PGA First Look: AT&T Byron Nelson

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-17 12:54:08

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Webb Simpson ran away with The Players Championship last week. Despite a great run from Tiger Woods on Sunday, Simpson had no pressure applied on the back nine. He was so far in front that a water ball and a bad chip on his final hole didn’t even matter. It was another great tournament, although the scoring was better than expected with the absence of wind. We now have 17 different Players champions over the last 17 years. We go from the most stacked fields of the season to one of the weakest fields we have seen in months at the AT&T Byron Nelson. There are a few big names up top, but after that the talent level drops significantly.

In addition to a weak field, we have a new golf course to navigate through. Trinity Forest is a U.S. links-style course that features no trees, no water, and no rough. Early indications are that it is going to play similar to Erin Hills and Pinehurst No. 2. The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,380 yards. While the course looks long on the scorecard, most of the golfers that have played here before say that it’s more of a second shot golf course. It’s going to play firm and fast and it’s a course that requires both imagination and an ability to execute. With no major advantage to distance or to accuracy, any type of golfer can contend this week, which makes our job as DFS players even more difficult.

The biggest defense for the course is the wind, so keep an eye on the forecast throughout the week. It’s typically very windy in Texas and we could see a significant difference in scoring between the morning and afternoon tee time waves. If you want to play the local angle, Jordan Spieth, Beau Hossler, and Hunter Mahan are all members at this course. It’s not going to play the same this week as it does on a typical Monday afternoon, but experience certainly isn’t going to hurt. A number of approach shots require you to aim away from the flag and use the slopes on and around the green to get the ball close to the hole.

I’d love to sit here and tell you exactly how the course is going to play this week, but the truth is — nobody knows. We don’t have any past data to work with, so it’s hard to nail down the type of golfer that we should be targeting. When that’s the case, I tend to rely on ball strikers and golfers familiar with the course or area. From most interviews that I have read, golfers say that a strong approach game is more important that off the tee. With this being a Par 71, I will be looking at par four scoring. And finally, since birdies are crucial to fantasy scoring, I’m going to heavily weigh birdie or better percentage as well.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties will move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Par 4 Scoring
4) Strokes Gained off the Tee
5) Par 5 Scoring

