PGA First Look: Genesis Open
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Course Preview
Before we get into this week’s course, let’s quick recap the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth basically won the event wire-to-wire, although he was technically a stroke back after Thursday’s round. It felt good to get the Spieth win out of the way early, as I have been recommending him in the expert picks every week. His ball striking has improved drastically and the putter was the only thing holding him back from winning. It made sense that as soon as he had a good putting week, he would run away from the field. When you are near the top of the field in strokes gained tee to green and can putt like Spieth, others are going to have a hard time catching you. We also saw strong performances from Jason Day and Dustin Johnson, who are both in the field this week at the Genesis Open. Phil Mickelson made another cut, but can’t seem to put together a back nine for the life of him. After getting off to a quick start on Sunday, he shot eight over on the back nine and dropped way down the leaderboard.
The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Genesis Open (formerly known as the Northern Trust Open). This has the best field so far this season and it also represents the toughest test of golf so far. This is not a birdie-fest where we are going to see scores that are 20-under par. The winning score here is typically between 10 and 12-under, while the cut line hovers around +1 or +2. If you weren’t a fan of the three-course rotation at Pebble, you will be happy to hear that all four rounds this week are played at Riviera Country Club. It is a Par 71 that measures 7,338 yards. Not only does it measure around 400 yards longer than the three courses a week ago, but it can play even longer with some of the uphill shots the golfers have to hit. These are some of the most difficult fairways to hit on tour and it’s generally more important to be on the right side of the hole than it is in the short grass. The rough isn’t very penal, which gives a big advantage to the bombers. The greens have Poa Annua grass and are typically firm and fast. With a lot of long iron shots (and many out of the rough), golfers will have a tough time stopping their golf balls on approaches.
As for the type of golfer that we are looking for, it’s basically the same as most weeks, except we are adding driving distance. We always love to target players that have a good tee to green game and we know that DraftKings’ scoring rewards players that make birdies and eagles. There are three par fives on the scorecard this week and history has shown us that you must score on these holes to be in contention. I am also giving small weights to strokes gained putting and bogey avoidance. Current form is always important, but experience is typically a big advantage at this course. There are a lot of tricky pin locations and golfers will need to know which angles give them the best chance of attacking the pins. The weather looks near perfect on Thursday, but it could be windy and rainy on Friday. Make sure to check the weather before lineups lock to see if the morning or afternoon wave will have an advantage on Friday.
Cut Rule:Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds.
Recent Winners of this Event:Bubba Watson (2016), James Hahn (2015), Bubba Watson (2014), John Merrick (2013), Bill Haas (2012)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Driving Distance
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting
6) Bogey Avoidance
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)
| Golfer | Salary | OWGR | Odds to Win | + / – % Diff. | Cuts | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | $12,600 | 6 | 8 | 0% | 2/4 | 119 | 4 | 12 | 500 | 83 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,500 | 5 | 10 | -50% | 3/3 | 11 | 4 | 23 | 500 | 500 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,400 | 4 | 9 | 33% | 4/5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 4 |
| Adam Scott | $10,300 | 7 | 21 | -25% | 3/3 | 2 | 500 | 500 | 10 | 17 |
| Jason Day | $10,000 | 1 | 14 | 20% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 62 |
| Justin Thomas | $9,600 | 8 | 23 | 0% | 2/2 | 54 | 41 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,300 | 9 | 24 | 0% | 3/4 | 108 | 4 | 500 | 13 | 4 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,800 | 10 | 41 | -50% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 90 | 500 |
| Paul Casey | $8,600 | 16 | 45 | -56% | 2/2 | 39 | 2 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jimmy Walker | $8,500 | 23 | 62 | -110% | 4/5 | 77 | 41 | 20 | 16 | 4 |
| Justin Rose | $8,400 | 12 | 25 | 27% | 3/3 | 16 | 500 | 45 | 500 | 13 |
| Bubba Watson | $8,300 | 13 | 33 | 17% | 4/5 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 114 | 13 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $8,200 | 40 | 57 | -38% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,100 | 26 | 63 | -64% | 4/4 | 45 | 41 | 5 | 3 | 500 |
| Matt Kuchar | $8,000 | 21 | 56 | -7% | 3/4 | 8 | 500 | 131 | 38 | 24 |
| Bill Haas | $8,000 | 43 | 57 | -13% | 3/5 | 77 | 122 | 23 | 3 | 1 |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,900 | 22 | 38 | 35% | 2/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 21 | 2 |
| Shane Lowry | $7,900 | 53 | 75 | -71% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,800 | 31 | 80 | -63% | 2/3 | 52 | 111 | 40 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Kokrak | $7,800 | 104 | 92 | -84% | 4/5 | 2 | 41 | 101 | 79 | 34 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $7,700 | 85 | 119 | -110% | 1/1 | 39 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,700 | 127 | 135 | -129% | 0/1 | 108 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,700 | 179 | 136 | -133% | 4/5 | 92 | 8 | 70 | 21 | 44 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,600 | 27 | 33 | 63% | 2/2 | 500 | 74 | 500 | 500 | 17 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,600 | 62 | 65 | 0% | 4/5 | 5 | 119 | 59 | 61 | 17 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,600 | 118 | 128 | -96% | 1/2 | 7 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 137 |
| Ricky Barnes | $7,600 | 240 | 314 | -346% | 3/5 | 26 | 49 | 90 | 114 | 62 |
| Charles Howell | $7,500 | 65 | 62 | 25% | 2/5 | 75 | 61 | 101 | 80 | 115 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,500 | 102 | 73 | 0% | 4/5 | 77 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 2 |
| Martin Laird | $7,500 | 115 | 86 | -18% | 2/4 | 11 | 500 | 65 | 90 | 96 |
| Graeme McDowell | $7,400 | 87 | 125 | -45% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 80 | 500 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | $7,400 | 384 | 144 | -65% | 3/3 | 20 | 22 | 500 | 16 | 500 |
| Ryan Palmer | $7,400 | 86 | 160 | -74% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 114 | 24 |
| Rob Oppenheim | $7,400 | 449 | 194 | -119% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patton Kizzire | $7,400 | 108 | 224 | -152% | 1/1 | 52 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Moore | $7,300 | 30 | 58 | 47% | 4/5 | 10 | 22 | 90 | 27 | 17 |
| Branden Grace | $7,300 | 17 | 67 | 31% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,300 | 119 | 169 | -67% | 1/1 | 63 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Nick Watney | $7,300 | 560 | 171 | -72% | 2/2 | 500 | 22 | 500 | 500 | 34 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | $7,300 | 109 | 233 | -125% | 2/4 | 500 | 103 | 101 | 61 | 72 |
| Danny Lee | $7,200 | 82 | 221 | -88% | 1/3 | 77 | 69 | 500 | 500 | 108 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,200 | 59 | 263 | -115% | 0/1 | 92 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hunter Mahan | $7,200 | 484 | 292 | -137% | 4/5 | 77 | 20 | 52 | 8 | 24 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $7,200 | 359 | 325 | -163% | 2/3 | 68 | 22 | 101 | 500 | 500 |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,200 | 138 | 353 | -176% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brooks Koepka | $7,100 | 20 | 43 | 72% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,100 | 32 | 47 | 67% | 4/5 | 11 | 22 | 52 | 90 | 8 |
| Brendan Steele | $7,100 | 54 | 59 | 57% | 5/5 | 39 | 14 | 10 | 46 | 69 |
