PGA First Look: BMW Championship
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Event Preview
After an entire week without golf, I’ve come to realize one thing. My life just isn’t the same without it. Dollar for dollar, it provides the best sweat of any DFS sport. Unfortunately, we are nearing the end of the regular season, as the BMW Championship is the third leg of the four-event FedEx Cup Playoffs. There are only 70 golfers in the field this week and we do not have a cut. Only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings will move on to the finale at East Lake. There is a lot on the line, as making it to the Tour Championship comes with a number of benefits. In addition to playing for the $10 million grand prize, golfers automatically qualify for next year’s Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, and WGC-Mexico. The way the numbers break down, anyone in the top 20 should be safe to make it to East Lake, but anyone ranked 21st to 30th in the standings is in danger of getting passed if they play poorly this week.
This year’s BMW Championship will be held at Conway Farms Golf Club just outside of Chicago. This is not a regular stop for this event, but the tournament was held here in 2013 and 2015. It’s worth noting that both events here were played in bad weather. Zach Johnson battled the cold, wind, and rain to take home the crown in 2013 and Jason Day took advantage of a very soft course in 2015, shooting 22-under par. Looking strictly at past results doesn’t really help us narrow the player pool down, as accuracy won out in 2013 and distance won out in 2015. It’s still early in the week, but it looks like we could have some perfect conditions. There hasn’t been a lot of rain in the area recently, so we can expect the course to play a little firmer than it did in 2013 and 2015.
As for the course itself, Conway Farms is a Par 71 that measures 7,209 yards. The course hasn’t changed much since the last visit, but they did add 59 yards to the course. Overall, the length doesn’t seem daunting, but all three of the par fives measure over 580 yards. The course features wide (and easy to hit fairways), plenty of bunkers, tall fescue rough, and small Bentgrass greens. Judging by what players have said previously, an emphasis should be placed on the second shot, as most golfers will be playing their approaches from the fairway. This is a course that yields birdies to players that are locked in and yields plenty of bogeys to players that aren’t. There will be plenty of wedges this week, so proximity from closer distances might be something to consider.
With this being a second shot course, my main statistic this week is strokes gained on approaches. With this being a no-cut event, I am placing an even bigger emphasis on birdie-making. There isn’t a big difference in finishing points once we get outside of the top ten, so without a cut, it will all come down to birdie making. This gives golfers like Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka a big edge over the traditional par makers like Bill Haas. I’m going to weight par five scoring, especially from 550-600 yards and strokes gained putting on Bentgrass greens.
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Cut Rule:No cut this week.
Recent Winners of this Event:Dustin Johnson (2016), Jason Day (2015 – at this course), Billy Horschel (2014), Zach Johnson (2013 – at this course), Rory McIlroy (2012)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Birdie or Better Percentage
3) Par 5 Scoring (Emphasis on efficiency from 550-600 yards)
4) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bentgrass)
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2015 & 2013)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds | FD Odds | FDRFT Odds | 2015 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | $11,800 | $10,200 | $19,600 | 2 | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13 | 16 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,500 | $10,100 | $19,300 | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7 | 62 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,700 | $9,200 | $17,900 | 10 | 13 | -33% | 0% | 20% | 4 | 39 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,500 | $9,200 | $18,000 | 5 | 13 | -25% | -25% | -25% | 500 | 500 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,300 | $9,700 | $18,200 | 4 | 11 | 40% | 0% | 0% | 13 | 500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,900 | $9,100 | $17,600 | 3 | 14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7 | 500 |
| Jason Day | $9,600 | $9,100 | $17,200 | 9 | 16 | 0% | -17% | 0% | 1 | 4 |
| Rory McIlroy | $9,400 | $8,700 | $16,500 | 6 | 22 | -13% | 0% | 0% | 4 | 59 |
| Paul Casey | $9,200 | $9,000 | $17,000 | 14 | 19 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 23 | 500 |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,100 | $8,600 | $16,300 | 11 | 27 | -10% | -10% | 0% | 49 | 500 |
| Henrik Stenson | $8,900 | $8,500 | $16,400 | 7 | 23 | 9% | 9% | 0% | 10 | 33 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $8,800 | $7,800 | $15,300 | 21 | 40 | -33% | -7% | 0% | 19 | 500 |
| Sergio Garcia | $8,700 | $8,300 | $14,900 | 8 | 47 | -31% | -31% | 0% | 39 | 18 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,600 | $6,700 | $14,700 | 87 | 50 | -29% | 22% | 0% | 500 | 500 |
| Justin Rose | $8,500 | $7,700 | $16,000 | 15 | 30 | 13% | 19% | 0% | 13 | 33 |
| Kevin Chappell | $8,400 | $6,400 | $14,500 | 27 | 62 | -25% | 23% | -5% | 23 | 62 |
| Zach Johnson | $8,300 | $6,400 | $13,900 | 40 | 73 | -47% | 4% | 0% | 13 | 1 |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,200 | $8,200 | $15,800 | 13 | 35 | 22% | 0% | 0% | 41 | 24 |
| Ian Poulter | $8,100 | $6,000 | $12,700 | 59 | 120 | -95% | -6% | 0% | 53 | 44 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,000 | $8,400 | $16,200 | 19 | 28 | 40% | 0% | 0% | 28 | 59 |
| Kevin Na | $7,900 | $6,100 | $14,300 | 64 | 67 | -5% | 33% | -5% | 10 | 500 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,800 | $7,400 | $13,200 | 32 | 99 | -36% | -67% | 0% | 500 | 54 |
| Tony Finau | $7,800 | $7,500 | $13,300 | 62 | 100 | -41% | -82% | -11% | 47 | 500 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,700 | $7,100 | $15,500 | 23 | 39 | 38% | 29% | 0% | 500 | 39 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,700 | $6,500 | $14,100 | 41 | 69 | 4% | 8% | 0% | 64 | 24 |
| Charley Hoffman | $7,600 | $6,600 | $14,000 | 22 | 72 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 53 | 68 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,600 | $6,400 | $13,100 | 26 | 95 | -8% | -8% | 15% | 500 | 8 |
| Russell Henley | $7,600 | $5,800 | $13,200 | 51 | 104 | -27% | 13% | -10% | 49 | 39 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,600 | $5,000 | $12,500 | 54 | 146 | -65% | 27% | -8% | 500 | 500 |
| Pat Perez | $7,600 | $5,200 | $13,000 | 35 | 103 | -23% | 41% | 6% | 45 | 500 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,500 | $5,900 | $12,200 | 112 | 155 | -55% | -33% | -2% | 500 | 500 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,500 | $5,500 | $11,900 | 58 | 195 | -65% | -16% | 4% | 13 | 61 |
| Bud Cauley | $7,500 | $5,700 | $11,800 | 105 | 211 | -74% | -32% | 2% | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Berger | $7,500 | $7,300 | $14,400 | 24 | 62 | 39% | 0% | 5% | 2 | 500 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $7,500 | $5,900 | $12,400 | 100 | 151 | -45% | -25% | -7% | 500 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,500 | $5,600 | $11,700 | 36 | 212 | -77% | -31% | 4% | 500 | 500 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,400 | $5,100 | $11,800 | 148 | 212 | -49% | 4% | 0% | 500 | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,400 | $6,300 | $13,300 | 17 | 91 | 27% | 7% | 4% | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,400 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 44 | 150 | -19% | -38% | 2% | 28 | 11 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,400 | $5,500 | $12,900 | 57 | 118 | 5% | 20% | 0% | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Tway | $7,400 | $4,700 | $11,600 | 169 | 252 | -62% | 8% | -2% | 500 | 500 |
| Bill Haas | $7,400 | $6,300 | $12,600 | 39 | 119 | 3% | -24% | 8% | 19 | 28 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,300 | $5,400 | $12,200 | 82 | 166 | -14% | 0% | -4% | 500 | 500 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,300 | $5,800 | $13,200 | 94 | 108 | 21% | 11% | -13% | 28 | 16 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,300 | $5,500 | $12,700 | 37 | 121 | 12% | 14% | -3% | 500 | 500 |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,300 | $7,200 | $14,200 | 29 | 65 | 51% | -5% | 5% | 32 | 33 |
| James Hahn | $7,300 | $4,900 | $11,900 | 66 | 226 | -33% | 10% | -8% | 32 | 500 |
| Danny Lee | $7,200 | $5,100 | $11,000 | 93 | 276 | -40% | -18% | 4% | 47 | 500 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,200 | $5,500 | $12,400 | 102 | 154 | 2% | -7% | -12% | 500 | 500 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,200 | $5,000 | $11,200 | 46 | 290 | -46% | -19% | -8% | 500 | 500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $7,200 | $5,200 | $12,100 | 90 | 205 | -10% | 2% | -8% | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,200 | $6,900 | $13,400 | 25 | 95 | 40% | -32% | -7% | 41 | 500 |
| Sung Kang | $7,100 | $4,600 | $11,400 | 89 | 255 | -15% | 9% | 3% | 500 | 500 |
| Charles Howell | $7,100 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 61 | 276 | -26% | -24% | -3% | 500 | 39 |
| Gary Woodland | $7,100 | $6,100 | $13,900 | 42 | 83 | 51% | 21% | -4% | 60 | 18 |
| Robert Streb | $7,100 | $5,000 | $12,000 | 117 | 202 | 2% | 12% | -2% | 23 | 500 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,100 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 18 | 140 | 25% | -38% | 0% | 500 | 500 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,100 | $5,500 | $12,300 | 45 | 141 | 21% | 5% | 7% | 500 | 500 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,000 | $4,900 | $12,100 | 80 | 187 | 15% | 21% | -2% | 500 | 500 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,000 | $4,500 | $11,500 | 76 | 257 | -5% | 10% | -2% | 53 | 500 |
| Grayson Murray | $7,000 | $5,300 | $12,000 | 88 | 154 | 22% | 10% | 10% | 500 | 500 |
| Scott Brown | $7,000 | $5,400 | $11,600 | 125 | 267 | -7% | -29% | -7% | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $7,000 | $5,600 | $12,400 | 28 | 140 | 31% | 2% | 2% | 53 | 500 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,000 | $4,500 | $11,400 | 164 | 271 | -8% | 7% | -2% | 500 | 500 |
| Luke List | $6,900 | $4,700 | $11,200 | 147 | 271 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 500 | 500 |
| Xander Schauffele | $6,900 | $5,800 | $12,800 | 68 | 124 | 40% | -3% | -8% | 500 | 500 |
| Martin Laird | $6,900 | $5,300 | $11,500 | 92 | 245 | 9% | -16% | 3% | 500 | 500 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,900 | $4,600 | $11,100 | 75 | 283 | -6% | -3% | 0% | 500 | 500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,900 | $5,000 | $11,200 | 108 | 273 | -2% | -12% | -2% | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Horschel | $6,900 | $5,300 | $11,700 | 49 | 236 | 11% | -14% | -2% | 32 | 18 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2012 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |