PGA First Look: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-09 15:00:37

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Waste Management Open Review

I was lucky enough to attend the event in person last week and I can honestly say that it was one of my favorite vacations I have ever taken. I highly recommend to anyone that is even a small golf fan. On Thursday, we walked the course with Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, and Jon Rahm. We also tried to get up close and personal (my wife anyway) with Michael Phelps, who was following the group inside the ropes. This was my first experience at a PGA Tour event and while I know that these golfers are massive celebrities, you don’t really get the magnitude until you see it in person. The crowds following the top players were huge. After Spieth’s group finished their round, we headed over to the par three 16th hole to drink with all of the crazy fans in the stands. Dan Back said that his hot take for the tournament was that “Noto would be drunk on the 16th.” I’m happy to report that I helped make that hot take come true, although I wasn’t nearly as bad as this fan struggling to keep his balance.

I headed back to the course on Friday afternoon, although this time it was only my father and I. When you first walk into the tournament, they have ladies offering up IVs in order to help cure your hangover. I was blown away that this was a real thing, but I had to get out on the course. We followed Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson for most of their back nine and my father had one of the funniest moments of the trip. As Mickelson was walking by, he put out his hand to get a high five. Mickelson went for the fist bump and we ended up with the old grabbing of the first, awkward high five. I was lucky enough to get a picture of it as it happened. We kept joking that Mickelson’s round took a turn when that strange fan caressed his fist bump attempt. Patrick Reed was nice enough to stop for a photo and made me a fan in the process. I’ve always loved Reed in the Ryder Cup, but haven’t been the biggest fan overall. He took plenty of time after his round to sign autographs for anyone that wanted one. Our day ended at the 16th (where else) and then we followed Spieth’s group through 17 and 18. This is where Spieth took himself out of contention by dunking it in the water on 18 and finishing with a double bogey.

We didn’t end up attending the tournament on Saturday. We rented a house and took turns watching my little man, who was pumped for some pool time after a long winter in Utah. We ended up buying Skybox tickets for Sunday at the par three 16th. For future reference, the price of these go way down in the days leading right up to the tournament. We basically got ours for the same price that we spent on beer and food in each of the first two days. The Skybox suites were awesome and everything was included. My baby boy had a blast and then passed out on the chairs. We watched the final groups come through and then got to see the playoff. Hideki Matsuyama outlasted Webb Simpson to win his second straight Waste Management Open. Overall, it was a tremendous experience and we met a ton of great people out there. I may end up making it a yearly tradition. I just need to find a way to talk RotoGrinders into it being a “work trip.”

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview

Before we get into the course preview, make sure to check out the PGA Forum each week.

After a one week break in Arizona, the PGA Tour heads back to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (that’s a mouthful). If you didn’t like the three-course rotation from a couple of weeks ago, you probably aren’t going to be happy this week. This is another event where each player spends a day on one of the three courses, before a cut is made after Saturday’s round. We have a different cut rule in effect though, as only the top 60 and ties will move on to play on Sunday. With a full field of 156 golfers, we could see fewer than 40% of golfers make the cut. This brings up some intriguing strategy discussions when it comes to lineup building. While each golfer is guaranteed to play three rounds, we will likely see very few lineups with 6-of-6 through the cut.

As the name suggests, this is a Pro-Am event, which means the celebrities will be out in full force trying to get some television time. This is typically one of the slowest-paced golf tournaments of the year and one of the hardest to watch. Half the broadcast is full of celebrities like Chris Berman and Bill Murray trying to hack their way around the course. The Pro-Am does come into play when we are talking about the rough. The PGA Tour can’t have these amateurs shooting 20 on a hole, so the rough on each course is a bit easier than we typically see on tour. With that said, all three courses are short, so there hasn’t really been an advantage for bombers or accuracy types here over the years. Here is a quick breakdown of each course in rotation:

Pebble Beach: This is one of the most iconic courses on the PGA Tour. It has hosted five U.S. Opens and one PGA Championship over the years. It is the shortest Par 72 in rotation, measuring only 6,816 yards. That is a far cry from the Torrey Pines South Course that measured over 7,500 yards a couple of weeks ago. The fairways are pretty easy to hit and the greens are tiny. In order to succeed here, you have to be dialed in with your approach shots. Pebble Beach will host the final round on Sunday.

Spyglass Hill: For those of you that love ShotTracker as much as I do, I have some bad news for you. Pebble Beach is the only course this week that has the ShotLink data. This is generally the same difficulty as Pebble Beach, although it has played a bit tougher a few years. It is another short Par 72 that measures 6,953 yards. This course has tree-lined fairways, which makes accuracy off the tee a little more important.

Monterey Peninsula: This is the only Par 71 in rotation, although it still features four par fives. It is the easiest course of the three. You really want your golfers to cash in when they play this course. If they post a bad score here, it will be tough to make up those strokes on the other two courses. The greens here are about twice the size of Pebble Beach and there isn’t a ton of trouble off the tee.

I’ve seen comments on Twitter that it rained here most of last week and it could be rainy again this week. The courses are expected to be a little sloppy and there will likely be very little run on drives. Typically, when we have rain-soaked events, I like to give an edge to the bombers, but I’m more focused on approach shots. These are all short courses and with the rough not being all that penal, the shots into the green will be more crucial than the ones off the tee. We always like to target birdie makers and I like to factor in par five scoring anytime we are playing a Par 72 course. I am also factoring in putting this week, as we have seen good putters win this event in the past. And finally, course history and recent form should come into play when building your lineups.

Cut Rule:Top 60 and ties will move on after the first three rounds.

Recent Winners of this Event:Vaughn Taylor (2016), Brandt Snedeker (2015), Jimmy Walker (2014), Brandt Snedeker (2013), Phil Mickelson (2012)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Strokes Gained Approach
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting
6) Bogey Avoidance

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend