PGA Drive for Show, DFS for Dough - WM Phoenix Open

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2026-02-04 16:36:40

Our PGA gurus are here to break down the field for the WM Phoenix Open! Join Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) and Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) for Drive for Show, DFS for Dough, your first look at this week’s PGA DFS slate.

Show Highlights

This podcast episode focuses on providing expert strategies and insights for the WM Phoenix Open. Hosted by Justin Van Zuiden and Derek Farnsworth, the episode dives into the importance of player selection, course evaluation, and lineup building.

Watch the video below to hear all about the WM Phoenix Open PGA DFS slate!

Course Overview

• TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 just under 7,300 yards, with narrow fairways (~29 yards) but an extremely driver-heavy profile—about 90% of non-par-3 tee shots were drivers last year versus a 69% TOUR average.
• The back-nine stretch of 15–17 is classic risk-reward, with scoring volatility late in rounds that can swing DFS outcomes in both classic and showdown formats.
• Greens are large and tiered; missing the correct tier funnels balls away from pins, making precise approach play and overall ball striking the key skill set.
• Around-the-green play and scrambling are de-emphasized because greens are easier to hit and scrambling rates are higher than TOUR average, lowering the need to lean on short game specialists.
• Course history is bumped up this week; TPC Scottsdale ranks among the most predictive tracks on TOUR, and the raucous atmosphere can overwhelm true first-timers.
• The hosts are focusing on Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Approach, Desert-Course Performance, and Putting on Bermuda with Poa overseed, while down-weighting around-the-green metrics.

DFS strategy

• Scheffler is priced at $14,500 on DraftKings and $15,400 on FanDuel, leaving about $7,100 per spot for the final five golfers; that extreme tag squeezes roster flexibility and makes many Scheffler lineups look similar.
• In single entry, both hosts prefer starting lineups in the $9,000 range rather than forcing Scheffler plus multiple punts; it’s hard to find five sub‑$7,100 golfers they “feel good” about making the cut.
• In MME, Noto plans to be overweight on Scheffler around a mid‑20s ownership projection, accepting the constraint because of his win rate and Phoenix ceiling, but still avoiding him in single entry.
• The $9,000 range (Si Woo Kim, Cam Young, Ben Griffin, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun) is deep with players who project similarly to each other and close to Xander, making balanced builds and two $9,000 golfers attractive.
• The hosts are prioritizing bombers and elite tee-to-green profiles over short-game specialists, specifically targeting players who gain off the tee and on approach while de-emphasizing scrambling.
• They caution that projections may underrate DP World Tour imports and some Europeans, and Noto has updated his model to incorporate raw Strokes Gained and DP data with field-strength adjustments.
• Practical takeaway: In GPPs, start more lineups with Xander or multiple $9,000 options, lean into ball strikers and desert histories, and use Scheffler selectively where you’re comfortable punting and embracing duplication risk.

Player highlights

$10,000+

• Scottie Scheffler — cautious / targeted exposure — All-time-high salary with massive win equity, two recent wins here, and seven wins in his last fourteen starts, but his price forces five sub‑$7,100 plays and creates similar builds; preferred fade in single entry, overweight in MME where you can manage portfolio risk.
• Xander Schauffele — target — Elite all-around profile, strong course history (three straight top 10s in his last three Phoenix starts), missed cut at Torrey only on the number after a poor driving day, and could be somewhat overlooked between Scheffler and the cheaper $9,000; ideal GPP starting point, viable in cash if fading Scheffler.

$9,000

• Ben Griffin — strong target — Number two in Noto’s model and in Strokes Gained per round over the last eight months, trailing only Scheffler; three wins in the last year, added distance off the tee, made both cuts here when he was a weaker player; excellent all-around profile for cash, single entry, and GPPs.
• Si Woo Kim — target — Arguably second-best form in the field with recent finishes of second, sixth, and eleventh, and five straight made cuts here with four straight top 30s after early career struggles at this event; strong fit for all formats with slightly more emphasis on GPP leverage.
• Matt Fitzpatrick — sprinkle/target — Coming off four top‑6s and a win in his last six DP World Tour starts before a mediocre Amex, with his best game built on gaining across the bag; viewed as poised for a big season and a solid GPP play in this range.
• Viktor Hovland — GPP target — Weakness around the green is muted at TPC Scottsdale, he has a run of worldwide top 25s, and tends to string strong stretches together; limited course history success but under-the-radar upside for tournaments.
• Hideki Matsuyama — GPP target — Excellent historical record here and a recent win at the Hero plus early-season top 15s; projects for modest ownership in a crowded tier, making him a leverage play in multi-entry and large-field GPPs.
• J.J. Spaun — leverage GPP target — Three straight missed cuts at this event but significantly improved overall game and strong desert-course results; hosts expect the field to shy away because of course history, making him a contrarian $9,000 pivot.

