PGA DFS Targets: Puerto Rico Open
What a fun finish to the Arnold Palmer Invitational! It doesn’t get much better than several of the world’s best players (Day, Stenson, Rose, Johnson, Matsuyama) battling some up-and-comers in Kevin Chappell, Troy Merritt, Jamie Lovemark, and Kiradech Aphibarnrat.
In the end, Jason Day was too good, thanks in large part to his blistering -13 through the first two rounds. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up last week: “Jason Day can be the most dominant golfer in the world when he’s on.” Yup. He was on and it was too much for the loaded field to handle.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Review
Going into Sunday, I had the potential for a monster week of picks. Stenson, Rose, and Zach Johnson were all in the Top 10, and Stenson/Rose were within a few shots of the leader. Johnson did his part by posting a- 4 and finishing fifth. Stenson and Rose posted average scores and ended up in third and ninth. It’s still nothing to scoff at having three in the Top 10, but not hitting the winner stings a little. Scott Brown outperformed his price (see him below) with a 27th place finish. Charles Howell III and Ryan Palmer both had Sunday stinkers to drop to subpar finishes at 46th and 60th. Kevin Kisner? Screw you. Will Wilcox? So close. He grinded out a gutty finish, but ultimately fell a shot short of making the cut after a miserable 75 on Thursday.
Overall, it was a really solid week. The three in the Top 10 offsets not having anyone else in the Top 25, although Kisner missing the cut hurts. We’ll go with a B overall.
Puerto Rico Open Picks
Scott Brown ($10,900)
I don’t want to toot my own horn and say that I was on Scott Brown before it was cool but… Screw it, I was on Scott Brown last week before it was cool! Unfortunately, he comes in at a hefty $10,900 as opposed to a reasonable $7,400 last week. Brown has been great this season, posting three Top 10s in just 13 starts. He has missed four cuts in those 13 tries, but has made four straight. It’s not his current form that has most buzzing, however, it’s his history at this event. He has won here before, owns the course record, and has several Top 10 finishes to go along with it. I made a big deal last week about not buying into the Matt Every hype because he wasn’t also playing well at the time. Brown has an excellent combination of BOTH this week, and also has the benefit of playing against a much softer field thanks to the WGC match play event.
George Coetzee ($10,000)
George Coetzee is $10,000 on DraftKings and is a viable play, oh what a time to be alive… Most will likely play one of DeLaet/Brown/McGirt while disregarding some of the other $10k+ options. Coetzee will fly under the radar due to his lack of experience or success on the US PGA Tour. Much of this is because he only plays at events like majors or other large championships against the world’s best. This week, the world’s best will be busy with another tournament, so Coetzee will be the cream of the crop. A look at his log on the European Tour shows how well he’s been playing. He hasn’t missed a cut, and has several Top 15 finishes. I don’t love him as an elite talent, but comparatively speaking, he looks pretty good in such a weak field.
Jerry Kelly ($9,300)
Jerry Kelly checks all the boxes this week. He is playing decent golf, has some course history, and fits the attributes of successful golfers at this course. Kelly has made seven of eight cuts this season. Although he hasn’t turned too many of these into high finishes, it’s proming that he’s at least been around until the weekend. He has He is an accurate driver of the ball as evidenced by his sixth ranked Driving Accuracy. He’s also a great sand player (16th) and scrambler (fifth). It’s not the most desirable thing to play someone that looks like your Uncle, but I think “Uncle Jerry” will come through this week.
Jonathan Byrd ($9,000)
Most outside of the DFS community are unaware that Jonathan Byrd even exists, much less is an up-and-coming golfer. Byrd has begun to put his stamp on the Web.com Tour and has two Top 10s and a third place finish already this season. He is coming off his best performance of the year at the Chitimacha Louisiana Open where he finished tied for third thanks to a final round 66. His three appearances at Coco Beach? He’s finished 13th, 12th, and 16th. Any of those would beat his 17th ranked price, although we’re really expecting a Top 10 finish to truly exceed his expected value. I think he does it and continues his great season.
Derek Fathauer ($7,800)
I’ve been really surprised to see little to no mention of Fathauer across the industry. Looks like I’ll be one of the few rolling with him this week. Fathauer is a relatively unknown player, but has played really well this season. He put forth his best weekend since the first event of the season (fourth at OHL Classic) and finished 12th at the loaded Arnold Palmer Open. If not for a triple bogey on 11, he might have had a Top 5 finish in the works. He is a really good putter (23rd on Tour), which I expect to be crucial this week. I don’t think he quite enough game to win an event at this point, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Top 10 this week, which would more than pay for his $7,800 price tag.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,400)
Vegas seems to be one of the more chalky options this week, but that won’t deter me from him. Vegas has quietly put together a solid season thus far. Although he only has 9 Tour starts, he has four Top 25s and two Top 10s. He has definitely struggled with consistency (three missed cuts), but he possesses a great deal of upside, especially for someone at his price. Vegas is a large human being at 6’3 and 230 lbs, and he can really drive the ball (26th in Driving Distance). He’s been accurate in finding greens this year (11th in GIR) and has also been a great ball striker (18th). He doesn’t have a ton of experience here, but has a 24th place finish here in 2010.