PGA DFS Targets: Hyundai Tournament of Champions
If you’ve read this article with any regularity over the past year, you know that I’ve been a huge fan of Brooks Koepka, even writing several sections professing my love to him (see “Ode to Brooks” from last year). That being said, I’ll be staying away from him this week for one reason.
Beware of Brooks (BoB)
Koepka recently made the switch to Nike Golf, which means a change in clubs. While this might not seem like a huge deal (after all, these guys are the best in the world, right?), a change in clubs can easily throw off someone’s game, at least for a few weeks while they adjust. In high school, I always loved it when the game ball was the Wilson Evolution basketball. Was it that different than other balls? Not really, but it was the confidence I had while playing with it that made the difference. Could Koepka come out and win this event with his new clubs? Absolutely. He’s talented enough to do it. However, I’m going to take a “wait and see” approach to determine how he adjusts to his new toys.
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Hyundai Tournament of Champions Picks
Dustin Johnson
The biggest decision people have this week is “To Speith or not to Spieth”, and quite frankly, I think it’s a fairly easy decision. While I do love him as a player this week, I don’t think it’s worth sacrificing the rest of your team to do so. Rostering Spieth leaves you with an average of $7,500 per remaining player (think Danny Lee and below). While it’s possible to put together a roster with these caliber players, I’d rather have multiple bullets that can win the tournament. Dropping to Dustin Johnson allows an extra $400 per golfer, which should drastically improve the caliber of your overall lineup. In addition to being a long hitter (which should come in handy), he also won here in 2013.
Patrick Reed
Reed comes in as one of the world’s hottest golfers, and has six consecutive Top 10 finishes worldwide. In his last outing at the Hero World Challenge, he finished as the runner-up, and he could capture the elusive victory that has evaded him lately. Reed’s putter has been a big reason why he’s placed so highly this year. He ranks third in Overall Putting Average early in the 2016 season. Last year, he finished in the Top 20 in Strokes Gained: Putting, so there is reason to believe this hot form with the flat stick will continue going forward. Outside of the “Big 3” of Speith, Day, and Johnson, Reed is my favorite to win the event, yet is the sixth-most expensive player.
Rickie Fowler
After hitting a brief rough patch last season, Fowler has bounced back and is in excellent form coming into this event. Fowler’s game is one of the most well-rounded on Tour, and he doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses. He drives it well, finds greens with regularity, and makes putts. That’s a recipe for success, which is why Fowler had four Top 3 finishes in just 21 events last year, including two victories. He finished third at the Hero World Challenge, closing in rapidly by shooting a 65-64 pairing during the weekend. Fowler has only been here once, earning a sixth place finish. I like Fowler as an under-owned option with a realistic chance of claiming a victory.
Jimmy Walker
I’m not sure what it is about Jimmy Walker, but most DFS players (including myself) tend to stay away from him. Walker has put together five wins over his last two seasons, and is one of the most underrated players on Tour. He is a deceptively long hitter (21st in Driving Distance last season) and also has the ability to make putts in bunches (second in Strokes Gained: Putting last year). One of his few weaknesses is his inability to find greens consistently (101st in GIR), but that shouldn’t be much of an issue this week. The greens here average over 7,000 sq. feet. To put that in perspective, these are twice the size of those found at somewhere like Pebble Beach (3,500 sq. feet), so golfers should find them with regularity. Once he gets there, his putting ability should help drive him towards the top of the leaderboard.
Bill Haas
By his standards, Bill Haas had a relatively underwhelming season in 2015. He had just 12 Top 25s in 2015, compared to 17 in 2014 and 16 in 2013. He did have a victory this time last year at the Humana Challenge, but largely sputtered after that. He showed signs towards the end of the season and has carried the momentum into this year. He finished fifth at the Hero World Challenge in December, shooting rounds of 67-66-68-68. Haas’ biggest weakness has always been his putting, but if he can get that part of his game rolling, he could challenge for a Top 5 finish.