PGA First Look: AT&T Byron Nelson Championship

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The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

It was a bloodbath at the year’s fifth major last week. We had some big names miss the cut after Friday’s round and then we saw Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, and Justin Thomas mail it in on Saturday and miss the secondary cut (MDF). If you had Si Woo Kim winning last week, then you must also have a crystal ball. In his previous four tournaments, he had a withdraw, two missed cuts, and a T22. We also saw a strong performance from Ian Poulter, so it was a whacky week altogether. Regardless, congrats to Si Woo on the biggest win of his career.

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The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship. We typically see a weaker field after big events, but we have four of the top six golfers in the world (Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Sergio Garcia, and Jordan Spieth) and 14 of the top 50. It’s strange to see this many big names in the field because this is routinely voted as one of the least favorite events of the year by the players. The tournament is held at the TPC Four Seasons, which plays as one of the most difficult par 70s on tour. It measures nearly 7,200 yards and only features two par fives. When you look at the total yardage, it doesn’t seem too daunting, but four of the par fours measure over 450 yards and two of them measure over 500 yards.

The course features wide fairways, but it plays firm and fast when there isn’t rain in the forecast. The bombers have had an edge here the last two seasons, but they were both rain soaked events. Make sure to keep an eye on the weather throughout the week. If the course is expected to play softer thanks to some rain, we can give the edge to distance once again. The greens are bentgrass and are generally below-average speed on the stimpmeter. The main statistic that I am targeting this week is ball striking, but I’m looking at it through two different lenses. We have the ball striking statistic that ranks players based on their total driving and their greens in regulation. I also like looking at strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach as an alternative way to look at ball striking. Basically, we want golfers that are strong off the tee and hit greens. We’ve seen bad putters contend here on a yearly basis (oh hey, Keegan Bradley). I will also be looking at par four scoring, since the golfers only have two par fives to score on this week.

If you have any questions or want to talk some strategy for the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship, feel free to leave a comment below.

Cut Rule:Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Sergio Garcia (2016), Steven Bowditch (2015), Brendon Todd (2014), Sang-Moon Bae (2013), Jason Dufner (2012)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 4 Scoring
5) Ball Striking

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Dustin Johnson $12,500 $11,800 $20,700 1 5 0% 0% 0% 3/3 12 8 7 500 500
Sergio Garcia $11,000 $10,200 $18,100 5 12 -50% 25% 0% 1/1 1 500 500 500 500
Jordan Spieth $10,800 $10,500 $18,400 6 12 33% 0% 0% 4/4 18 30 37 68 500
