PGA DFS Tournament Blog: John Deere Classic Data Insights & Showdown Updates

My goal with this blog is to touch on various key data or course insights that I find valuable, and hopefully will aid in your process to help polish up your player pool, or perhaps even re-evaluate your process for the given week.

As we know with PGA DFS (and golf in general), every course and sometimes every round/day can play differently. This nuance makes PGA DFS both fun and also tricky to come to a simplified approach each week. I will use this blog to help steer through the fluff and focus on the most impactful data for each week. Check back throughout the tournament as I drop some interesting Showdown data nuggets that will help build your teams for the next day.

Saturday, July 2nd, 9:45 PM ET: Round 3 Data & Final Round Showdown Plays

Alright guys, let me first get this out of the way because it’s bothered me all day. Round 2 Showdown plays somehow skipped Friday and went all out today haha. With Hoag, Schwab, Stallings, McCarthy, Davis and Grillo going really low it’s a great lesson in Showdown to stick with your plays from your process, even (especially) if they don’t work out the first day you play them.

For me, you probably have noticed a trend with fading Poston all week, and tomorrow will be no different. In our EAP Data he is only hitting 29.4% of his approaches inside of 18 ft. which is lower than the field average of 36%. He is hitting a lot of greens, but outside of a few really close shots, he is simply making all of his opportunities. He is currently 6/6 putts inside of 6 ft. for birdies on Par 3s and Par 4s and really crushing the Par 5s, playing them -8 for the week.

So step 1 for me is fading Poston, and looking for a comparable price further down the leaderboard. As you have seen this week, there are some really low scores out there and for Final Round showdown I want to emphasize the Birdie-or-better scoring over simply the placement points.

Michael Thompson
Thompson played great today, and he actually lost strokes putting in our Spectrum Data. His irons were great and he made 6 of the 8 birdie chances he had inside of 12 ft. Unfortunately for Thompson, he also played the Par 5s EVEN for the day which left several additional shots out there. Looks for Michael Thompson to continue his play, even making 50% inside of 12 ft. but adding a few birdies on the Par 5s would make for a great round at his price of $7200 on DraftKings.

Hayden Buckley
Just as I mentioned the R2 plays crushed today in R3, Buckley was an underperformer in terms of scoring today but his EAP Data was incredibly strong again. Knocking 65% of his approach shots inside of 18 ft. he made only 1 putt inside of 12 ft. and he actually played the Par 5s over par. Buckley is one of my favorite low-owned plays that continues to hit it well Tee-to-green.

Adam Long
Long played well today shooting -5, but he also left some shots out on the course playing the Par 5s EVEN for the day. He gained strokes on 86% of his drives, and 65% of his approaches today. With 9 approach shots inside of 18 ft. he made 4 but all came from 6 to 12 ft. Look for Adam Long to continue his strong T2G performance as well, and decent placement points are possible for him also.

Other top plays for Round 4:
Patton Kizzire
Martin Laird
Cam Davis
Scott Stallings
Denny McCarthy
Kramer Hickok

Friday, July 1st, 9:40 PM ET: Round 3 Showdown Data & Plays

Late finish today but I got our EAP Showdown Data run and now looking for an edge into Round 3. The AM wave didn’t necessarily crush today but I still want to attack a few early guys. We should go back to Jaeger who is teeing off early at 7:55 AM, and Aaron Baddeley who had a solid round teeing off at 7:45 AM.

Outside of those 2 for GPPs, my favorites are listed below. I used the wProx data for both 12 ft. and 18 ft., Spectrum Ratio Stats for both OTT and APP, and finally wGIR which is my overall favorite stat.

Round 3 Top Plays

Patton Kizzire
Hayden Buckley
Chesson Hadley
Martin Laird
Cam Davis
Mark Hubbard
Austin Cook

Best of luck in Round 3. Definitely expect some more low scores.

Thursday, June 30th, 10:00 PM ET: Round 2 Showdown Data & Plays

Hey everyone! Good week setting up for us this week with Poston firing an incredible -9 today. For Round 2 showdown, we will look to capitalize on some Spectrum Approach data we gathered today, matched with some recent form. Typically the field is strong enough that good plays for week-long will be good plays for R2, but with this field there are so many question marks that I will rely on this data to see if I can capture upside for guys playing the best this week. Let’s take a peek at what stands out for this course in Round 1.

There actually wasn’t as much of an advantage to AM vs. PM as you would expect, in fact there were 5 of the top 8 scores that came from the AM wave. For Round 2, I would still consider AM players over PM but let’s take a closer look at the data. Even though scoring looked great, there weren’t a ton of shots inside of 6 ft. but 12 ft. looks to be a great EAP range for us to focus on. I will also be looking at wGIR, and our going-for-the-green rate on Par 5s. This should set us up to see upside.

Below are my top 10 plays and I have grouped them by tee times:

AM Wave
Matthias Schwab
Bo Hoag
Grayson Murray
Preston Stanley (min price worth a punt)
Michael Gligic

PM Wave
Denny McCarthy
Scott Stallings
Adam Svensson (an RG favorite this week, let’s plug him for a solid Round 2)
Cam Davis
Martin Laird

Wednesday, June 29th, 6:25 PM ET: Field & Course Preview

Hey Everyone, sorry for the late add for this week’s John Deere Classic. I got sucked into tweaking my model for the weak field, and then DraftKings threw us a curveball with some LIV Showdown contests. Nonetheless, I will be looking to attack Showdown this week again, but wanted to drop a few notes for the full week.

The golf course itself, TPC Deere Run, is very average and nothing noteworthy to really mention. We should expect fewer drivers and lots of birdies. This opens up the door for a lot of potential winners and an even greater pool for Top 10 equity. In past year we would have a strong top of the board as guys would be tuning up for the British Open, but since the PGA Tour is now partnering with the DP World Tour, these players will head over to Scotland next week ahead of the British Open.

For this reason, my main edge I am looking for in GPPs is called “Ownership Pockets”, and I want to avoid them. If you look at the pricing, there are not many players priced above $9k on DraftKings, in fact there are only 8. I am very inclined to fade this entire range in some lineups as most DFS players will either A. have extra salary they want to spend somewhere, and/or B. the optimizers will look to add raw projections to buoy lineups.

Neither is necessarily bad, but when it comes to GPPs this is a large “Ownership Pocket” that I don’t feel strongly it will succeed. For example, the trio of Simpson, Hadwin and Theegala will contribute to about 75% ownership in all lineups. While these players are deservedly priced up this high, this event is like most low-scoring events and we should expect it to turn into a putting contest, which means almost anyone is in play. For example, Michael Kim won here, sandwiched between an ongoing cut-streak that seemingly has yet to end.

I don’t see any must-plays, and this will help me avoid the majority of the field. I am playing pretty light this week which sometimes makes it easier to play aggressive, but this is a great opportunity no matter how many lineups you’re building to embrace this week’s volatility and weak field and bink a large-field GPP!

More to come on Thursday with Showdown Data for Round 2. Stay tuned!

My goal with this blog is to touch on various key data or course insights that I find valuable, and hopefully will aid in your process to help polish up your player pool, or perhaps even re-evaluate your process for the given week.

As we know with PGA DFS (and golf in general), every course and sometimes every round/day can play differently. This nuance makes PGA DFS both fun and also tricky to come to a simplified approach each week. I will use this blog to help steer through the fluff and focus on the most impactful data for each week. Check back throughout the tournament as I drop some interesting Showdown data nuggets that will help build your teams for the next day.

Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!

About the Author

  • Drew Mathews (Redkacheek)

  • Drew Mathews, aka Redkacheek, burst onto the PGA DFS scene in 2018 after winning the 2018 Masters Millionaire Maker. Drew’s background playing professional golf gave a unique perspective for the DFS crowd looking to improve their PGA process and overall understanding of Fantasy Golf and key statistics. Drew provides written and video content throughout the week, including the Fantasy Golf Bag Podcast and the Live RotoGrinders show: Drive for Show, DFS for Dough every Tuesday evening. Apart from PGA, Drew plays almost every other DFS sport available, always looking to learn more and find edges in the statistics that many overlook.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).