PGA DFS Targets: Frys.com Open
I’m on vacation this week, so all the additional fillers and information had to be cut to focus my time on just the selections and write-ups. I actually got to play a little golf myself and even sunk a birdie putt from 25+ feet!
There are plenty of other excellent articles on RotoGrinders outlining the course layout, tournament history, and other helpful background information to help you this week. In short, I’m excited about the upcoming golf season and hopefully we can all win some money together! Feel free to follow me on Twitter and ask me any questions for this week.
Rory McIlroy
Strangely, Rory McIlroy has become the forgotten man in golf. Not too long ago, people were comparing Rory to Tiger and talking about how many majors he could win. Injuries and excellent play from some other talented golfers have moved Rory away from the spotlight, and I think he could be at his most dangerous in this position. McIlroy finished out last season with Top 10 finishes in 5 of 7 tournaments, including three Top 5s and a victory. McIlroy didn’t have enough holes to qualify, but he would have finished first in Par 5 Scoring last year, a stat that could be crucial in this week’s event. It seems that most looking to pay up are gravitating towards Justin Rose or Hideki Matsuyama, which should leave McIlroy underowned. I think Rory is officially back and starts this year with a Top 5 finish.
Brooks Koepka
If you followed along with this article last year, you know about my DFS (and real life) crush on Brooks Koepka. I featured him in several segments, including my personal favorite “Ode to Brooks.” While Koepka lost some momentum down the stretch in the Playoffs, he has shown signs of regaining his form. He finished second at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship a few weeks back, and appears poised to break through the Top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Koepka is a bomber off the tee as evidenced by his Top 10 rankings in Driving Distance (eighth) and Par 5 Scoring (seventh). He also has some experience as he finished eighth here last season. Koepka should regain his momentum from last season and charge towards a Top 10 performance, with the potential for more.
Justin Thomas
There is a dramatic dropoff in price after Koepka, and Thomas is one of the few at his price point that is worth paying for. Thomas is coming off an unexpected, but excellent season last year. In 30 events, he registered seven Top 10s, and fifteen Top 25s while making the cut 23/30 times. He is still searching for his elusive first win, but I think it could come this weekend. He ranked 17th in SG:T2G and 15th in Driving Distance last year. These pale in comparison to his second ranked Par 5 Scoring average. He averaged under a half stroke under par (4.49) per hole for Par 5s last year, which is a crazy statistic. You need to look no further than Thomas’ seventh ranked All-Around Ranking to know that he is the real deal. He trailed on these golfers in that category last season: Jason Day, Will Wilcox, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, and Brooks Koepka. I think this is the year Thomas moves from DFS folklore hero to nationally known superstar.
Will Wilcox
Wilcox has become a DFS favorite due to his great play at affordable prices, and his consistent acknowledgement of DFS players on Twitter Before missing the cut at The Barclays to finish his PGA season, Wilcox had finishes of 21st, 2nd, and 8th, all while being reasonably priced. Wilcox has shown that he isn’t a lock to make the cut each week, but he possesses Top 10 upside, which is rare for someone at his price point. Wilcox’ most impressive attribute is his ability to find greens consistently (fourth in GIR) and his Ball Striking (second), both of which will be essential to be successful this week. I mentioned his second ranked All-Around above, which shows the balance in his game. Like Thomas, I think even the most casual PGA fan will know who Will Wilcox is by the end of this season. Get him in your lineups while his price is this low.
Bryce Molder
At each non-major, there always seems to be a golfer that has had unprecedented success at an event, especially when you compare the relative success to their overall track record. This week’s golfer that fits the mold is Bryce Molder. He has won, finished third, and appears to be quite comfortable playing in this tournament. His stats don’t appear to match up that well with the course, but who are we to argue with results? There’s something to be said for a player having confidence on a particular course and just playing golf. It’s difficult to get a sense of whether Molder will be highly owned this week, but I expect it to be lower than it should be due to his overall mediocrity outside of this venue.
Shawn Stefani
For reasons I cannot explain, I tend to gravitate to Shawn Stefani. I think some of it has to do with the relative reliability that he provides. He made 21/26 (81%) cuts last year, which is impressive for any price point, but especially for someone at this price time. The cut percentages of the other identically players on DK are 48%, 50%, and 57%. I’m not guaranteeing that he’ll make the cut, but he seems likely to do so at a bargain bin price. Stefani isn’t just a cut maker, and he provides a little upside as well. He had three Top 10s last year, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him get another this week. Stefani’s statistics don’t pop off the page, but he also doesn’t do anything poorly as well. He ranks in the Top 50 in most major categories, and Top 25 in Ball Striking, Birdie Average, and Par Breakers. Stefani is my favorite punt option this week.