PGA DFS Targets: Honda Classic
Despite a late-round blitz from Adam Scott and consistent play from Jason Kokrak, Bubba Watson was just too much and captured his ninth career victory.
The top of the leaderboard was loaded with studs, as guys like Bubba, Rory, Scott, and Dustin Johnson all went into Sunday with a shot at the victory. I think it was one of the most entertaining events, thanks in large part to the star power. The course played surprisingly easy, mainly due to some rain earlier in the week that softened the normally slick greens. It was another great event for an already remarkable 2015-2016 season.
Northern Trust Open Review
I’ve been very critical of my pick performances lately because quite frankly, they’ve stunk. I went back and looked at the process and logic behind them, but couldn’t find any issues. The reasoning was sound, they just didn’t work out. This past week, the picks finally worked out. Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama were the premium plays, and both paid off at fourth and 11th. In the medium tier, it was largely positive (especially Kuchar at eighth), but Sergio laid a huge egg. The downfall was triggered by a FOUR-putt from EIGHTEEN feet. Although that might be common for players like you and me, that shouldn’t happen to professionals.
Anyways, the best play turned out to be K.J. Choi, who finished fifth despite a bargain bin salary. Overall, we had four players in the Top 11, which is tough to beat. I’ll give out an A for the Northern Trust Open picks and we’ll try to keep the momentum rolling this week.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @TaylorEzell.
Update on Last Week’s Bet
Last week, I mentioned the following in my write-up: “If Hideki Matsuyama misses the cut, I’ll play an entire hole of golf with a randomly drawn (will draw via periscope) club and only play with it (including the green). I’ll stream the whole thing so you can all laugh at me and hope that it’s not a gap wedge.” I wrote that on Tuesday and then news broke that HM had flu-like symptoms, but was going to try to play. I considered reneging on my deal, but figured I’d let fate play its course. Luckily he played well overall and finished in 11th place. No bets this week (for now), but feel free to suggest some in the comments or on Twitter.
Editor’s Note: The people asked, and so I gave it to them! DraftKings pricing has been added this week. Let me know if there are other improvements you’d like to see going forward.
Patrick Reed ($10,600)
This pick isn’t so much about my love for Reed (I do like him, just not in love with him), but more my general disdain for everyone priced above him this week. Sure, Rory, Rickie, Hideki, Scott, and Phil are all excellent players capable of winning, but if you gave me the field versus that group, I’d take the field. It seems like the rest of the DFS world is in agreeance here as I’ve seen Reed mentioned multiple times, so fading him in tournaments might make some sense. Anyways, here’s why I like Reed more than some other names.
First, he has been in phenomenal form this year. Other than the missed cut blunder at the Farmers Insurance Open and a dud at the CareerBuilder, he has finishes of sixth, second, second, seventh, and tenth. If these performances were turned in by a superstar like Spieth, McIlroy, or Day, we’d be seeing it all over the sporting news world, but Reed flies under the radar. Reed is an excellent scrambler (second) and also seems to avoid big number or mistakes (first in Bogey Avoidance), which will be crucial on a challenging course. Reed finished 7th here last year, so he has a bit of history as well.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got DraftKings PGA incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from Notorious, as well as top plays from 2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year, Gibbathy! Find out more about our incentives offerings here!
Branden Grace ($10,300)
I struggled with this one and went back and forth on whether or not to include him. His price was higher than I wanted it to be, but in the end, it’s probably a fair one. Grace has been remarkable to start the year, although most have no idea because he hasn’t had an event on the US Tour since November at the HSBC Championship. In his last six events (worldwide), he doesn’t have a single finish outside of the top eight. It’s difficult to compare stats from the European Tour to the US one, but Grace’s numbers would compare favorably, especially in scrambling where his 75% scrambling from the sand rate would put him third on Tour. Due to his almost blank game log and lack of name recognition, I don’t expect him to be highly owned, making him a great tournament play.
Kevin Kisner ($9,900)
This is the third straight guy from this price cluster, but because we didn’t pay up for the any of the “elite” players, we can afford to load up at the next tier. Kisner as always been one of “my guys” and is a frequent target for my lineups. Quick poll: Name the Top 2 players in the FedEx Cup rankings this year. Times up. Brandt Snedeker is first, you might have gotten that one. Second? Kevin Kisner. His form this year has been excellent, posting four Top 10 finishes in just seven events.
Like Grace, Kisner has been excellent from the sand this year, converting on 77% of his sand saves, good for second on Tour, albeit in a small sample size. He ranks in the Top 5 in Ball Striking, Total Driving, Sand Save %, and Scoring Average. Oh yea, and first in the All-around ranking. He doesn’t have much course history here, which is a minor concern, but it’s not enough to scare me off of him entirely.
Zach Johnson ($8,800)
I went back and looked at my history and where I had written up Zach Johnson during the last year. I wrote him up at the John Deere Classic (third), Bridgestone Invitations (33rd), The Barclays (fourth), and BMW Championship (13th). I’m not saying I’m the Zach Johnson whisperer, but I’m not not saying it either… “ZJ”’s game would seem to work well here, as power isn’t as essential as precision. Johnson hasn’t quite been able to recapture the form from 2015, but he hasn’t been bad either. Other than a missed cut at the CareerBuilder, he has been solid. He has four Top 25 finishes, including a ninth place at the Sony Open, an event many have drawn parallels to this one. I don’t expect Johnson to compete for a win this weekend, but a Top 10 finish seems well within reach. Due to his discounted price, anything in that range would be a steal.
Shane Lowry ($8,500)
The weather is supposed to be bad this weekend, with consistent winds between 15-20 mph. Lowry is known as one of the better players in poor conditions, likely because he is Irish and comfortable playing in blustery conditions. In reference to the Open Championship a few years back, he said “I think I’m good in bad conditions.” Confidence playing in poor weather is half the battle, and Lowry seems to have it. Confidence with nothing to back it up doesn’t do anyone much good, but Lowry has plenty of ability as well.
Despite being a larger guy, Lowry is more of a controlled player than a bomber, which should suit him this week. He currently ranks in the Top 30 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (29th) and Strokes Gained: Putting (18th), Total Driving (eighth), Ball Striking (30th), and Sand Save % (29th).
Jim Herman ($6,600)
I think there are plenty of viable punt plays this week, but I eventually landed on Jim Herman. It was a battle of two similar names for the final spot, Brian Harman and Jim Herman. Herman has quietly put together an excellent start to the season, making 8 of 10 cuts, including four Top 20s.
Herman is short off the tee, but is an accurate driver of the ball (11th in Total Driving and Ball Striking), and also finds greens consistently (31st in GIR this year, second in 2015). His scrambling abilities leave something to be desired, but if he can find the greens consistently, he won’t need to scramble much. Last year, he finished seventh at this event, including an opening-round 65. He fared well at Pebble Beach a few weeks back, and while they aren’t terribly similar, they are both more difficult courses, showing that Herman can compete at all levels on any course.