| Kevin Na | $7,100 | 51 | 105 | 13% | 2/5 | 126 | 61 | 78 | 80 | 76 |
| Harold Varner | $7,100 | 121 | 180 | -41% | 2/2 | 26 | 500 | 70 | 500 | 500 |
| Grayson Murray | $7,100 | 141 | 183 | -46% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| John Merrick | $7,100 | 776 | 425 | -159% | 1/5 | 119 | 111 | 90 | 1 | 96 |
| Brett Stegmaier | $7,100 | 290 | 508 | -176% | 0/1 | 99 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Pat Perez | $7,000 | 73 | 71 | 52% | 4/5 | 119 | 41 | 75 | 51 | 13 |
| Webb Simpson | $7,000 | 56 | 85 | 41% | 2/3 | 500 | 87 | 70 | 6 | 500 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,000 | 96 | 143 | 7% | 1/2 | 20 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 125 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,000 | 70 | 163 | -2% | 2/3 | 500 | 75 | 40 | 500 | 131 |
| John Senden | $7,000 | 163 | 271 | -72% | 2/5 | 99 | 76 | 18 | 90 | 44 |
| Shawn Stefani | $7,000 | 321 | 278 | -74% | 1/2 | 92 | 56 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ben Crane | $7,000 | 399 | 369 | -113% | 2/3 | 59 | 500 | 69 | 132 | 500 |
| Greg Chalmers | $7,000 | 285 | 517 | -137% | 1/3 | 500 | 500 | 121 | 10 | 108 |
| Chad Collins | $7,000 | 429 | 642 | -143% | 1/2 | 66 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 83 |
| Michael Block | $7,000 | 1139 | -157% | 1/2 | 500 | 129 | 500 | 76 | 500 | |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $6,900 | 159 | 104 | 39% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Horschel | $6,900 | 79 | 105 | 38% | 1/1 | 54 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $6,900 | 99 | 116 | 33% | 3/4 | 72 | 111 | 3 | 51 | 500 |
| Kelly Kraft | $6,900 | 391 | 147 | 19% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Stewart Cink | $6,900 | 236 | 165 | 13% | 3/4 | 45 | 500 | 101 | 27 | 67 |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,900 | 199 | 197 | -9% | 2/2 | 54 | 61 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $6,900 | 55 | 225 | -23% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Whee Kim | $6,900 | 261 | 293 | -53% | 0/1 | 92 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Vijay Singh | $6,900 | 210 | 431 | -88% | 5/5 | 45 | 12 | 45 | 51 | 33 |
| Jinho Choi | $6,900 | 276 | 505 | -97% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Peter Malnati | $6,900 | 336 | 608 | -103% | 0/1 | 77 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tony Finau | $6,800 | 75 | 87 | 55% | 1/2 | 126 | 56 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Harris English | $6,800 | 81 | 96 | 51% | 4/4 | 39 | 30 | 10 | 51 | 500 |
| Sung Kang | $6,800 | 194 | 167 | 23% | 2/2 | 8 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 72 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,800 | 116 | 172 | 16% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $6,800 | 218 | 203 | 3% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 121 | 500 | 24 |
| Robert Streb | $6,800 | 106 | 208 | 1% | 0/3 | 77 | 87 | 500 | 80 | 500 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,800 | 78 | 211 | 0% | 2/4 | 77 | 30 | 29 | 123 | 500 |
| Cody Gribble | $6,800 | 193 | 244 | -12% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,800 | 93 | 256 | -13% | 1/2 | 45 | 111 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Scott Brown | $6,800 | 226 | 263 | -17% | 2/3 | 39 | 134 | 45 | 500 | 500 |
| David Hearn | $6,800 | 180 | 328 | -47% | 1/5 | 108 | 111 | 90 | 123 | 44 |
| Steven Bowditch | $6,800 | 329 | 953 | -81% | 0/3 | 139 | 103 | 114 | 500 | 500 |
| Jim Furyk | $6,700 | 41 | 71 | 69% | 4/4 | 500 | 14 | 23 | 13 | 11 |
| Kevin Chappell | $6,700 | 35 | 80 | 66% | 3/5 | 26 | 136 | 23 | 90 | 24 |
| Thomas Pieters | $6,700 | 50 | 97 | 56% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Percy | $6,700 | 428 | 256 | 1% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,700 | 148 | 269 | -6% | 1/2 | 500 | 39 | 101 | 500 | 500 |
| Zac Blair | $6,700 | 282 | 289 | -9% | 0/2 | 133 | 87 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,700 | 149 | 306 | -17% | 2/3 | 119 | 22 | 500 | 500 | 59 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,700 | 233 | 311 | -21% | 1/1 | 20 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| John Huh | $6,700 | 219 | 311 | -21% | 1/4 | 138 | 129 | 35 | 101 | 500 |
| Johnson Wagner | $6,700 | 202 | 364 | -31% | 2/4 | 99 | 500 | 131 | 51 | 24 |
| J.J. Henry | $6,700 | 543 | 644 | -53% | 3/4 | 66 | 500 | 40 | 61 | 83 |
| Kevin Hall | $6,700 | 1014 | -59% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,600 | 105 | 96 | 64% | 2/2 | 16 | 22 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hudson Swafford | $6,600 | 92 | 111 | 58% | 0/3 | 99 | 87 | 78 | 500 | 500 |
| James Hahn | $6,600 | 71 | 149 | 46% | 3/4 | 119 | 1 | 29 | 61 | 500 |
| Kevin Streelman | $6,600 | 132 | 167 | 41% | 3/4 | 500 | 103 | 35 | 27 | 56 |
| Luke Donald | $6,600 | 97 | 169 | 38% | 3/4 | 45 | 76 | 500 | 16 | 56 |
| Jim Herman | $6,600 | 88 | 199 | 27% | 0/1 | 500 | 87 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Nick Taylor | $6,600 | 406 | 217 | 23% | 1/2 | 26 | 111 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Tringale | $6,600 | 239 | 303 | -2% | 5/5 | 68 | 47 | 12 | 21 | 24 |
| Blayne Barber | $6,600 | 225 | 331 | -12% | 2/3 | 108 | 12 | 500 | 42 | 500 |
| Charlie Beljan | $6,600 | 1083 | 486 | -25% | 3/4 | 108 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 500 |
| Carl Pettersson | $6,600 | 662 | 531 | -30% | 3/4 | 59 | 67 | 114 | 500 | 34 |
| Matt Every | $6,600 | 660 | 675 | -35% | 3/4 | 99 | 49 | 6 | 68 | 500 |
| Scott Piercy | $6,500 | 36 | 126 | 59% | 2/4 | 500 | 142 | 77 | 61 | 77 |
| Charley Hoffman | $6,500 | 72 | 166 | 49% | 4/5 | 63 | 30 | 12 | 68 | 115 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,500 | 139 | 183 | 41% | 3/5 | 26 | 87 | 18 | 114 | 11 |
| Michael Kim | $6,500 | 234 | 196 | 38% | 0/1 | 139 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $6,500 | 197 | 197 | 37% | 2/4 | 500 | 49 | 29 | 101 | 83 |
| Chad Campbell | $6,500 | 192 | 233 | 27% | 1/4 | 77 | 49 | 500 | 101 | 125 |
| Bud Cauley | $6,500 | 188 | 233 | 25% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 123 | 52 |
| Ernie Els | $6,500 | 367 | 268 | 18% | 4/5 | 26 | 134 | 35 | 13 | 59 |
| Bryce Molder | $6,500 | 203 | 294 | 11% | 4/5 | 77 | 41 | 6 | 21 | 17 |
| Troy Merritt | $6,500 | 178 | 306 | 8% | 1/2 | 11 | 87 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Hurley | $6,500 | 131 | 342 | -1% | 1/3 | 500 | 103 | 52 | 500 | 96 |
| Ryan Blaum | $6,500 | 363 | 384 | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Steve Marino | $6,500 | 393 | 472 | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sam Saunders | $6,500 | 483 | -11% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | |
| Andrew Loupe | $6,500 | 260 | 772 | -22% | 1/1 | 63 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Luke List | $6,400 | 183 | 172 | 50% | 1/1 | 20 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| K.J. Choi | $6,400 | 189 | 231 | 37% | 5/5 | 5 | 30 | 12 | 33 | 24 |
| Camilo Villegas | $6,400 | 284 | 257 | 31% | 2/3 | 37 | 30 | 500 | 500 | 96 |
| Padraig Harrington | $6,400 | 146 | 267 | 29% | 3/5 | 45 | 56 | 90 | 114 | 44 |
| Ben Martin | $6,400 | 185 | 289 | 25% | 1/2 | 16 | 124 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,400 | 160 | 300 | 21% | 2/2 | 26 | 8 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $6,400 | 136 | 310 | 17% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jon Curran | $6,400 | 144 | 325 | 14% | 1/2 | 26 | 76 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alex Cejka | $6,400 | 182 | 389 | 7% | 1/1 | 500 | 67 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Spencer Levin | $6,400 | 267 | 408 | 6% | 3/4 | 37 | 56 | 101 | 500 | 52 |
| Mark Hubbard | $6,400 | 468 | 475 | 3% | 1/1 | 54 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ken Duke | $6,400 | 339 | 486 | 2% | 3/5 | 108 | 47 | 52 | 101 | 59 |
| Bob Estes | $6,400 | 642 | -4% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 27 | 125 | |
| Rich Berberian | $6,400 | 969 | -9% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| + / – % Diff. | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2012 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |