. Because DraftKings seems to heavily leverage Vegas odds, there aren’t often too many value plays that pop out. This week, Molinari seems to be slightly underpriced compared to his abilities. Molinari made his season debut last week at the Sony Open, and finished with a solid 33rd, which could have been more if not for a disappointed 70 in the final round. One of Molinari’s greatest strengths is his driving accuracy, where he finished first on Tour last year, hitting 77% of fairways. His accuracy doesn’t stop after the tee, as he ranked 6th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) at 71%. His putting can be inconsistent (generally bad more often than good), but the opportunity to get hot with the putter is there on any given week. As he is priced in
a sort of “no man’s land”, I also expect his ownership to be low.
Tony Finau
I mentioned Finau in my tournament summary from last week, so I won’t rehash his performance, but he once again showed flashes of brilliance that were outdone by his wild inconsistencies. I’m not going to change much about my write-up from last week, because I honestly believe it’s still every bit as true. “While Finau is generally targeted on longer courses where the bombers succeed, he isn’t a one trick pony. When he gets rolling, he can also be accurate with his irons and find greens with regularity. He is always liable to struggle with the flat stick, but he merely has to be average with his putter to be successful due to the strokes he gains on the way to the green. He probably can’t be trusted in cash games due to his ability to blow up at any given moment, but he offers great tournament upside for a nice price.”
Smylie Kaufman
Tenth, 1st, 54th, 34th, 33rd, and 15th. Those are the finishes for Smylie Kaufman thus far in the 2015-2016 season. You’ll notice there are no missed cuts in there, as well as three Top 15s. A further look at his round logs shows his consistency. His highest round of the year (24 total) is a 73, while the majority are between 68 and 71. His individual stats don’t necessary pop off the page at you, but Kaufman just grinds out results. Kauman might not have the chops to take down an event with such a loaded field, but another Top 15 finish seems well within reason for a cheap price.
Patton Kizzire
Patton Kizzire is the perfect type of player to target in an event format like this. Kizzire has shown the inability to consistently make cuts (has missed two straight), but has also shown an immense amount of upside too (2nd and 4th place finishes in back to-back weeks in November). In a typical event where the cut takes place after two rounds, I might not be willing to roll the dice on Kizzire, but I feel better about it knowing that he’ll play at least three rounds (barring injury or withdrawal). Kizzire ranks in the Top 30 in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting, so his game should translate well on any and all of the three courses.