PGA DFS Targets: Waste Management Open
Due to some connectivity issues during the writing of this article (weather-related), I wasn’t able to find time to write a review of last week’s tournament and picks. If I have time on Wednesday, I’ll try to provide a quick recap.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter.
Waste Management Open Picks
Bubba Watson
Due to soft pricing at the low-end, I would expect most players to load up with at least one of Watson, Snedeker, Fowler, or Koepka. Despite my love affair with both Snedeker (Nashville guy) and Koepka (he’s just awesome), I think Watson is the play this week. With Watson, it’s extremely important that the course “suits his eye” because he’s a mental player even more than most. If he’s on his game and his creative juices are flowing, there is no one in golf like him. He has back-to-back runner-up finishes here, and seems to thrive off the energy of the crowd.
You don’t need the stats to tell you Watson is a long-bomber, but I’ll do it anyways. He ranks 1st on Tour with a ridiculous 320.9 yards per drive. In addition, he ranks 4th in GIR and 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, albeit in a small sample size (three events). If he continues to keep up these stats, he could be on his way to a 9th career victory.
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Kevin Na
Coming into the week, I really wanted to target J.B. Holmes for the second consecutive week, and was hoping he’d be priced around the upper $9K region. Unfortunately, he’s priced at $10,800, making him a much tougher sell.
For the price, I really like Kevin Na this week. His hot form to start the year was briefly derailed with a few average performances, but he bounced back with a 3rd place finish at the CareerBuilder a few weeks ago. On the year, he already has FOUR Top 3 finishes in just six events. If someone like Jordan Spieth did that, we’d be hearing about it non-stop, but someone like Na flies under the radar. Na has been an excellent ball striker (16th on Tour) and has also excelled from Tee-to-Green (9th). His putting can be suspect at times, but he has played well enough outside of this aspect to offset the mediocre performances with the flat stick. Because of the quality talent at his price range, I also don’t expect him to be highly-owned, making him a nice differential play in tournaments.
Ryan Palmer
I don’t normally like to write up two players at essentially the same price point, but I couldn’t chose between Na and Palmer so I ended up with both. I haven’t reported on this, but I would imagine Ryan Palmer is one of my most frequently rostered golfers for DFS. He has been remarkably consistently lately, posting Top 17 finishes in three consecutive events. During that stretch, he has only two rounds above par.
While Palmer isn’t generally categorized with the likes of Bubba Watson, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, and the other bombers, he’s actually right up there with the longest hitters in golf. Palmer is averaging a massive 315+ yards off the tee this year, good for 5th on Tour. Like Na, his struggles generally come with the putter. For the season, he’s 131st in Strokes Gained: Putting. He’s had successful finishes with putting like that, so just imagine if he starts to roll in a few…
Charles Howell III
Here’s your late night infomercial. “What would you pay for a golfer who’s finished 16, 11, 13, 9, and 10th in their last five events? $11K? $10K? $9K? Nope! This can all be yours for just $8,200!” Okay, that was really bad, but it does illustrate a point. Howell III seems to be underpriced this week given his hot form and overall talent level.
In looking at Howell’s raw numbers, nothing truly jumps off the page at you. His most impressive stat, however, is arguably the most important one. He’s 11th on Tour in Scoring Average this year. Howell III just gets it done in a no-frills fashion. Oh yea, and he’s a cut-making machine too. He hasn’t missed a cut since last July.
Si Woo Kim
I’m not sure what Si Woo Kim has to do to get much of a price bump on DraftKings because apparently playing incredible, consistent golf hasn’t been enough. He has five straight Top 18 finishes, including two in the Top 10. What’s most impressive about his game is that he already doesn’t have any glaring flaws, despite being only 20 years old. He ranks 14th in Total Driving and 27th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Kim is on the verge of becoming a national sensation, and just needs a victory to truly launch him into stardom. While I don’t anticipate it being this week, I think another Top 25 finish is well within reach, which would easily pay off his reasonable price tag.
Hudson Swafford
To fit a few superstars, you’re going to need to roster a few values as well. There are plenty to choose from, but Hudson Swafford is my preferred option. Before Sunday’s round in a near-hurricane, Swafford had posted scored of 70, 71, and 69 on a tough golf course(s). He’s made three straight cuts and has two finishes in the Top 13.
Swafford does two things really well, and both are equally important. First, he can hit the ball a long way and is currently 12th in Driving Distance. He’s also been one of the best putters on Tour. So far in 2016, he’s 13th at .900 Strokes Gained: Putting. He’s too inconsistent to trust for cash, but he makes for a great GPP play at a bargain-bin price.