Brooks Koepka $10,200 $9,500 $17,400 19 17 0% 20% 0% 2/3 2 16 109 500 500
Jason Day $10,100 $10,500 $17,400 4 17 0% -150% -25% 2/2 500 500 500 27 9
Louis Oosthuizen $9,700 $9,000 $16,500 18 28 0% 25% 0% 2/4 99 500 11 83 104
Patrick Reed $9,400 $8,800 $16,100 15 35 -29% 0% -13% 1/2 500 500 500 81 94
Tony Finau $9,200 $7,700 $16,000 69 33 13% 53% 22% 2/2 12 10 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $8,800 $8,000 $16,000 63 37 -22% 15% -22% 5/5 24 8 48 33 1
Matt Kuchar $8,700 $9,400 $15,900 20 38 -20% -100% 0% 5/5 3 39 7 33 15
Charley Hoffman $8,500 $7,900 $16,200 54 34 27% 43% -14% 4/4 12 2 500 8 41
Brandt Snedeker $8,400 $9,200 $15,800 32 39 -8% -86% 0% 1/3 84 6 94 500 500
Russell Henley $8,300 $7,500 $16,000 51 35 23% 41% -11% 1/2 99 22 500 500 500
Ryan Palmer $8,200 $7,200 $15,500 89 45 -14% 24% -14% 4/5 84 10 22 33 9
Charl Schwartzel $8,100 $7,400 $15,200 17 50 -20% 5% -6% 4/4 58 78 11 3 500
Byeong-Hun An $8,000 $7,500 $14,800 58 60 -31% -24% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.B. Holmes $7,900 $8,800 $14,900 44 53 -12% -111% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Marc Leishman $7,800 $7,300 $15,200 36 49 6% 15% 0% 3/5 99 100 3 12 3
Bud Cauley $7,800 $6,400 $15,400 133 44 22% 52% 13% 1/2 4 500 127 500 500
Kevin Tway $7,700 $6,300 $14,800 215 62 -10% 31% -5% 0/1 500 500 109 500 500
Ollie Schniederjans $7,700 $7,700 $15,000 105 57 0% -33% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Gary Woodland $7,700 $8,200 $14,400 42 70 -35% -125% 0% 5/5 12 60 7 48 24
Ryan Moore $7,600 $8,400 $15,500 35 45 35% -36% -7% 0/1 500 500 85 500 500
Graham DeLaet $7,600 $6,100 $14,700 117 64 -9% 34% -4% 4/5 84 22 7 10 41
Ian Poulter $7,600 $7,000 $14,800 80 62 0% -5% -10% 0/1 99 500 500 500 500
Jhonattan Vegas $7,600 $6,500 $12,900 62 129 -78% -58% 0% 4/4 49 69 78 500 69
Seung-Yul Noh $7,600 $6,300 $13,700 187 95 -30% 6% 0% 2/3 123 500 500 70 69
Jamie Lovemark $7,500 $6,000 $12,600 107 163 -75% -20% -9% 1/2 500 500 64 500 119
D.A. Points $7,500 $5,600 $12,500 202 171 -86% 4% -4% 3/5 66 117 153 12 19
James Hahn $7,500 $5,500 $12,600 83 148 -64% 23% -2% 3/3 46 55 5 500 500
Robert Streb $7,500 $6,000 $12,200 158 196 -121% -51% 0% 0/2 500 500 127 84 500
John Peterson $7,500 $5,300 $12,000 507 196 -121% 15% 13% 0/1 500 500 127 500 500
Sung Kang $7,400 $6,100 $14,500 85 62 27% 37% 4% 1/2 34 500 500 500 80
Robby Shelton $7,400 $4,800 $12,200 873 200 -97% 36% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Kim $7,400 $5,400 $12,800 221 146 -33% 34% -2% 1/1 34 500 500 500 500
Jason Kokrak $7,400 $5,000 $12,100 128 219 -115% 23% -6% 0/1 500 500 500 500 111
Cameron Percy $7,400 $4,900 $11,700 346 235 -136% 20% 4% 3/3 77 10 500 57 500
JT Poston $7,300 $6,400 $13,200 181 119 0% -31% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.J. Spaun $7,300 $7,000 $13,100 112 120 -3% -77% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nicholas Lindheim $7,300 $4,500 $11,200 391 313 -187% 13% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Summerhays $7,300 $6,200 $12,200 91 206 -76% -91% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Brehm $7,300 $4,800 $11,300 290 308 -179% -4% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano $7,200 $5,100 $11,600 589 250 -88% 5% 4% 1/1 500 16 500 500 500
Alex Cejka $7,200 $5,100 $11,600 195 258 -105% -4% -5% 2/3 99 500 78 500 29
Sean O’Hair $7,200 $6,300 $12,200 92 200 -51% -103% -5% 2/3 18 500 48 84 500
Spencer Levin $7,200 $5,000 $11,800 309 250 -88% 12% -4% 2/3 4 22 120 500 500
Fredrik Jacobson $7,200 $5,500 $11,300 271 288 -137% -70% 2% 2/3 34 500 94 17 500
Matt Jones $7,100 $5,600 $12,300 193 181 -19% -6% -4% 1/3 123 64 500 500 104
Danny Lee $7,100 $6,500 $13,300 125 113 29% -31% -3% 3/4 18 34 127 500 19
Smylie Kaufman $7,100 $6,200 $14,500 122 66 46% 26% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bob Estes $7,100 $4,700 $10,800 467 -175% -22% -3% 1/1 500 500 500 500 41
Michael Thompson $7,100 $5,100 $12,300 213 179 -15% 35% 0% 2/2 18 46 500 500 500
Brett Drewitt $7,100 $4,600 $10,900 601 425 -160% -7% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Boo Weekley $7,100 $5,200 $12,300 356 192 -27% 21% -11% 4/5 41 85 5 152 63
Robert Garrigus $7,100 $5,300 $12,300 223 185 -25% 18% -9% 4/5 4 78 29 142 9
Bryson DeChambeau $7,100 $6,000 $12,400 127 179 -15% -34% -4% 0/1 84 500 500 500 500
Greg Chalmers $7,100 $4,600 $10,800 295 458 -173% -12% -2% 3/5 143 46 22 101 56
Angel Cabrera $7,100 $5,100 $11,300 662 308 -121% -25% -2% 2/3 138 500 59 12 500
Ryo Ishikawa $7,100 $4,700 $11,300 136 321 -129% -2% -6% 2/2 500 500 75 10 500
Cody Gribble $7,100 $5,000 $11,600 217 267 -94% -1% -11% 1/1 500 78 500 500 500
Charlie Beljan $7,100 $4,500 $10,800 550 -196% -14% -11% 2/4 500 134 11 43 111
Max Homa $7,100 $4,500 588 696 -206% -18% 0/1 500 145 500 500 500
Brandon Hagy $7,000 $5,300 $12,900 253 131 33% 42% -2% 0/1 500 124 500 500 500
Julian Etulain $7,000 $5,300 $12,200 413 208 -10% 5% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mark Anderson $7,000 $4,700 $11,200 353 338 -76% -3% -2% 2/3 500 69 81 500 119
Tyrone Van Aswegen $7,000 $5,200 $11,600 251 258 -40% -14% -5% 2/3 63 124 16 500 500
Ryan Blaum $7,000 $5,600 $11,500 343 271 -51% -76% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chad Collins $7,000 $4,700 $10,900 319 358 -83% -6% 4% 1/3 123 55 109 500 500
Geoff Ogilvy $7,000 $5,500 $11,900 206 229 -17% -23% 0% 0/1 500 124 500 500 500
Chez Reavie $7,000 $5,600 $12,600 145 148 27% 15% -2% 2/4 18 124 500 21 119
Tom Hoge $7,000 $4,800 $11,600 463 279 -59% 2% -19% 1/2 49 100 500 500 500
Patrick Rodgers $7,000 $5,500 $12,100 170 206 -6% -12% 0% 1/2 46 100 500 500 500
Scott Piercy $7,000 $6,400 $12,400 60 183 6% -103% -11% 2/3 99 500 500 5 15
Jason Bohn $7,000 $4,700 $10,900 392 450 -103% -19% -7% 2/2 500 500 500 21 9
Steve Wheatcroft $7,000 $4,500 $10,900 483 429 -100% -1% -5% 1/3 147 73 500 500 94
Brendon Todd $7,000 $5,800 $11,100 975 388 -89% -153% -5% 2/5 143 100 1 17 119
Bobby Wyatt $7,000 $4,500 $10,800 599 483 -114% -8% -5% 0/1 99 500 500 500 500
Fabrizio Zanotti $6,900 $5,500 $13,100 82 114 55% 42% 8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Taylor $6,900 $5,700 $13,400 233 105 59% 37% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Watney $6,900 $6,800 $13,500 317 95 60% -24% 0% 1/1 500 10 500 500 500
Billy Hurley $6,900 $5,800 $13,200 115 119 53% 21% -3% 3/4 41 85 16 500 151
Keegan Bradley $6,900 $6,900 $13,900 110 89 64% -17% 0% 4/5 99 22 29 2 24
