PGA DFS Targets: Deutsche Bank Championship
Let’s call it like it is. My picks were atrocious last week. A Top 5 from Zach Johnson kept it from being a complete disaster, but it wasn’t enough to save an otherwise awful week. Spieth, Koepka, and Blixt all missed the cut. Kuchar and Casey made the cut, but finished tied for 39th.
After several good weeks in a row, this was probably coming, but it still stings. I’m giving myself a D for last week. I apologize for the off week. Hopefully I can rebound and we can all make a little money back this week!
The Deutsche Bank Championship
Rather than repeat information about the course, FedEx Cup Playoffs, and other information related to this week’s tournament, I figured I’d just point in in the right direction for some of RG’s finest writers who already have you covered! This will allow me to focus solely on the picks.
Notorious’ Expert Picks (Incentives)
Gibbathy’s Expert Picks (Incentives)
Relevant Stats:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Ball Striking
Par 5 Scoring
Par Breakers
Rory McIlroy ($11,200)
If you want the safe play, go with Day or Spieth here. Day is playing the best golf of anyone in the world, and Spieth has been the best golfer over the course of this year. That being said, I think Rory is an excellent play this week. At his best, he is still potentially the best player in the world, and I think we see his best this weekend. McIlroy has an impressive history here, which could be enough confidence for him to regain his mojo. In his last five appearances at TPC Boston, he has two Top 5s and a victory. He has the length and short iron play to dominate this course. He doesn’t have enough holes to qualify, but his Par 5 Scoring average is a ridiculous 4.44, which would be best on tour. Rory once again doesn’t have enough data to qualify, but his Ball Striking has always been top-notch. Last year, he was 7th in that department and he’d likely be in the Top 10 again if not for injuries.
Henrik Stenson ($10,500)
Ball striking will be essential this week, and no one in the game is better than Stenson. He ranked 1st last year in Ball Striking and currently is leading the Tour again this season. Unsurprisingly, Stenson is also 1st in Greens-in-Regulation and Total Driving (these are the feeds into the Ball Striking calculation), but he also ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also no slouch with the flatstick and is 22nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. His 27th ranking in Par Breakers shows that he can go low with the best of them, which will be necessary to keep up with this talented field on an attackable course. To summarize, there aren’t any huge holes in his game as he’s become one of golf’s most complete players. He doesn’t get the same recognition, but he deserves to be mentioned when discussing the game’s greatest players. Oh yea, he’s also won here before in 2013 by posting a blistering 262 (-22).
Brooks Koepka ($8,700)
Although he’s a young guy, I think fatigue (both mental and physical) finally got the best of Koepka last week. He has been playing almost every week, and hadn’t missed a cut since the Players championship back in early May. The restful weekend should have allowed him to rest up, and I fully expect him to contend again this week. Koepka’s rankings are off-the-charts in almost all categories, and his game appears to fit well with this course. He ranks 5th in Par 5 scoring, coming in at an impressive 4.5 strokes per Par 5. He’s 8th in Par Breakers and first on Tour in total eagles, both of which show that he can pile up the points in a hurry. Perhaps Koepka’s most impressive quality, especially at such a young age, is his putting ability. Despite a poor putting performance last week, he still ranks 11th for the season in Strokes Gained: Putting. Last week was a disaster, but I think Koepka returns with a Top 10 finish.
Robert Streb ($8,000)
This begins our “chalk” segment of the show. Despite the mediocre showing at The Barclays, Streb will be one of the highest owned players this week. Before the 39th place finish last week, Streb had five straight Top 20s and two Top 5s. He has made 11 consecutive cuts, good for the 3rd best streak this season. He has been one of the most consistent players on Tour, and also seems to measure up well with this course. He ranks in the Top 25 in Ball Striking (21st), Strokes Gained: Putting (21st), Par Breakers (22nd), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (25th). The only identified area where he hasn’t excelled is Par 5 Scoring (57th), but his Par 3 (6th) and Par 4 (8th) Scoring seem to make up for that shortcoming. Streb has better Vegas odds than Snedeker, Casey, and Mickelson, but comes at a cheaper price. Fading him in tournaments could have some value, but Streb will be a staple in my cash lineups.
Jason Bohn ($7,300)
I was slow to jump on the Bohn bandwagon, but I think I’ve finally arrived (this sounds way dirtier than it actually is). I have continually expected Bohn to falter, but he keeps on churning out quality performances week after week. Even when competing with the world’s best, he still managing a Top 10 finish last week at The Barclays. He has now finished in the Top 15 in four of his last five tournaments. Bohn isn’t a long bomber, but thrives on his precision. His Driving Accuracy is 3rd on Tour, and he also ranks 22nd in Greens-in-Regulation. His putting game has also been great, as he ranks 27th in Strokes Gained: Putting. His 23% Par Breaks is good for 15th on tour, despite a mediocre Par 5 Scoring Average. Like Streb above, his Par 3 (14th) and Par 4 Scoring (3rd) Averages are superb. Bohn’s most impressive stat is his Proximity to Hole, which ranks 2nd. This shows that he has the ability to stick it close, which should lead to plenty of easy birdie attempts.