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds
Jordan Spieth	$11,900	$12,900	$18,800	3	5	0%	0%	0%
Matt Kuchar	$10,700	$12,100	$16,900	22	14	0%	33%	0%
Sergio Garcia	$10,100	$12,400	$16,800	14	16	0%	-50%	0%
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,900	$11,600	$16,300	9	21	-25%	0%	-25%
Billy Horschel	$9,700	$10,200	$16,000	79	22	-20%	50%	14%
Jimmy Walker	$9,500	$11,300	$16,200	56	19	33%	43%	20%
Branden Grace	$9,400	$11,500	$15,900	36	23	0%	-17%	13%
Adam Scott	$9,200	$11,800	$16,100	65	24	0%	-100%	-33%
Marc Leishman	$9,100	$11,200	$15,800	16	26	0%	-13%	0%
Beau Hossler	$9,000	$9,500	$15,200	82	37	0%	38%	0%
Brandt Snedeker	$8,900	$10,900	$14,800	86	53	-27%	-56%	-8%
Aaron Wise	$8,800	$8,700	$15,100	99	40	8%	58%	0%
Charles Howell	$8,700	$10,700	$15,000	59	41	8%	-20%	0%
Rory Sabbatini	$8,600	$8,900	$14,100	164	76	-50%	9%	-5%
Peter Uihlein	$8,500	$8,800	$14,100	57	60	-7%	33%	20%
Scott Piercy	$8,400	$9,600	$14,300	155	65	-6%	-13%	-13%
J.B. Holmes	$8,300	$9,400	$14,000	110	86	-41%	-41%	-9%
Grayson Murray	$8,200	$9,300	$14,200	101	57	17%	17%	6%
Maverick McNealy	$8,100	$8,100	$13,500	731	88	-32%	34%	0%
Russell Knox	$8,000	$9,300	$13,800	126	82	-10%	-22%	4%
Martin Laird	$7,900	$10,000	$14,700	100	47	38%	0%	7%
Graeme McDowell	$7,900	$8,800	$14,200	229	72	10%	21%	-19%
Joaquin Niemann	$7,800	$8,700	$13,600	654	84	0%	12%	4%
Keith Mitchell	$7,800	$9,200	$13,200	168	97	-17%	-35%	7%
Ryan Palmer	$7,800	$10,500	$14,200	109	67	22%	-64%	-13%
Harris English	$7,800	$8,300	$13,300	217	100	-26%	15%	-4%
Patrick Rodgers	$7,700	$8,200	$12,600	138	136	-44%	-8%	-11%
Ben Crane	$7,700	$8,300	$12,500	396	143	-81%	-44%	-23%
Satoshi Kodaira	$7,700	$9,100	$13,400	29	94	4%	-24%	4%
James Hahn	$7,600	$8,400	$12,600	74	115	-3%	3%	11%
Troy Merritt	$7,600	$8,000	$12,800	352	137	-33%	11%	-33%
Tom Lovelady	$7,600	$7,800	$12,500	275	142	-53%	21%	-15%
Matt Jones	$7,600	$7,800	$12,100	317	151	-83%	5%	-4%
Aaron Baddeley	$7,500	$8,600	$12,600	228	123	0%	-21%	3%
Abraham Ancer	$7,500	$8,500	$12,300	199	141	-32%	-50%	-5%
Bill Haas	$7,500	$9,800	$13,500	84	98	18%	-100%	-12%
Johnson Wagner	$7,500	$8,200	$12,700	356	132	-12%	-6%	-15%
Tyrone Van Aswegen	$7,500	$8,100	$12,000	316	153	-65%	-47%	8%
Sam Saunders	$7,400	$8,400	$12,400	173	120	18%	0%	24%
J.J. Spaun	$7,400	$7,900	$12,100	160	161	-59%	-19%	-17%
Alex Cejka	$7,400	$7,700	$12,000	253	166	-67%	2%	-7%
David Lingmerth	$7,400	$7,800	$12,200	210	140	-8%	28%	11%
Nicholas Lindheim	$7,400	$7,500	$11,900	298	177	-82%	11%	-8%
Matt Every	$7,400	$7,300	$11,700	578	211	-105%	18%	-10%
J.J. Henry	$7,400	$7,500	$11,500	453	223	-118%	-6%	-2%
Sung Kang	$7,400	$7,400	$11,700	118	200	-97%	15%	-5%
Vaughn Taylor	$7,300	$8,100	$12,300	251	140	6%	-16%	-2%
Talor Gooch	$7,300	$7,900	$12,200	205	143	-2%	8%	-2%
Seamus Power	$7,300	$8,000	$12,800	319	122	30%	27%	-10%
Kelly Kraft	$7,300	$7,700	$12,600	169	127	26%	47%	0%
Sam Ryder	$7,300	$7,700	$12,200	246	148	-9%	23%	-9%
Stephan Jaeger	$7,300	$7,700	$12,300	215	139	13%	38%	5%
Brian Stuard	$7,300	$7,800	$11,800	245	181	-53%	-24%	-1%
Chad Campbell	$7,300	$7,800	$11,800	309	169	-43%	-16%	6%
John Huh	$7,200	$8,500	$12,800	211	114	45%	0%	0%
Kevin Na	$7,200	$9,000	$14,200	78	73	64%	9%	-25%
Corey Conners	$7,200	$8,600	$12,100	437	140	24%	-50%	21%
Kevin Tway	$7,200	$8,100	$12,300	221	143	15%	-24%	-9%
Ben Martin	$7,200	$7,900	$12,200	237	151	2%	-4%	-15%
Cameron Percy	$7,200	$7,100	$11,700	537	190	-35%	37%	-1%
Tyler Duncan	$7,200	$7,200	$11,700	406	213	-47%	26%	-11%
Padraig Harrington	$7,200	$7,300	$12,000	218	161	-15%	35%	-3%
Jonathan Randolph	$7,200	$7,000	$11,600	326	214	-49%	36%	-3%
Greg Chalmers	$7,200	$7,600	$11,400	500	231	-60%	-19%	-2%
Conrad Shindler	$7,200	$7,100	$11,400	446	234	-64%	23%	-5%
Joel Dahmen	$7,100	$7,900	$11,900	441	174	-6%	-35%	-6%
Richy Werenski	$7,100	$8,100	$12,000	282	148	23%	-34%	16%
Anirban Lahiri	$7,100	$7,900	$11,900	105	171	-3%	-31%	-3%
Ernie Els	$7,100	$7,500	$11,400	632	235	-38%	-14%	-6%
Hudson Swafford	$7,100	$7,800	$11,200	139	239	-42%	-62%	4%
Nick Taylor	$7,100	$7,700	$11,300	242	249	-48%	-48%	-5%
Martin Piller	$7,100	$7,300	$11,600	252	204	-18%	20%	3%
Fabian Gomez	$7,100	$7,400	$11,100	635	263	-56%	-13%	-3%
John Merrick	$7,100	$7,000	$10,900		299	-70%	13%	-4%
Cody Gribble	$7,100	$7,600	$11,600	375	199	-14%	-1%	6%
Matt Atkins	$7,100	$7,100	$10,500	478	384	-82%	-3%	-3%
Tommy Gainey	$7,100	$7,300	$10,300		536	-106%	-40%	-5%
Cheng-Tsung Pan	$7,000	$8,000	$12,100	190	153	27%	-27%	-8%
Shawn Stefani	$7,000	$7,600	$12,100	369	155	26%	22%	-9%
Daniel Summerhays	$7,000	$8,100	$12,700	295	131	54%	5%	-9%
Robert Garrigus	$7,000	$7,700	$11,300	238	245	-23%	-45%	-3%
Rob Oppenheim	$7,000	$7,100	$11,500	280	226	-10%	26%	-4%
Brett Stegmaier	$7,000	$7,200	$11,000	796	284	-35%	4%	-1%
Peter Malnati	$7,000	$7,800	$11,300	615	240	-22%	-64%	-2%
Jonathan Byrd	$7,000	$7,400	$11,100	314	245	-23%	-5%	4%
Blayne Barber	$7,000	$7,500	$11,000	413	287	-36%	-33%	-2%
Sang-Moon Bae	$7,000	$7,600	$11,100	940	258	-29%	-36%	-1%
Michael Kim	$7,000	$7,200	$11,400	417	238	-19%	15%	-8%
Dou Zecheng	$7,000	$7,200	$10,400	512	375	-53%	-9%	1%
Brendon Todd	$7,000	$7,200	$10,400		400	-56%	-12%	-2%
Andrew Putnam	$6,900	$8,000	$12,600	284	131	59%	18%	-6%
Brian Gay	$6,900	$7,800	$12,200	152	156	35%	-2%	-26%
Nate Lashley	$6,900	$7,400	$12,200	310	148	42%	42%	-13%
Hunter Mahan	$6,900	$8,100	$12,100	601	147	45%	-32%	6%
JT Poston	$6,900	$8,000	$12,000	357	160	33%	-36%	0%
Michael Thompson	$6,900	$7,900	$12,100	296	163	30%	-23%	-21%
Lanto Griffin	$6,900	$7,500	$10,900	391	297	-22%	-39%	-3%
Ryan Blaum	$6,900	$7,500	$10,800	364	300	-24%	-41%	1%
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,900	$7,600	$10,900	265	292	-21%	-49%	-2%
Xin-Jun Zhang	$6,900	$7,200	$10,900		314	-26%	-6%	-6%
Angel Cabrera	$6,900	$7,000	$10,500		387	-33%	5%	-3%
Steve Wheatcroft	$6,900	$7,100	$10,300	724	479	-43%	-11%	-1%
Carl Pettersson	$6,900	$7,000	$10,200		563	-53%	-9%	0%
David Hearn	$6,800	$8,000	$11,900	392	166	37%	-47%	0%
Ricky Barnes	$6,800	$8,000	$11,000	429	283	0%	-131%	0%
Martin Flores	$6,800	$7,400	$11,100	308	253	5%	-9%	1%
Steve Marino	$6,800	$7,100	$11,500	695	233	14%	24%	-7%
Will Zalatoris	$6,800	$7,500	$10,300		421	-20%	-56%	3%
Rick Lamb	$6,800	$7,100	$10,800	576	334	-12%	1%	-2%
Roberto Diaz	$6,800	$7,200	$10,400	559	368	-13%	-8%	2%
Derek Fathauer	$6,800	$7,100	$10,400	306	468	-24%	-10%	-8%
Robert Allenby	$6,800		$10,100	1006	792	-41%		0%
Stuart Appleby	$6,800	$7,300	$10,200	795	616	-35%	-44%	-1%
John Rollins	$6,800	$7,000	$10,300		526	-30%	-5%	-5%
Andrew Yun	$6,800	$7,300	$10,400	515	437	-22%	-31%	-6%
Parker McLachlin	$6,800		$10,200		683	-38%		-4%
Denny McCarthy	$6,700	$7,700	$12,100	421	158	49%	9%	-13%
Bronson Burgoon	$6,700	$7,300	$11,400	419	219	29%	14%	3%
Ryan Armour	$6,700	$7,700	$11,700	170	186	38%	-11%	0%
George McNeill	$6,700	$7,300	$11,900	1034	174	41%	29%	-5%
Cameron Tringale	$6,700	$7,300	$11,400	383	236	21%	5%	-7%
Robert Streb	$6,700	$7,500	$11,400	232	221	28%	-5%	2%
Dicky Pride	$6,700	$7,000	$10,400	832	424	-8%	2%	-5%
Tim Herron	$6,700	$7,000	$10,200		658	-22%	-12%	-3%
Brendon De Jonge	$6,700	$7,300	$10,400		413	-5%	-27%	-3%
Mark Wilson	$6,700	$7,000	$10,400		464	-9%	0%	-7%
Steven Bowditch	$6,700	$7,000	$10,100		816	-26%	-16%	-1%
David Berganio	$6,700	$7,000	$10,100		897	-29%	-18%	-3%
Adam Schenk	$6,600	$7,500	$11,700	323	199	42%	6%	-3%
Zac Blair	$6,600	$7,600	$11,200	465	258	22%	-36%	-3%
Ethan Tracy	$6,600	$7,100	$11,700	573	209	39%	32%	-8%
John Senden	$6,600	$7,500	$11,000	933	288	17%	-34%	-3%
D.J. Trahan	$6,600	$7,000	$10,200		616	-9%	-9%	-1%
Billy Hurley	$6,600	$7,100	$10,300	408	555	-7%	-18%	-7%
Ken Duke	$6,600	$7,300	$10,300		500	-2%	-35%	-2%
Kris Blanks	$6,600	$7,000	$10,200		768	-12%	-13%	-4%
Noah Goodwin	$6,600	$7,000	$10,800		300	12%	12%	1%
Brian Norman	$6,600	$7,000	$10,100		938	-18%	-19%	-3%
David Duval	$6,600	$7,000	$10,200		791	-13%	-14%	-5%
Omar Uresti	$6,600	$7,100	$10,000		850	-16%	-27%	2%
Benjamin Silverman	$6,500	$7,300	$11,300	276	255	29%	-3%	-8%
Eric Axley	$6,500	$7,200	$10,900	370	290	23%	0%	-1%
Rod Pampling	$6,500	$7,500	$10,900	360	288	24%	-34%	1%
Oliver Goss	$6,500		$10,400	1125	418	12%		-3%
Geoff Ogilvy	$6,500	$7,400	$11,300	415	230	38%	4%	6%
Troy Matteson	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300		524	6%	-3%	-2%
Brian Davis	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300		537	3%	-7%	-6%
Kyle Thompson	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300	455	524	6%	-3%	-2%
Colt Knost	$6,500	$7,000	$10,500		366	17%	9%	0%
Daniel Chopra	$6,500	$7,000	$10,200	927	622	-1%	-11%	-2%
Smylie Kaufman	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300	365	524	6%	-3%	-2%
Charlie Beljan	$6,500	$7,000	$10,100		854	-6%	-17%	-2%

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term	Description
Site Odds	The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR	Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts	Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns	Course history at this event in the last five seasons.