Hudson Swafford $6,900 $6,200 $13,800 77 91 63% 17% 0% 2/3 34 66 85 500 500
Brian Stuard $6,900 $5,000 $11,600 145 271 -22% -3% -13% 1/3 500 88 138 75 500
Andres Gonzales $6,900 $4,500 $11,400 283 250 -4% 35% 18% 2/4 34 139 500 142 19
John Merrick $6,900 $4,500 $11,100 961 355 -46% 9% -1% 3/3 63 16 500 500 36
Peter Malnati $6,900 $4,800 $10,800 427 571 -83% -40% -12% 0/2 147 500 151 500 500
Michael Putnam $6,800 $4,900 $10,800 450 -45% -32% 0% 2/3 500 73 45 500 111
Tag Ridings $6,800 $4,900 $11,400 566 296 -18% -7% -5% 1/2 500 500 109 57 500
Brian Gay $6,800 $5,500 $13,000 264 128 55% 33% 0% 2/4 84 500 57 101 56
Sam Saunders $6,800 $5,100 $11,600 304 221 17% 14% 13% 1/2 84 71 500 500 500
Willy Wilcox $6,800 $5,400 $11,900 358 229 16% -10% 0% 3/3 49 22 78 500 500
Hunter Mahan $6,800 $5,700 $11,200 739 346 -28% -122% -4% 1/1 500 39 500 500 500
Shawn Stefani $6,800 $5,200 $11,500 416 277 -13% -29% -4% 1/3 99 500 11 149 500
Will MacKenzie $6,800 $4,800 $11,500 466 275 -11% 4% -3% 1/1 24 500 500 500 500
Chris Stroud $6,800 $5,100 $12,100 354 219 19% 16% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Flores $6,800 $4,600 $11,100 243 338 -26% 5% 2% 4/5 63 39 59 43 111
Jonathan Randolph $6,700 $5,000 $12,600 335 138 56% 53% 4% 1/1 500 34 500 500 500
Morgan Hoffmann $6,700 $5,600 $13,300 172 118 63% 33% -9% 2/3 500 88 16 5 500
Zack Sucher $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 548 467 -35% -6% -3% 0/1 500 117 500 500 500
Billy Horschel $6,700 $6,500 $13,300 76 110 66% -27% 0% 0/1 500 500 500 500 149
Cameron Tringale $6,700 $5,600 $11,800 246 250 17% -50% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dominic Bozzelli $6,700 $5,800 $11,600 153 260 8% -91% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ken Duke $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 382 479 -37% -7% -5% 3/5 151 34 57 101 7
Kelly Kraft $6,700 $11,500 185 279 -2% -5% 1/3 49 139 500 500 149
Mark Hubbard $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 554 525 -43% -12% -9% 1/2 123 55 500 500 500
Brian Campbell $6,700 $4,500 $10,800 407 450 -31% -2% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Austin Smotherman $6,600 $4,500 $10,700 617 -35% -17% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Zac Blair $6,600 $5,700 $12,600 229 148 57% 10% -2% 1/2 84 16 500 500 500
J.J. Henry $6,600 $5,200 $11,600 402 250 25% -5% 4% 3/5 66 100 59 101 3
Xander Schauffele $6,600 $4,900 $12,500 325 168 53% 47% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Brown $6,600 $6,000 $12,300 130 175 51% -29% 4% 2/2 500 34 500 500 49
Carl Pettersson $6,600 $4,500 $10,900 803 413 -13% 2% -2% 2/4 151 55 45 500 80
Harris English $6,600 $5,900 $12,000 103 229 31% -64% -4% 3/4 49 60 94 17 500
Tim Wilkinson $6,600 $4,700 $12,300 337 175 51% 51% 4% 2/3 4 100 22 500 500
Trey Mullinax $6,600 $4,700 $11,400 368 292 5% 5% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Greg Owen $6,600 $4,600 $11,000 339 404 -12% -3% -4% 4/5 79 46 94 78 29
John Huh $6,500 $5,800 $12,500 196 165 58% -6% 0% 3/4 134 66 16 8 500
Shane Bertsch $6,500 $4,500 $10,700 1057 575 -22% -15% -1% 1/1 500 500 500 500 63
Bryce Molder $6,500 $5,400 $11,900 240 238 33% -18% -7% 3/4 24 22 48 127 500
Ben Crane $6,500 $5,400 $12,100 439 213 41% -4% -4% 3/4 24 100 37 57 500
Scott Stallings $6,500 $5,200 $11,800 280 250 31% -5% -4% 1/2 34 500 500 500 80
Bobby Gates $6,500 $4,500 $10,700 725 -26% -19% -4% 1/3 500 500 148 84 74
Ryan Armour $6,500 $4,600 $11,000 469 375 0% -1% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brad Fritsch $6,500 $4,500 $11,000 472 413 -3% 2% -5% 2/2 500 500 59 75 500
Brett Stegmaier $6,500 $4,700 $10,800 350 504 -17% -28% -8% 1/1 66 500 500 500 500
Steven Bowditch $6,500 $4,500 $10,800 713 521 -18% -11% -9% 2/5 82 1 94 84 119
Anirban Lahiri $6,400 $6,100 $12,700 86 147 65% -18% -2% 1/1 46 500 500 500 500
Seamus Power $6,400 $5,900 $11,900 322 229 42% -64% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyle Reifers $6,400 $5,400 $12,300 209 181 55% 15% -4% 3/3 10 34 500 500 56
Andrew Loupe $6,400 $4,600 $10,900 284 415 3% -6% -3% 2/3 82 46 151 500 500
Rory Sabbatini $6,400 $4,800 $11,300 505 300 18% -3% -1% 3/4 500 30 45 43 141
Tyler Aldridge $6,300 $4,600 $10,900 638 438 5% -9% -6% 0/1 123 500 500 500 500
Stuart Appleby $6,300 $4,500 $10,700 447 371 12% 6% 18% 2/2 58 500 500 57 500
Rick Lamb $6,300 $4,500 $10,800 449 483 -2% -8% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Joel Dahmen $6,300 $4,500 $10,700 562 588 -9% -16% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Steven Alker $6,300 $4,500 $10,800 610 500 -3% -10% -7% 0/1 500 100 500 500 500
Stuart Deane $6,200 $4,500 833 -10% -22% 0/2 500 500 127 500 151
Kramer Hickok $6,200 $4,500 750 -9% -20% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rod Pampling $6,200 $5,200 $11,400 147 263 33% -19% 7% 3/5 66 22 64 117 94
Chad Campbell $6,200 $4,900 $12,000 192 198 54% 34% 10% 4/5 12 117 48 71 24
Richy Werenski $6,200 $4,600 $10,900 265 363 16% 1% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Beau Hossler $6,100 $5,500 $11,700 1075 252 39% -45% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cheng-Tsung Pan $6,100 $4,700 $11,700 151 238 45% 27% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Grayson Murray $6,100 $5,200 $11,600 168 260 37% -17% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ricky Barnes $6,100 $5,100 $11,600 311 267 35% -9% -11% 4/5 24 134 48 12 49
Whee Kim $6,100 $5,400 $11,400 282 271 34% -42% 4% 2/2 49 82 500 500 500
Whee Kim $6,100 $5,400 $11,400 282 271 34% -42% 4% 2/2 500 500 500 500 500
Paul Earnest $6,000 $4,500 771 -2% -21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sebastian Munoz $6,000 $4,500 $11,200 308 28% 15% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 84 500
Matt Every $6,000 $4,500 1181 708 0% -18% 0/1 117 500 500 500 41
Whee Kim $6,100 $5,400 $11,400 282 271 34% -42% 4% 2/2 500 500 85 500 135
Whee Kim $6,100 $5,400 $11,400 282 271 34% -42% 4% 2/2 500 500 500 500 500
Paul Earnest $6,000 $4,500 771 -2% -21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sebastian Munoz $6,000 $4,500 $11,200 308 28% 15% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Every $6,000 $4,500 1181 708 0% -18% 0/1 500 500 500 500 500
Ernie Els $6,000 $5,200 $11,000 414 400 19% -56% -3% 1/2 500 500 500 500 500
Miguel Angel Carballo $6,000 $4,500 $10,800 540 538 5% -13% -10% 0/2 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2012 – 2016 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious