PGA Drive for Show, DFS for Dough - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Our PGA gurus are here to break down the field for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! Join Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) and Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) for Drive for Show, DFS for Dough, your first look at this week’s PGA DFS slate.
Show Highlights
This podcast episode focuses on providing expert strategies and insights for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Hosted by Justin Van Zuiden and Derek Farnsworth, the episode dives into the importance of player selection, course evaluation, and lineup building.
Watch the video below to hear all about the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PGA DFS slate!
Course Overview
- 80-player signature event, no cut, with each golfer playing one round at Spyglass Hill and one at Pebble Beach before Pebble hosts both weekend rounds.
- Spyglass: par 72, just under 7,100 yards, Poa greens around 5,000 sq. ft., and a fairly standard test.
- Pebble: par 72 under 7,000 yards, extremely short by TOUR standards, with tiny 3,500 sq. ft. greens and slow Poa surfaces.
- Driver usage plummets here: players hit driver on only ~55% of non-par-3 tee shots versus roughly 91% last week, making it more of a “pick your spots” course off the tee.
- Greens are small but relatively easy to hit (about 67% GIR), rough is not overly penal, and scrambling success is high, so short game specialists have excelled historically.
- With wind and rain expected on the weekend at Pebble, up-and-down skills and the ability to make 10-foot par putts become even more important.
- Showdown-wise, there’s no need to obsess over first-two-day course draws; the key edge should come from short game and approach profiles into a windy Pebble weekend.
DFS Strategy
- No‑cut format makes paying all the way up to Scottie Scheffler more palatable, since six cheap golfers still get four rounds to accumulate points.
- In MME, the hosts lean overweight Scheffler and let the optimizer absorb ugly $6,000 builds; in single entry and cash, they prefer more balanced starts in the $9,000 range.
- They’re largely de‑emphasizing off‑the‑tee stats and focusing on approach, around the green, putting, and birdie or better rate due to the tiny greens and scoring dynamics.
- Wind plus small targets push them toward strong scramblers and players who make clutch par saves rather than pure bombers.
- They caution against overreacting to course history alone (e.g., Jason Day, Nick Taylor, Tom Hoge) without current form but still see value in proven Pebble performers at the right price.
- Injury/illness and form uncertainty (Ludvig Aberg, J.J. Spaun, Ryan Fox) make them wait‑and‑see or treat these names as thin GPP darts, especially in a no‑cut field.
- Practical takeaway: in SE/cash, start in the $8,000-$9,000 tiers with multiple high-floor tee‑to‑green plus short-game profiles; in GPPs, pair Scheffler with uncomfortable but viable $6,000–low $7,000 upside plays.
Player Highlights
$10,000+
- Scottie Scheffler — target — best overall play, elite long-term form, just posted 65–67–64 to finish T3 after a brutal start; no‑cut format softens roster construction pain at $14,000 — best for MME GPPs and still viable as a SE starting point if you can live with $6,000 punts.
- Rory McIlroy — cautious — defending champ but limited recent reps and less suited to a non‑driver‑heavy, wind-exposed setup; prefers Scheffler if spending up — mostly GPP sprinkle, underweight vs field.
- Tommy Fleetwood — target/sprinkle — strong European form, 2-for-2 at Pebble, excellent on approach and around the green, plus strong putter; checks all Pebble boxes at $10,200 — good SE and cash starting option when not using Scheffler.
$9,000
- Russell Henley — target — second in Noto’s model, hits fairways, elite irons, very good around the green and with the putter; T5 here last year and 10 straight top 20s; underpriced at $9,200 — priority in SE and cash, core GPP.
- Viktor Hovland — mixed/cautious — trending up with several recent top 10s and past success including a U.S. Am win at Pebble, but short game still a concern on tiny greens in wind at $9,900 — GPP only, JZ leaning underweight while Noto is more positive.
- Si Woo Kim — strong target — tee‑to‑green monster, finishes of 3rd/2nd/6th in last three starts, two straight top-15s here, and massive T2G gain last week; priced reasonably in $9K range with win equity — core play across formats, popular starting point.
- Hideki Matsuyama — cautious — in good overall form and nearly won last week, but current driver issues worry them on a positional course — GPP only, not a core.
$8,000
- Matt Fitzpatrick — target — T9 last week with a few loose swings, has made 21 straight cuts and won recently on DP World Tour; viewed as a breakout candidate with all-around game that fits Pebble — strong SE and cash option, core GPP.
- Michael Thorbjornsen — sprinkle — enormous driver-fueled upside and just finished T3 after leading late, but gained a huge chunk of strokes off the tee; irons and short game improving and he has made a Pebble cut as a Stanford amateur — high-upside large-field GPP play, some uncertainty.
- Denny McCarthy — punt target — elite short game and putter, still making cuts despite limited spike weeks; fits “scramble and putt” Pebble profile at $6,000 range — GPP value and viable cash safety valve when jamming Scheffler.
- Daniel Berger — target/sprinkle — led Phoenix in approach Sunday and gained 4.7 strokes on approach that day, finishing T16; price around $8,000 feels fair for resurging iron play — GPP priority with some SE appeal.
- Ben Griffin — target — three straight 30s this year that now feel “disappointing,” with strengths in approach, around the green, and putting; course history weak, but hosts believe he’s a different, better player now at this price — strong GPP and viable SE piece.
- Jason Day — contrarian target — elite Pebble history and recent runner‑up, but underlying stats never look great; projects as one of the lowest‑owned names in this range — leverage GPP play only.
- Patrick Cantlay — cautious — priced at $8,900 with older Pebble top 5s but very quiet, middling recent form; feels capped in upside relative to peers — light GPP exposure at most.
- Bobby MacIntyre — sprinkle — quietly one of the top Strokes‑Gained players in the field over the last four months; price in low $8,000s makes him an appealing mid-tier GPP option.
$7,000 / value
- Pierceson Coody — target — sustained hot form with four straight top 20s and a surprising $7,600 tag despite strong recent results; hosts feel form easily outweighs Pebble inexperience — strong GPP and usable in SE.
- Shane Lowry — sprinkle — runner‑up here last year and playing better on the DP World Tour; attractive for large-field GPPs as a mid‑owned, all-around fit.
- Ryan Gerard — sprinkle — top‑20 machine lately, reliably solid if unspectacular; useful salary mid‑tier stabilizer around $7,500 — mainly cash/SE filler and secondary GPP option.
- J.J. Spaun — contrarian dart — model favorite, coming off a missed cut at Farmers and a WD last week with undisclosed reason; historically solid and potentially sub‑10% owned — risky but interesting GPP leverage if you’re comfortable with uncertainty.
- Sahith Theegala — value pivot — price at $7,300 looks cheap if you buy into his recent improvement and upside; odds and talent outpace salary in this lower $7,000 band — boom‑bust GPP value.
- Tom Hoge — punt/sprinkle — past Pebble winner with shaky recent form and mediocre long-term stats, but still better win odds than peers at $6,500 — thin but viable course‑history GPP punt when paired with Scheffler.
- Ryo Hisatsune — target — back-to-back top‑10s and T2 at Farmers, earned his way into this field; viewed as a safer $6,000–$7,000 option with strong current form — cash-friendly value and GPP mix, especially when spending up.
What to Monitor Before Lock
- Late-week weather at Pebble: wind and rain could intensify the short-game premium and suppress scoring.
- Final ownership projections on Scheffler vs. balanced $9,000 starts, especially Henley, Si Woo, and Fitzpatrick.
- Any late news on illness/injury/withdrawal risk for names like Aberg and Spaun in a no‑cut setting.
- How the field and projections treat course-history darlings (Day, Nick Taylor, Hoge) versus current-form risers (Coody, Berger, Hisatsune).