PGA First Look: Arnold Palmer Invitational
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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It was a bittersweet week for me at the Valspar Championship. I’ve been a fan of Adam Hadwin’s for quite a while, but recommended a fade of him on Twitter. I had very little exposure to him overall, as I always try to play the golfers that I recommend. While it wasn’t my most profitable week, it was great to see Hadwin claim his first PGA Tour victory. It’s been quite the season for him so far, as he already has a 59 on his resume. Hadwin was able to edge out Patrick Cantlay, who has been inspiring in his comeback from injury. In last week’s start alone, Cantlay made enough money for the entire season to get his full-time status back on tour.
The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This will be the first time the event has been hosted since the King past. I’m not a big iced tea guy, but I make sure to grab an Arnold Palmer from the gas station every year before the tournament starts. The event is hosted at Bay Hill, which is a Par 72 that measures over 7,400 yards. The course features four par fives and four par threes. It also features plenty of trouble. There are bunkers all over the place and water is in play on nine of the 18 holes. We have a stacked field with five of the top ten and 13 of the top 20 golfers in the world. This is a little different from a usual PGA Tour event, as it is an invitational. There are only 121 golfers in the field this week, which means at least 58% of the field will make the cut.
Jason Day is seeking to become the third straight player to win back-to-back titles at this event. Tiger Woods accomplished the feat in 2012 and 2013 and Matt Every (of all people) did it in 2014 and 2015. This is one of the many tracks that Tiger dominated in his prime, as he has racked up eight career victories at Arnie’s place. Over the years, this hasn’t been a course that has really favored length or accuracy off the tee. Golfers will need to take advantage of the four par fives on the scorecard and in recent seasons, we have seen the winning score in the high teens (under par, course). I’m basically just looking for good all-around golfers. They need to be able to hit long irons (specifically from 200+ yards), scramble, and putt.
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds.
Recent Winners of this Event: Jason Day (2016), Matt Every (2015 & 2014), Tiger Woods (2013 & 2012)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Around the Green
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Approaches from > 200 Yards
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds Diff | FD Odds Diff | Cuts | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $12,000 | $10,700 | 3 | 7 | 0% | 0% | 2/2 | 27 | 11 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Henrik Stenson | $11,500 | $10,200 | 5 | 9 | 0% | 33% | 5/5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
| Jason Day | $10,600 | $10,300 | 2 | 14 | -33% | -100% | 3/3 | 1 | 17 | 500 | 45 | 500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,300 | $10,000 | 4 | 13 | 25% | 25% | 2/2 | 6 | 21 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,900 | $9,500 | 9 | 17 | 0% | 17% | 2/3 | 500 | 29 | 86 | 3 | 500 |
| Justin Rose | $9,500 | $9,700 | 13 | 19 | 0% | -20% | 3/4 | 9 | 500 | 94 | 2 | 15 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $9,300 | $8,400 | 28 | 47 | -86% | -30% | 1/1 | 500 | 9 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $9,100 | $7,800 | 16 | 35 | -25% | 33% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $9,000 | $8,800 | 24 | 31 | 22% | 13% | 4/5 | 36 | 13 | 8 | 114 | 63 |
| Paul Casey | $8,800 | $8,900 | 15 | 33 | 20% | -14% | 2/3 | 9 | 70 | 60 | 500 | 500 |
| Thomas Pieters | $8,700 | $7,100 | 29 | 34 | 18% | 68% | 1/1 | 76 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $8,600 | $7,700 | 33 | 41 | 8% | 35% | 4/4 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 34 | 500 |
| Zach Johnson | $8,500 | $8,500 | 42 | 57 | -38% | -100% | 5/5 | 5 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 11 |
| Adam Hadwin | $8,400 | $7,900 | 51 | 59 | -43% | -54% | 1/1 | 36 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $8,300 | $7,700 | 19 | 75 | -93% | -71% | 1/2 | 500 | 62 | 500 | 77 | 500 |
| Ryan Moore | $8,200 | $7,500 | 36 | 49 | 6% | 29% | 3/4 | 74 | 500 | 60 | 102 | 4 |
| Martin Laird | $8,100 | $7,400 | 111 | 88 | -124% | -65% | 5/5 | 43 | 43 | 76 | 34 | 36 |
| Kevin Chappell | $8,000 | $6,300 | 40 | 81 | -72% | 30% | 3/5 | 2 | 102 | 14 | 110 | 24 |
| Jason Kokrak | $7,900 | $5,400 | 106 | 74 | -47% | 58% | 3/4 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 500 | 100 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,800 | $6,900 | 110 | 84 | -65% | -10% | 4/4 | 36 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,700 | $6,900 | 32 | 86 | -67% | -17% | 1/1 | 17 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alexander Noren | $7,700 | $6,600 | 11 | 94 | -95% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Na | $7,600 | $7,400 | 47 | 62 | 9% | 9% | 3/3 | 500 | 6 | 14 | 500 | 4 |
| Tony Finau | $7,600 | $7,800 | 70 | 50 | 26% | -13% | 1/2 | 43 | 70 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,600 | $7,600 | 46 | 64 | 4% | -10% | 1/2 | 95 | 49 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,500 | $6,900 | 30 | 69 | 0% | 13% | 1/2 | 27 | 500 | 103 | 500 | 500 |
| Bubba Watson | $7,500 | $8,000 | 17 | 68 | 4% | -127% | 2/2 | 500 | 500 | WD | 14 | 4 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,500 | $6,200 | 94 | 124 | -96% | -9% | 1/1 | 6 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jim Herman | $7,500 | $4,800 | 76 | 101 | -69% | 49% | 1/2 | 63 | 70 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,500 | $5,500 | 80 | 156 | -138% | 2% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 7 | 500 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,400 | $7,500 | 27 | 41 | 61% | 43% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,400 | $8,000 | 44 | 50 | 48% | -45% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,400 | $5,400 | 215 | 151 | -84% | 14% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 122 | 500 |
| Bud Cauley | $7,400 | $5,300 | 181 | 159 | -106% | 11% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 114 | 4 |
| Danny Lee | $7,400 | $5,600 | 103 | 171 | -116% | -14% | 2/3 | 95 | 17 | 31 | 500 | 500 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,300 | $6,500 | 83 | 120 | -39% | -22% | 5/5 | 36 | 29 | 10 | 40 | 29 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,300 | $6,200 | 221 | 162 | -81% | -38% | 2/5 | 89 | 79 | 66 | 63 | 104 |
| Danny Willett | $7,300 | $7,900 | 14 | 114 | -31% | -262% | 1/1 | 500 | 29 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,300 | $5,700 | 124 | 191 | -97% | -25% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $7,300 | $4,600 | 154 | 276 | -150% | 11% | 1/1 | 12 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $7,200 | $7,300 | 35 | 57 | 54% | 24% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Luke List | $7,200 | $5,800 | 182 | 156 | -51% | -13% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,200 | $6,000 | 93 | 134 | -27% | -2% | 2/3 | 36 | 11 | 110 | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $7,200 | $5,500 | 85 | 251 | -98% | -29% | 2/4 | 95 | 55 | 96 | 500 | 33 |
| Greg Owen | $7,200 | $4,500 | 263 | 338 | -149% | 4% | 4/4 | 46 | 500 | 72 | 50 | 20 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,100 | $6,700 | 72 | 49 | 70% | 60% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,100 | $7,200 | 60 | 101 | 2% | -73% | 3/4 | 68 | 43 | 500 | 122 | 36 |
| Troy Merritt | $7,100 | $4,800 | 209 | 263 | -80% | 3% | 1/1 | 3 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Rod Pampling | $7,100 | $4,600 | 143 | 326 | -117% | 1% | 2/4 | 500 | 93 | 67 | 110 | 36 |
| Robby Shelton | $7,100 | $4,500 | 1070 | 297 | -107% | 10% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Russell Henley | $7,000 | $6,300 | 115 | 66 | 53% | 45% | 1/4 | 95 | 49 | 86 | 90 | 500 |
| Graeme McDowell | $7,000 | $6,900 | 87 | 64 | 55% | 23% | 3/5 | 95 | 79 | 10 | 45 | 2 |
| Pat Perez | $7,000 | $6,700 | 68 | 88 | 24% | -11% | 2/4 | 500 | 93 | 67 | 50 | 84 |
| Billy Horschel | $7,000 | $6,800 | 75 | 87 | 27% | -9% | 4/4 | 20 | 43 | 43 | 75 | 500 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $7,000 | $6,700 | 48 | 90 | 22% | -14% | 1/1 | 36 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $7,000 | $6,600 | 137 | 114 | 6% | -23% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| David Hearn | $7,000 | $5,000 | 188 | 221 | -49% | 3% | 4/4 | 20 | 43 | 52 | 45 | 500 |
| Grayson Murray | $7,000 | $4,800 | 153 | 262 | -61% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Harold Varner | $7,000 | $4,800 | 133 | 309 | -90% | -13% | 0/1 | 95 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,000 | $5,100 | 69 | 432 | -112% | -42% | 1/1 | 63 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Charles Howell | $6,900 | $7,200 | 63 | 71 | 56% | -4% | 5/5 | 46 | 21 | 35 | 45 | 20 |
| Brooks Koepka | $6,900 | $7,700 | 23 | 81 | 49% | -82% | 1/1 | 500 | WD | 26 | 500 | 500 |
| David Lingmerth | $6,900 | $6,000 | 88 | 149 | 10% | -8% | 4/4 | 63 | 13 | 52 | 50 | 500 |
| John Huh | $6,900 | $5,300 | 200 | 154 | 3% | 18% | 4/4 | 68 | 55 | 500 | 27 | 73 |
| Roberto Castro | $6,900 | $4,800 | 84 | 201 | -20% | 15% | 1/1 | 46 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | $6,900 | $5,700 | 248 | 194 | -18% | -26% | 2/4 | 500 | 117 | 35 | 90 | 20 |
| Scott Brown | $6,900 | $5,400 | 114 | 166 | -8% | 0% | 2/3 | 27 | 500 | 103 | 13 | 500 |
| Camilo Villegas | $6,900 | $5,000 | 307 | 235 | -30% | -1% | 5/5 | 55 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 42 |
| Jeunghun Wang | $6,900 | $5,200 | 45 | 204 | -21% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cody Gribble | $6,900 | $4,900 | 203 | 324 | -61% | -23% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Every | $6,900 | $4,800 | 858 | 266 | -39% | 1% | 4/5 | 77 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 24 |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,900 | $5,500 | 105 | 488 | -85% | -79% | 0/2 | 108 | 500 | 500 | 77 | 500 |
| Marc Leishman | $6,800 | $7,100 | 62 | 86 | 51% | -29% | 3/5 | 17 | 79 | 31 | 90 | 48 |
| Graham DeLaet | $6,800 | $6,700 | 129 | 78 | 59% | 14% | 1/2 | 500 | 79 | 500 | 50 | 500 |
| Chris Kirk | $6,800 | $6,000 | 86 | 99 | 41% | 16% | 3/4 | 12 | 93 | 60 | 16 | 500 |
| William McGirt | $6,800 | $6,400 | 52 | 156 | 16% | -42% | 4/5 | 73 | 59 | 110 | 8 | 63 |
| Ian Poulter | $6,800 | $6,300 | 204 | 146 | 26% | -23% | 5/5 | 46 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 3 |
| J.J. Spaun | $6,800 | $5,400 | 117 | 154 | 18% | 9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Hurley | $6,800 | $4,800 | 130 | 279 | -26% | -7% | 2/4 | 57 | 79 | 96 | 500 | 66 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,800 | $4,900 | 165 | 324 | -34% | -23% | 1/2 | 77 | 500 | 500 | 21 | 500 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $6,800 | $4,800 | 194 | 265 | -15% | 2% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 77 | 500 |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,800 | $4,900 | 175 | 444 | -51% | -38% | 1/3 | 43 | 79 | 500 | 500 | 92 |
| Sam Saunders | $6,800 | $4,700 | 431 | 362 | -41% | -4% | 2/4 | 95 | 29 | 43 | 500 | 100 |
| Tim Herron | $6,800 | $4,500 | 530 | 912 | -58% | -8% | 1/5 | 113 | 99 | 86 | 77 | 11 |
| Lucas Glover | $6,700 | $6,200 | 157 | 85 | 60% | 28% | 2/4 | 27 | 106 | 14 | 90 | 500 |
| Harris English | $6,700 | $6,500 | 89 | 106 | 46% | -12% | 3/5 | 77 | 29 | 14 | 57 | 104 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,700 | $6,000 | 77 | 94 | 52% | 20% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $6,700 | $5,600 | 104 | 145 | 38% | 10% | 2/5 | 17 | 106 | 77 | 77 | 15 |
| Chez Reavie | $6,700 | $5,600 | 126 | 187 | 18% | -19% | 2/2 | 60 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 70 |
| Chad Campbell | $6,700 | $5,100 | 183 | 182 | 20% | 11% | 4/5 | 20 | 70 | 74 | 50 | 42 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $6,700 | $5,400 | 191 | 184 | 19% | -5% | 2/3 | 108 | 4 | 35 | 500 | 500 |
| Michael Kim | $6,700 | $4,800 | 261 | 285 | -11% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,700 | $5,400 | 113 | 271 | -2% | -32% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ben Martin | $6,700 | $4,800 | 212 | 207 | 12% | 13% | 2/3 | 12 | 5 | 77 | 500 | 500 |
| Greg Chalmers | $6,700 | $4,500 | 307 | 432 | -27% | -2% | 0/3 | 500 | 500 | 103 | 77 | 96 |
| John Daly | $6,700 | $4,500 | 971 | -36% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,600 | $6,100 | 71 | 119 | 49% | 2% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 77 | 59 |
| Kevin Streelman | $6,600 | $5,800 | 125 | 150 | 42% | -2% | 2/3 | 108 | 67 | 500 | 21 | 500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $6,600 | $5,600 | 132 | 151 | 40% | 2% | 1/1 | 20 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| James Hahn | $6,600 | $5,300 | 79 | 224 | 21% | -7% | 0/2 | 77 | 500 | 500 | 77 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,600 | $4,800 | 142 | 232 | 20% | 9% | 2/3 | 500 | 79 | 60 | 16 | 500 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,600 | $4,800 | 155 | 269 | 11% | 0% | 1/3 | 89 | 500 | 35 | 102 | 500 |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | $6,600 | $4,700 | 128 | 245 | 18% | 19% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,600 | $4,900 | 123 | 282 | 4% | -16% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,600 | $4,900 | 177 | 332 | -4% | -26% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 115 |
| Curtis Luck | $6,600 | $4,600 | 306 | 1% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Steven Bowditch | $6,600 | $4,500 | 508 | 1147 | -22% | -11% | 1/1 | 500 | 62 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Robert Gamez | $6,600 | $4,500 | 1471 | -23% | -12% | 0/5 | 118 | 119 | 113 | 122 | 96 | |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,500 | $4,500 | 201 | 275 | 19% | 17% | 1/1 | 12 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Rob Oppenheim | $6,500 | $4,500 | 365 | 275 | 19% | 17% | 1/1 | 20 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandon Hagy | $6,500 | $4,600 | 335 | 276 | 17% | 11% | 0/1 | 500 | 93 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Retief Goosen | $6,500 | $4,800 | 268 | 424 | 2% | -24% | 3/4 | 46 | 79 | 31 | 27 | 500 |
| Ernie Els | $6,500 | $4,900 | 399 | 403 | 3% | -33% | 3/4 | 74 | 13 | 500 | 102 | 4 |
| Boo Weekley | $6,500 | $4,500 | 329 | 382 | 5% | 2% | 2/5 | 108 | 114 | 96 | 69 | 53 |
| Vijay Singh | $6,500 | $4,600 | 240 | 462 | -2% | -10% | 4/5 | 89 | 57 | 20 | 57 | 24 |
| Ryan Ruffels | $6,500 | $4,500 | 523 | 382 | 5% | 2% | 0/1 | 77 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Steve Wheatcroft | $6,500 | $4,500 | 423 | 476 | -3% | -6% | 1/1 | 500 | 59 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matthias Schwab | $6,500 | $4,500 | 524 | -5% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Trevor Immelman | $6,500 | $4,500 | 985 | -7% | -10% | 2/5 | 77 | 114 | 26 | 102 | 11 | |
| David Hronek | $6,500 | $4,500 | 1471 | -9% | -12% | 0/1 | 119 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Odds Diff | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2012 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |