PGA First Look: AT&T Byron Nelson
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Event Preview
Big congratulations to Max Homa (and anyone that bet him or played him in DFS) for taking down the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s one of the best follows on Twitter and based on all of the comments from his peers, it sounds like he’s one of the most friendly guys on tour. This week the PGA Tour heads to Dallas for the PGA Championship warm-up. The AT&T Byron Nelson has been around for quite some time, but this is only the second time the event will be held at Trinity Forest Golf Club. We should only look at course history from 2018 and we shouldn’t lean too heavily on statistics from this course a year ago, as we are only dealing with a one tournament sample size.
This course is a Par 71 that measures nearly 7,500 yards. It is unlike any other course that golfers will see on the PGA Tour. I believe there is only a single tree on the property and it’s not even in play on any of the holes. This is an American style links course that played incredibly easy a year ago. It’s hard to miss a fairway here, as they are 58 yards wide on average. For reference, fairways at the Wells Fargo Championship and the RBC Heritage measured 33 and 31 yards wide, respectively. The greens here are monstrous as well, which is why driving accuracy and greens in regulation numbers were off the charts here last season.
The course itself was built on a landfill, which provides many undulations throughout the course. The fairways are made of Zoysia grass, while the greens are made of Bermuda grass. The course is typically set up to play firm and fast, but that may not be the case this week. There has been a lot of rain in the area recently and it looks like more is on the way. If we have wet conditions, the course will play longer and the greens will be more receptive. Given the width of these fairways, that would give a huge edge to distance off the tee. Seeing as how the entire course is exposed, we should keep a close eye on the wind forecast to check for any potential tee time wave advantages.
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.
Recent Winners of this Event:Aaron Wise (2018)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better Percentage
3) Bogey Avoidance
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)
Betting Card
The long shots continue to take down tournaments, which hasn’t been great for the bottom line. Big congratulations to Max Homa and to anyone that bet him at 300/1. Two of the outright bets withdrew over the weekend and three of the four top 20 bets missed the cut. It was one of those weeks you erase from your memory and move on to the next tournament.
YTD: 4 wins, +7 units
Outright Bets
Keith Mitchell 35/1
Sungjae Im 40/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello 45/1
Dylan Fritelli 90/1
Top 20 Bets
Dylan Fritelli 4/1
Nate Lashley 10/1
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2018)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Sal | OWGR | Odds | DK % | FD % | FDRFT % | Cuts | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,000 | $11,500 | $16,800 | 29 | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 16 |
| Brooks Koepka | $11,400 | $12,600 | $18,800 | 3 | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $8,600 | $10,500 | $14,800 | 31 | 38 | 33% | 0% | 17% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Sungjae Im | $9,600 | $10,600 | $15,100 | 60 | 38 | -71% | -33% | -20% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Ryan Moore | $8,800 | $10,300 | $14,700 | 75 | 38 | 0% | -8% | 7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Marc Leishman | $10,000 | $10,800 | $15,600 | 22 | 26 | -20% | 14% | 0% | 1/1 | 2 |
| Charles Howell | $8,500 | $10,400 | $14,700 | 49 | 39 | 13% | -27% | 0% | 1/1 | 9 |
| Keith Mitchell | $9,100 | $10,200 | $15,500 | 56 | 28 | 30% | 46% | 13% | 1/1 | 3 |
| Thomas Pieters | $8,300 | $9,800 | $14,500 | 91 | 55 | -6% | -6% | -19% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Scott Piercy | $8,400 | $9,800 | $14,500 | 86 | 38 | 41% | 44% | 38% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Russell Knox | $8,000 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 67 | 61 | -19% | 14% | 4% | 1/1 | 16 |
| Rory Sabbatini | $9,000 | $10,100 | $14,800 | 176 | 41 | -45% | -14% | -33% | 1/1 | 13 |
| Ryan Palmer | $8,000 | $9,700 | $14,400 | 74 | 54 | 19% | 15% | 11% | 0/1 | 108 |
| Henrik Stenson | $10,300 | $11,000 | $16,000 | 40 | 23 | -25% | 0% | -25% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $8,100 | $9,900 | $14,500 | 53 | 54 | 15% | -6% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Aaron Wise | $9,400 | $10,900 | $15,900 | 62 | 22 | 50% | 33% | 20% | 1/1 | 1 |
| Adam Schenk | $7,000 | $8,500 | $12,400 | 233 | 91 | 32% | 20% | 28% | 1/1 | 59 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,500 | $9,300 | $13,700 | 88 | 66 | 21% | 7% | 7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| C.T. Pan | $7,900 | $9,500 | $13,700 | 55 | 70 | -17% | -13% | 4% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $7,500 | $8,800 | $13,000 | 95 | 85 | -18% | 3% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Trey Mullinax | $7,600 | $9,200 | $13,700 | 220 | 75 | -7% | -10% | -14% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Michael Thompson | $7,200 | $8,600 | $12,600 | 106 | 100 | 2% | 0% | 8% | 1/1 | 59 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | $7,500 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 245 | 81 | -9% | -9% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $7,400 | $8,800 | $13,400 | 162 | 79 | 5% | 13% | 0% | 1/1 | 42 |
| Matt Jones | $7,500 | $8,900 | $13,400 | 214 | 82 | -12% | -3% | -6% | 1/1 | 13 |
| Abraham Ancer | $7,600 | $9,600 | $13,600 | 64 | 59 | 23% | -5% | 26% | 1/1 | 42 |
| Nate Lashley | $6,300 | $7,800 | $11,300 | 395 | 225 | 28% | -1% | 1% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Sung Kang | $7,300 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 138 | 102 | -17% | 11% | 4% | 1/1 | 42 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $7,100 | $8,400 | $12,100 | 194 | 106 | 2% | 5% | 19% | 1/1 | 59 |
| Sam Burns | $7,200 | $8,700 | $12,900 | 108 | 93 | 13% | 5% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Jordan Spieth | $10,800 | $11,200 | $16,400 | 39 | 18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 21 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $7,900 | $9,600 | $14,300 | 220 | 56 | 9% | 5% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Patrick Reed | $9,800 | $11,100 | $15,600 | 19 | 30 | -33% | -100% | -33% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Bud Cauley | $7,400 | $9,000 | $13,100 | 184 | 78 | 8% | -3% | 8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Kevin Na | $8,900 | $10,000 | $15,100 | 50 | 40 | -25% | 0% | -50% | 1/1 | 6 |
| JT Poston | $7,300 | $8,900 | $12,900 | 169 | 83 | 10% | -6% | 7% | 1/1 | 26 |
| Scott Stallings | $7,100 | $8,500 | $12,600 | 129 | 109 | -4% | -8% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Wyndham Clark | $7,300 | $8,500 | $12,500 | 236 | 124 | -43% | -18% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Hank Lebioda | $6,700 | $8,100 | $11,800 | 388 | 162 | 19% | 0% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $7,200 | $8,700 | $12,900 | 212 | 101 | 0% | -9% | -17% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $9,200 | $10,700 | $15,500 | 46 | 31 | 0% | -13% | -13% | 1/1 | 3 |
| Nick Taylor | $7,000 | $8,500 | $12,600 | 253 | 110 | 7% | -10% | -10% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Troy Merritt | $7,100 | $8,200 | $12,400 | 182 | 116 | -9% | 8% | -2% | 1/1 | 53 |
| Denny McCarthy | $7,100 | $8,600 | $12,700 | 157 | 107 | 0% | -13% | -6% | 1/1 | 42 |
| Kevin Tway | $7,600 | $9,000 | $13,600 | 101 | 74 | 3% | 12% | 6% | 1/1 | 9 |
| Shawn Stefani | $7,000 | $8,200 | $12,200 | 300 | 115 | 5% | 10% | 8% | 1/1 | 26 |
| Nick Watney | $7,400 | $8,700 | $13,100 | 178 | 97 | -22% | -2% | -22% | 0/0 | 500 |
| D.J. Trahan | $6,900 | $7,700 | $11,300 | 503 | 256 | -46% | -13% | -16% | 0/1 | 128 |
| Russell Henley | $7,300 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 149 | 95 | -5% | 6% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Roberto Castro | $6,800 | $8,200 | $12,100 | 307 | 151 | 13% | -5% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Pat Perez | $7,700 | $9,500 | $14,000 | 93 | 59 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $7,300 | $8,800 | $12,900 | 190 | 108 | -29% | -35% | -32% | 0/1 | 108 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $7,400 | $8,900 | $12,900 | 43 | 99 | -24% | -28% | -12% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Peter Malnati | $7,000 | $8,300 | $12,300 | 257 | 131 | -2% | -3% | -3% | 1/1 | 59 |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,800 | $9,100 | $13,600 | 140 | 75 | -24% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 3 |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,900 | $7,800 | $11,300 | 317 | 224 | -22% | 0% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Johnson Wagner | $6,800 | $8,000 | $11,300 | 325 | 231 | -24% | -29% | -11% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Brian Gay | $7,300 | $8,900 | $13,100 | 133 | 90 | 5% | -11% | -8% | 1/1 | 12 |
| Julian Etulain | $6,800 | $8,100 | $11,600 | 318 | 231 | -24% | -38% | -21% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,700 | $9,400 | $13,800 | 105 | 77 | -22% | -27% | -27% | 1/1 | 6 |
| Jim Knous | $6,600 | $7,700 | $11,700 | 414 | 185 | 21% | 17% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | $8,700 | $9,900 | $14,400 | 42 | 55 | -43% | -25% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Austin Cook | $7,400 | $8,600 | $12,800 | 147 | 104 | -35% | -6% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Sepp Straka | $6,200 | $7,700 | $10,900 | 358 | 294 | 12% | -24% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Carlos Ortiz | $6,600 | $7,700 | $11,200 | 302 | 245 | -7% | -11% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Mac Hughes | $7,000 | $8,100 | $11,900 | 259 | 156 | -12% | 1% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Martin Laird | $7,200 | $8,400 | $12,800 | 261 | 105 | -6% | 7% | -6% | 0/1 | 150 |
| Kramer Hickok | $7,000 | $8,300 | $12,100 | 203 | 141 | -8% | -10% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Cameron Davis | $6,700 | $7,500 | $11,100 | 193 | 266 | -19% | -2% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Chase Wright | $6,600 | $7,300 | $10,700 | 324 | 269 | -10% | 6% | 16% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Dominic Bozzelli | $6,600 | $7,600 | $11,300 | 326 | 229 | 4% | 5% | -4% | 1/1 | 59 |
| Luke Donald | $7,000 | $8,300 | $12,300 | 529 | 137 | -5% | -7% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Sebastian Munoz | $6,300 | $7,400 | $11,300 | 292 | 244 | 16% | 6% | -14% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Roger Sloan | $6,200 | $7,500 | $10,800 | 273 | 310 | 9% | -15% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Sam Saunders | $6,900 | $7,200 | $11,300 | 294 | 219 | -21% | 28% | 4% | 0/1 | 76 |
| Hudson Swafford | $6,500 | $7,400 | $11,300 | 255 | 230 | 8% | 11% | -8% | 1/1 | 59 |
| Ryan Blaum | $7,000 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 297 | 134 | -3% | 2% | -5% | 1/1 | 6 |
| Alexander Noren | $8,200 | $9,700 | $14,300 | 32 | 60 | -26% | -20% | -14% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Doug Ghim | $6,500 | $7,800 | $11,500 | 435 | 225 | 16% | -1% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Alex Prugh | $6,900 | $7,100 | $11,400 | 496 | 210 | -16% | 34% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Beau Hossler | $7,100 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 112 | 117 | -11% | -7% | -16% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Seamus Power | $7,700 | $9,100 | $13,900 | 263 | 71 | -4% | 10% | -17% | 0/1 | 90 |
| Peter Uihlein | $6,800 | $8,000 | $11,700 | 135 | 176 | 9% | 5% | 1% | 1/1 | 21 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,500 | $7,600 | $11,200 | 186 | 218 | 20% | 14% | 19% | 0/1 | 90 |
| Adam Svensson | $6,200 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 419 | 325 | 3% | -5% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Harris English | $6,900 | $8,000 | $11,700 | 316 | 176 | -1% | 5% | 1% | 0/1 | 90 |
| Cameron Tringale | $6,800 | $8,200 | $11,700 | 569 | 203 | 0% | -21% | -9% | 0/1 | 128 |
| David Lingmerth | $6,800 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 531 | 198 | 1% | 4% | -7% | 0/1 | 90 |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,700 | $8,000 | $11,400 | 468 | 228 | -2% | -18% | -5% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Josh Teater | $6,500 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 456 | 285 | -5% | 8% | 6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| David Hearn | $6,700 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 493 | 229 | -5% | 5% | -7% | 0/1 | 140 |
| Brian Harman | $7,200 | $8,800 | $12,900 | 90 | 95 | 10% | -8% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Ernie Els | $6,700 | $7,800 | $11,300 | 335 | 230 | -8% | -10% | -7% | 0/1 | 108 |
| Brandon Harkins | $6,700 | $7,200 | $11,300 | 312 | 230 | -10% | 19% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Andres Romero | $6,500 | $11,300 | 579 | 274 | -3% | -21% | 0/0 | 500 | ||
| Zack Sucher | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,700 | 954 | 373 | 3% | -2% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Benjamin Silverman | $6,200 | $7,300 | $11,200 | 345 | 270 | 18% | 6% | -3% | 0/1 | 90 |
| Chris Stroud | $6,800 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 192 | 188 | 3% | 5% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Matt Every | $6,700 | $7,900 | $11,500 | 472 | 208 | 8% | 1% | 4% | 0/1 | 76 |
| Jonathan Byrd | $6,400 | $7,900 | $11,300 | 372 | 229 | 19% | -13% | -4% | 1/1 | 42 |
| Justin Harding | $7,800 | $9,400 | $13,900 | 45 | 74 | -20% | -15% | -25% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Bill Haas | $7,100 | $8,300 | $12,200 | 303 | 138 | -21% | -8% | -3% | 0/1 | 76 |
| Ben Crane | $6,700 | $7,500 | $11,000 | 429 | 278 | -24% | -6% | -1% | 1/1 | 53 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,600 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 225 | 185 | 22% | 8% | -3% | 1/1 | 26 |
| Tom Lovelady | $6,200 | $7,600 | $10,400 | 445 | 443 | -12% | -49% | -9% | 1/1 | 70 |
| J.J. Henry | $6,200 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 689 | 348 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 0/1 | 76 |
| Martin Trainer | $6,500 | $7,400 | $10,800 | 126 | 313 | -15% | -12% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Brandon Hagy | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 666 | 310 | 15% | 10% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Roberto Diaz | $6,600 | $7,300 | $10,900 | 597 | 290 | -15% | 2% | -2% | 1/1 | 66 |
| Billy Hurley | $6,900 | $10,400 | 1105 | 314 | -72% | 9% | 0/1 | 76 | ||
| Ricky Barnes | $6,400 | $7,500 | $10,700 | 878 | 320 | -10% | -21% | 1% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Tyler Duncan | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,700 | 488 | 298 | 5% | 13% | 8% | 1/1 | 26 |
| Anders Albertson | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 286 | 370 | -19% | -2% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Tom Hoge | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 332 | 300 | 3% | 11% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Curtis Luck | $6,900 | $8,100 | $11,900 | 452 | 176 | -1% | -1% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Wes Roach | $6,300 | $7,300 | $10,400 | 539 | 413 | -16% | -24% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| George McNeill | $6,600 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 858 | 345 | -34% | 2% | -18% | 0/1 | 128 |
| Robert Streb | $6,600 | $7,800 | $11,300 | 281 | 228 | 7% | -4% | -1% | 1/1 | 53 |
| Brendon Todd | $7,100 | $8,000 | $11,700 | 959 | 218 | -51% | -10% | -14% | 0/1 | 151 |
| Chad Campbell | $6,400 | $7,500 | $10,600 | 417 | 365 | -17% | -29% | -2% | 0/1 | 90 |
| Cody Gribble | $6,800 | $7,700 | $11,300 | 731 | 235 | -26% | -9% | -13% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 657 | 291 | 8% | 15% | -3% | 0/1 | 140 |
| Jose de Jesus Rodriguez | $6,400 | $7,300 | $10,800 | 441 | 395 | -22% | -22% | -18% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Seth Reeves | $6,300 | $7,400 | $10,500 | 519 | 388 | -13% | -27% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,500 | $7,400 | $10,900 | 455 | 298 | -10% | -7% | -6% | 1/1 | 16 |
| Brady Schnell | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 412 | 348 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Whee Kim | $6,400 | $7,100 | $10,800 | 209 | 338 | -12% | -1% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | $6,200 | $7,200 | $10,400 | 454 | 365 | -2% | -11% | 2% | 1/1 | 32 |
| Chad Collins | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 523 | -5% | -18% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Colt Knost | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 293 | -8% | 14% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Martin Piller | $6,000 | $7,300 | $10,400 | 512 | 343 | 14% | -13% | 5% | 1/1 | 21 |
| Sang-Moon Bae | $6,400 | $7,600 | $10,800 | 362 | 314 | -7% | -25% | -4% | 1/1 | 69 |
| Padraig Harrington | $6,900 | $8,100 | $11,600 | 264 | 208 | -13% | -13% | 1% | 0/1 | 76 |
| Jim Herman | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 1019 | 470 | 1% | -12% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Michael Kim | $6,300 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 359 | 418 | -17% | -8% | -6% | 0/1 | 108 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $6,400 | $7,100 | $10,900 | 337 | 318 | -9% | 2% | -13% | 0/1 | 90 |
| Kyle Jones | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 365 | 480 | -7% | -13% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Fredrik Jacobson | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 415 | -2% | -7% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| John Chin | $6,100 | $7,100 | $10,300 | 564 | 495 | -8% | -19% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Will MacKenzie | $6,200 | $7,100 | $10,300 | 495 | -15% | -19% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 1113 | 380 | 2% | -3% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Chris Thompson | $6,000 | $7,100 | $10,400 | 399 | 430 | 4% | -14% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Joey Garber | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 450 | 500 | -10% | -16% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Rod Pampling | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 1064 | 505 | -4% | -17% | -7% | 1/1 | 70 |
| Kris Blanks | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 510 | -4% | -17% | -7% | 0/1 | 146 | |
| Will Claxton | $6,100 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 495 | -8% | -13% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Alvaro Ortiz | $6,200 | $7,200 | 441 | -11% | -21% | 0/0 | 500 | |||
| Davis Riley | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 405 | 6% | -6% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 443 | 2% | -10% | -1% | 0/1 | 140 | |
| Tony Romo | $6,000 | $6,000 | $10,100 | 1683 | -6% | -1% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Stuart Deane | $6,000 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 778 | -6% | -19% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site % Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2013 – 2017 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |