PGA DFS Targets: OHL Classic
Dustin Johnson appeared to be on his way to potentially another victory when he hit perhaps unluckiest shot of the year He was in contention and about to drop one close for yet another birdie attempt. Instead, the ball hit the flag on the fly and went into the water. This was likely a three-shot swing as he finished with a 7, but we’ll never know what would have happened had he not been unlucky. Feel free to relive the pain by watching it again. Anyways… Russell Knox was flawless, posting a -20 in route to a fairly comfortable victory. Kevin Kisner, Ross Fisher, Danny Willett, Branden Grace, and Dustin Johnson rounded out the Top 5.
WGC-HSBC Review
Other than getting unlucky with DJ, how did my picks from last week fare? Pretty good. We couldn’t quite replicate the “A+” magic from the CIMB Classic (five players in the Top 10! We’ll never do better than that), but it wasn’t bad either. Dustin Johnson and Branden Grace finished in the Top 5, not too bad to have back-to-back weeks with two in the Top 5. There was a steep drop-off from there as Justin Thomas couldn’t ever quite get it rolling, finishing 27th. Scott Piercy (35th) and Daniel Summerhays (44th) finished in the top half, but were underwhelming. Didn’t nail the winner, but two Top 5’s weren’t too bad. We’ll go with a B+ for the WGC-HSBC. Hopefully we can get a new winning streak started this week.
OHL Classic Picks
Some weeks, if time allows it, I’ll try to write up a section here about a particular topic, player, or possibly just some course information. This week wasn’t one of those weeks. Luckily, there are plenty of other excellent articles on RotoGrinders outlining the course layout, tournament history, and other helpful background information to help you this week. Follow me on Twitter @taylorezell and feel free to ask me any questions for this upcoming week. Good luck!
Matt Kuchar
During the first several tournaments of the year, there has been a golfer most weeks that is priced above the rest. Every week until now, I’ve avoided the high-priced studs because I didn’t think they were worth the price, which has largely paid off. This week, I think there is fairly significant talent gap between Kuchar and the rest of the field. Also, there are some much more favorable value plays in my opinion, making it easier to fit Kuchar in. Kuchar is coming off a win at the Fiji Open and was hot even before that. His game appears to fit this course perfectly, as he isn’t a long bomber, but makes his living finding greens in a hurry and knocking in putts. Kuchar is currently listed at 13/1 odds to win this tournament, while Patrick Rodgers is a distance second at 20/1. Kuchar is also even money to finish in the Top 10 (+115), so he should be set for a nice finish this weekend.
Jason Bohn
I should publicly apologize to Jason Bohn for doubting him so long, but luckily I changed my mind toward the end of last season in time to ride Bohn to some nice finishes. Bohn’s consistency last season was remarkable, and he has picked up where he left off, already logging two Top 3 performances in three events this year. Take a look at his scores by round and marvel at his consistency. He’s had just two rounds out of 12 above par this year, and these were both one shot over par. Bohn’s specialty is his accuracy, both off the tee (5th in Driving accuracy this year) and in approaching greens (28th in GIR). This short course should suit him nicely and he should post some low numbers in route to another Top 10.
Will Wilcox
Wilcox is slowly becoming a DFS legend, but not just for his nice performances on the golf course. Wilcox consistently acknowledges DFS players and interacts with fans on Twitter, a nice touch that only adds to his appeal. That being said, even the nicest guy in the world wouldn’t get written up here unless they had the game to back it up. Like others featured here, Wilcox’s game seems to fit nicely with this short course. Wilcox was 4th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) last year, 18th in Driving Accuracy, and 20th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also not too shabby with the flatstick, as he ranked 32nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Assuming he can get the putter rolling this weekend, I fully expect him to challenge for a victory.
Jason Kokrak
I think I’ll be deploying somewhat of a “stars and scrubs” approach this weekend, as I don’t love anyone from the $8k to $9k range. Kokrak’s biggest headline so far this year wasn’t a positive one, as he was disqualified after incorrectly signing his scorecard earlier in the year at the Frys.com Open. He had an average performance at the following event, but then had a nice showing (12th) at Sanderson Farms last week. My favorite part was how he finished, posting a blistering 64 in the final round to vault up the leaderboard. Momentum can be huge and Kokrak could carry it forward into this week’s event. Kokrak doesn’t fit the typical mold as he’s a bit more of a long hitter (11th in Driving Distance), but I’m never going to hold distance against someone.
Hudson Swafford
I really wanted to go with the local, Carlos Ortiz, but ended up having to go with Hudson Swafford at this price point. I don’t have anything to back this up, but Swafford seems underpriced to me this week. Swafford has a missed cut sandwiched in between two Top 25s to start the year. The missed cut at the Shriners was due to a disappointing 2nd Round 73, but has otherwise been solid this year. Swafford has what we look for in a golfer playing a shorter course. He hits greens consistently and makes putts (26th in Strokes Gained: Putting). He seems to be a sure bet to make this cut with the potential for another Top 25, which would be a bonus at this affordable price.
Pat Perez
Perez has gotten off to a brutal start this season, making just one of three cuts and finishing just 63rd in the event he finished. Perez started last year slow as well before getting things rolling, and I expect more of the same this year. Perez is too talented to stay bad for long. The thing most appealing about Perez is his putting chops, as he finished 25th in Strokes Gained: Putting last season. He has been awful this year with the flatstick (192nd!), so if he addresses his putting woes, he could quickly turn things around. At this price, all you are hoping for is a made cut, and I think Perez comes through with at least that this weekend.