$8,000

• Brooks Koepka — target — Priced at $8,700 with early ownership around seven percent, has two wins at TPC Scottsdale, solid DP World Tour form, and gained over four strokes on approach last week while losing with the putter; premium GPP play with winning upside at a discount.
• Jake Knapp — target — Driver-heavy profile, two made cuts here already, and strong early-season form; fits the bomber angle the hosts want and works in all GPP formats as a mid‑tier core piece.
• Pierceson Coody — target — Coming off a T2 with three closing birdies, finally secured status and is now converting long-recognized talent; first time at Phoenix but viewed as a strong course fit and viable in both cash and GPPs, with ownership likely elevated.
• Sahith Theegala — cautious sprinkle — Nearly won here in his debut and has a memorable course narrative, but price spike from low‑$7,000s earlier in the season creates sticker shock; mainly a tournament sprinkle for those embracing volatility.
• Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa — fades/cautious — Fowler considered overpriced at $8,900, Spieth priced above what Justin is willing to pay given his long-standing skepticism, and Morikawa’s form described as “terrible” since last spring; largely avoided except maybe small GPP shares.
• Chris Gotterup — GPP target — Bomber who fits the off‑the‑tee heavy setup and is preferred over short-game specialists in this range; better suited for large-field GPPs and game stacks around bomber builds.

$7,000 / Value

• Haotong Li — target — Continues to string top finishes and keeps getting small price bumps while remaining in the mid‑$7,000s; model-friendly ball striker and a “ride until he disappoints” staple for GPPs.
• Rasmus & Nicolai Højgaard — targets — Both underpriced Europeans with strong DP World Tour ball-striking numbers and prior made cuts at TPC Scottsdale; Rasmus is the better putter, Nicolai the better ball striker, and both are attractive for balanced builds and large-field tournaments.
• Garrick Higgo — volatile target — Classic high-volatility profile with five straight PGA top 10s before a recent missed cut, plus a solid DP finish and two made cuts here in three tries; strong ball-striking fit for GPPs, especially in Scheffler or double‑$9,000 constructions.
• Nørgaard-Petersen — GPP target — One of the best ball strikers in the field when including DP World Tour data, long off the tee and weak with the putter, fitting the hosts’ “ball striker over short game” angle; ideal for large-field GPPs and Scheffler builds.
• Tony Finau — sprinkle — Gaining tee-to-green again, T11 last week, with prior success here and Scottsdale ties; fits the bomber narrative and is a reasonable mid‑tier GPP option.
• Daniel Berger, Nick Taylor — mixed views — Berger’s ball striking has been excellent but short game poor, making him a fringe GPP flier; Taylor’s extreme course-history profile (second, first, 25th here) tempts, but projections and long-term stats keep the hosts mostly off except for narrative-driven shares.
• Sub‑$7,000 punts (Joel Dahmen, Daniel Brown, Austin Smotherman, John Parry) — deep GPP only — Dahmen’s Arizona connection and recent top‑10 put him in Scheffler builds; Brown has DP form and early PGA top 30s; Smotherman projects well despite recent missed cuts; Perry has made all three PGA cuts; all are acknowledged as thin but necessary options when jamming in high-priced studs.

What to monitor before lock

• Final ownership projections on Scheffler vs. the $9,000 tier, especially Xander and Ben Griffin.
• Any late model updates on DP World Tour players and Euro imports are now integrated into Noto’s strokes-gained framework.
• Health/form confirmation for recent question marks like Pendreith and other volatility plays the hosts flagged as “wait-and-see.”
• Early-week sentiment shifts on underpriced Euros (Højgaards, Higo, Nørgaard-Petersen) that could quietly spike ownership.
• Course-fit and comfort reports for first-timers at TPC Scottsdale, given the unique atmosphere.