PGA DFS Targets: WGC-HSBC Champions
The players had little trouble tearing up the course in Kuala Lumpur as six players shot at least -20 for the tournament, and 36 of them shot at least -10. Only six players that finished the tournament finished over par. I’m not sure I’ve seen a tournament with this low of scoring, but the players really seemed to be enjoying themselves. No one had more fun than Justin Thomas. Thomas shot a blistering 61 in the 2nd Round and never looked back, claiming a one shot victory over Adam Scott, Brendan Steele, and Kevin Na.
CIMB Classic Review
After starting the year with some slightly underwhelming picks (they weren’t bad, but you probably weren’t winning GPPs with them either), we finally had a breakout week. The first priority is always to nail the winner, which we did in Justin Thomas, who bulldozed his way to a -26 and a one shot victory. Next, we had Na as the runner up. Two Top 5’s is pretty remarkable, but we didn’t stop there! Finau, Howell III, and Ryan Moore all finished in the Top 10! We had FIVE players in the Top 10 last week. Unfortunately, I didn’t play much volume so I didn’t cash in on it, but hopefully many of you did! For the first time all year (hopefully not the last), we’re giving the picks from last week a A+! Let’s keep it rolling this week.
Some weeks, if time allows it, I’ll try to write up a section here about a particular topic, player, or possibly just some course information. This week wasn’t one of those weeks. Luckily, there are plenty of other excellent articles on RotoGrinders outlining the course layout, tournament history, and other helpful background information to help you this week. Follow me on Twitter at taylorezell and feel free to ask me any questions for this upcoming week. Good luck!
WGC-HSBC Picks
Dustin Johnson
Rory McIlroy is the consensus favorite to win this tournament at +500 odds, but if I were a betting man (I am), I would put my money on Dustin Johnson at +1500. Johnson has won this event before (2013), and is one of the best players on Tour when he is on his game. His tremendous length (1st in Driving Distance in 2015) will be a huge asset on this course, and he should be able to overpower the Par 5s (3rd in Par 5 Scoring). He has also shown the ability to post some low numbers, as evidenced by his 5th ranked Par Breakers and Birdie Average. I think many will be on defending champion Bubba Watson, but for my money, I’ll take Johnson as an excellent alternative.
Justin Thomas
Here’s the excerpt from the writeup last week: “He struggles with the putter at times, but if he can get it going this weekend, he could be in for a Top 5 finish.” As covered above, Thomas did get it going and rode it to an impressive victory last weekend. What’s even more impressive is that the other course didn’t setup nearly as well for him as this one should. Like most of the golfers mentioned here, Thomas is a long bomber off the tee (15th in Driving Distance) and can attack Par 5s with the best of them (2nd last year). Most importantly, Thomas comes in with a great deal of confidence in his game, specifically his putter. Last year, he finished 109th in Total Putting. So far this year, he is 3rd on Tour. If he can continue to drive the ball well and make putts, I see no reason Thomas can’t win his second consecutive tournament.
Branden Grace
Branden Grace isn’t someone I’ve seen touted at all, but I think he could be in for a nice week. Grace has only played here once, finishing 39th in 2013, but a closer look shows that he played really well, posting rounds of 71, 67, and 69 after opening with a nasty 77. Grace didn’t have enough holes to qualify for most of the PGA rankings, but he averages over 300 yards on his driver, and should have no issues sticking with the longer hitters. Grace had a nice showing last week (17th) and also won all of his matches at the Presidents Cup before that. His confidence appears to be at an all-time high and he should ride the momentum to a Top 25 finish.
Scott Piercy
To me, it appears that Scott Piercy is underpriced, even in such a loaded field. Vegas odds don’t tend to agree with me (they are generally smarter than me, so keep that in mind), but I think Piercy is just in too good of form right now for this price. Last week, he followed up an opening round 62 with three straight 69s to finish at -19, good for 7th place. Before that, he had a nice showing at the Shriners, finishing in the Top 25. It’s a small sample size, but so far this season, Piercy ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Unfortunately, his putting has been awful (110th in SG:Putting). If he’s able to start rolling in some putts, he should contend for another solid finish.
Daniel Summerhays
Summerhays seems to be the “chalk” of the week for a value play, but that doesn’t mean we should avoid it just to be different. Being contrarian just to be contrarian isn’t a +EV move, and this seems like one of those times to go with the crowd. Unlike a few of the players mentioned above, Summerhays’ best attribute is his putting ability. He finished 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting, which is a crucial advantage he’ll have almost every week. He has started off the year with three Top 35 finishes and has seven consecutive cuts dating back to last season. It’s hard to get this kind of consistency with any other golfer at such a bargain bin price. Until he shows signs of slowing, I’ll be rolling with Summerhays in my cash and GPP lineups.