PGA First Look: Greenbrier Classic

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-05 12:25:00

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

Francesco Molinari lapped the field at the Quicken Loans National to walk away with his first career win on the PGA Tour. If you look at his finishes worldwide, he now has two wins and a second in his last four events. Keep an eye on him as we head into the Open Championship. A few other notes from last week’s tournament — Tiger Woods is inching closer to getting back in the winner’s circle. He needs to get off to better starts on Thursday and avoid the late lapses on the back nine on the weekend. Despite a third-round 74, Joaquin Niemann still managed to finish in a tie for 17th. The talented young phenom is now 4-for-8 in cuts made this season with four top 20 finishes.

The PGA Tour now heads to West Viriginia for the Greenbrier Classic. This isn’t a great field by any means, but there are some headliners — Tony Finau, Bubba Watson, and Phil Mickelson. Overall, only eight of the top 50 golfers in the world will compete this week, but as I always say, we can’t complain when we have fantasy golf available to play. If you are looking at course history, you will notice that the event was cancelled here in 2016 due to the massive floods in the area. It took some major work to restore The Old White TPC. They had to re-seed the entire course and re-contour each of the greens. They also rebuilt every single bunker on the property.

The course is still a Par 70 that only features two par fives (both on the back nine), but it now measures 7,286 yards. While this is certainly one of the longer Par 70 tracks that the golfers see each year, it doesn’t necessary play like a bomber’s course. The elevation will lead to longer drives and there are eight par fours that measure less than 450 yards. At TPC Potomac last week, it was all about hitting fairways, but this week’s course plays much easier off the tee. The driving accuracy here is close to 70% each year, which is significantly higher than the PGA Tour average. With it being a little more open off the tee, we will see more drivers hit than we have over the last few events. This places a big emphasis on off the tee game, which is my heaviest weighted statistic of the week.

The winning score here is typically in the mid-teens and with very little wind in the forecast, I expect a similar result this season. While I’m definitely keying on on off the tee statistics, any type of player can compete here. We’ve seen bombers, good iron players, and good putters succeed at this event, which brings everyone into play. However, with easy to hit fairways and easy to hit greens, this event can turn into a putting contest. While it is the most volatile statistic week to week, I will be including it in my model (which can be seen every Wednesday). For those of you that like to break down putting splits by surface, the greens at The Old White TPC are bentgrass.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Xander Schauffele (2017), Danny Lee (2015), Angel Cabrera (2014), Jonas Blixt (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 4 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bentgrass)

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds	Cuts	2017	2015	2014	2013
Tony Finau	$11,500	$12,000	$17,300	31	13	0%	50%	0%	2/2	7	13	500	500
Phil Mickelson	$11,200	$12,400	$16,800	20	16	-50%	-200%	0%	1/2	20	500	500	110
Bubba Watson	$11,000	$11,800	$17,000	12	15	33%	33%	0%	4/4	70	13	16	30
Webb Simpson	$10,700	$11,500	$16,700	21	16	0%	20%	0%	3/4	14	128	3	41
Russell Henley	$10,400	$10,500	$16,400	46	19	0%	50%	0%	3/3	5	5	500	30
Xander Schauffele	$10,200	$10,200	$16,100	24	21	0%	54%	0%	1/1	1	500	500	500
Joaquin Niemann	$9,700	$10,400	$15,800	203	25	0%	36%	0%	1/1	29	500	500	500
Brian Harman	$9,500	$11,100	$15,600	26	29	-13%	-29%	0%	1/2	500	500	109	65
Charles Howell	$9,300	$11,600	$15,600	55	30	-22%	-175%	-22%	2/4	45	92	52	94
Jimmy Walker	$9,100	$11,300	$15,700	62	29	20%	-33%	0%	2/3	18	500	128	2
J.B. Holmes	$9,000	$10,600	$15,600	81	29	9%	-11%	-11%	3/3	9	22	23	500
Ryan Moore	$8,900	$9,700	$15,300	71	32	0%	25%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Danny Lee	$8,800	$8,500	$14,900	141	43	-8%	63%	0%	3/3	9	1	16	500
Kevin Na	$8,700	$9,500	$15,000	65	41	7%	28%	0%	2/2	500	32	52	500
Kevin Streelman	$8,600	$9,000	$14,700	123	47	-7%	41%	-7%	2/2	29	77	500	500
Keegan Bradley	$8,500	$9,800	$14,500	77	48	-6%	-13%	0%	3/3	50	29	4	500
Brandt Snedeker	$8,400	$10,900	$14,700	95	46	12%	-88%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Anirban Lahiri	$8,300	$8,600	$14,300	99	56	-11%	43%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jamie Lovemark	$8,200	$9,400	$14,300	94	53	0%	5%	0%	2/2	3	500	85	500
Brian Gay	$8,100	$9,600	$14,400	119	53	10%	-6%	0%	1/2	72	500	500	94
Kevin Kisner	$8,000	$9,200	$14,300	33	58	0%	13%	-11%	1/3	103	2	128	500
Ryan Blaum	$7,900	$8,500	$14,100	231	63	-9%	37%	-9%	1/2	7	500	500	82
Aaron Wise	$7,900	$8,600	$14,100	74	62	-5%	34%	-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Patrick Rodgers	$7,800	$9,300	$14,100	128	63	-4%	-14%	-14%	3/3	70	60	45	500
Andrew Putnam	$7,800	$10,000	$14,100	146	60	8%	-57%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ollie Schniederjans	$7,700	$9,300	$13,700	106	76	-27%	-50%	-3%	0/1	75	500	500	500
Kevin Chappell	$7,700	$10,300	$13,800	58	71	-8%	-133%	3%	3/3	500	37	16	41
Ryan Armour	$7,700	$8,700	$13,900	105	70	-4%	18%	-4%	1/2	75	22	500	500
Ted Potter	$7,600	$8,100	$13,600	89	77	-17%	35%	-3%	3/3	37	500	26	6
Austin Cook	$7,600	$9,100	$13,800	109	74	-10%	-23%	-10%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Scott Piercy	$7,600	$9,400	$13,600	189	74	-7%	-55%	6%	1/2	500	29	500	94
Joel Dahmen	$7,500	$8,400	$12,600	353	120	-47%	-7%	0%	0/1	88	500	500	500
Matt Jones	$7,500	$8,200	$12,700	288	112	-44%	8%	-2%	2/2	64	500	500	2
Wesley Bryan	$7,500	$8,500	$12,900	129	102	-31%	-11%	-17%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Keith Mitchell	$7,500	$8,900	$12,900	145	96	-16%	-28%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Richy Werenski	$7,400	$8,500	$12,200	224	146	-61%	-53%	-9%	0/1	118	500	500	500
Seamus Power	$7,400	$8,100	$12,700	302	111	-25%	13%	0%	1/1	50	500	500	500
Brandon Hagy	$7,400	$7,900	$12,800	320	102	-14%	38%	0%	1/1	18	500	500	500
J.J. Spaun	$7,400	$8,100	$12,900	147	97	-6%	27%	-6%	1/1	29	500	500	500
Stephan Jaeger	$7,300	$7,800	$12,100	227	154	-63%	8%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Johnson Wagner	$7,300	$8,400	$12,800	381	107	-10%	0%	-7%	3/4	118	32	26	2
Abraham Ancer	$7,300	$8,800	$12,900	169	98	3%	-26%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Nick Watney	$7,300	$8,600	$13,300	103	87	13%	0%	0%	2/4	37	92	90	23
Cheng-Tsung Pan	$7,300	$8,700	$13,900	181	70	35%	21%	0%	1/1	68	500	500	500
Kelly Kraft	$7,200	$7,400	$12,000	186	166	-56%	26%	-4%	1/1	5	500	500	500
Trey Mullinax	$7,200	$8,000	$12,500	171	126	-11%	14%	0%	1/1	50	500	500	500
JT Poston	$7,200	$9,200	$12,600	311	121	-7%	-100%	-2%	0/1	127	500	500	500
Rory Sabbatini	$7,200	$8,500	$12,800	165	99	11%	-5%	2%	2/4	14	111	109	9
David Lingmerth	$7,200	$8,000	$13,800	221	73	33%	48%	-3%	4/4	64	6	16	9
Bill Haas	$7,200	$9,500	$13,900	93	72	36%	-61%	-12%	3/4	37	92	23	9
George McNeill	$7,100		$10,400	1095	1000	-186%		-21%	3/3	500	22	2	17
Tom Hoge	$7,100	$7,700	$11,700	185	176	-51%	-1%	0%	1/2	127	37	500	500
Denny McCarthy	$7,100	$8,100	$12,000	402	167	-41%	-38%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Zac Blair	$7,100	$8,000	$12,000	501	166	-37%	-21%	-4%	1/2	73	78	500	500
William McGirt	$7,100	$8,000	$12,100	187	151	-25%	-10%	-5%	1/3	500	92	118	69
Alex Cejka	$7,100	$7,600	$12,200	239	146	-16%	28%	-11%	2/2	9	60	500	500
Tyler Duncan	$7,100	$8,000	$12,200	349	144	-10%	3%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Brandon Harkins	$7,100	$8,200	$12,400	228	128	0%	-2%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ben Crane	$7,100	$8,800	$12,800	285	106	16%	-39%	-5%	1/3	75	111	500	77
James Hahn	$7,100	$8,500	$12,900	85	94	29%	5%	0%	4/4	20	6	89	41
Whee Kim	$7,000	$7,100	$11,700	149	190	-33%	25%	-5%	1/2	118	67	500	500
Brice Garnett	$7,000	$7,800	$11,700	139	182	-30%	-11%	-3%	2/2	500	32	35	500
Cameron Percy	$7,000	$7,600	$11,900	500	168	-20%	11%	-1%	2/3	127	60	500	30
Chase Seiffert	$7,000	$7,700	$12,100	692	156	-8%	13%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Harold Varner	$7,000	$8,100	$12,100	184	151	-3%	-21%	-3%	1/1	29	500	500	500
Corey Conners	$7,000	$9,000	$12,200	342	150	-2%	-130%	-17%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Chris Stroud	$7,000	$7,500	$12,200	210	148	0%	31%	-15%	3/3	20	37	4	500
Bronson Burgoon	$7,000	$7,800	$12,100	300	139	13%	25%	13%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Robert Streb	$7,000	$7,400	$12,300	279	138	15%	45%	0%	4/4	2	2	71	41
Jim Furyk	$7,000	$8,400	$12,600	280	121	20%	-11%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Dominic Bozzelli	$6,900	$7,700	$11,200	307	261	-44%	-34%	-2%	0/1	88	500	500	500
Nicholas Lindheim	$6,900	$7,500	$11,300	316	237	-35%	-9%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Nick Taylor	$6,900	$7,400	$11,300	253	234	-32%	0%	0%	1/2	9	92	500	500
Shawn Stefani	$6,900	$7,400	$11,400	395	234	-32%	0%	-2%	4/4	37	13	35	59
Mac Hughes	$6,900	$7,200	$11,600	256	214	-28%	13%	0%	1/1	20	500	500	500
Chad Campbell	$6,900	$7,500	$11,800	347	188	-13%	9%	-7%	3/4	9	37	90	41
Peter Malnati	$6,900	$7,900	$11,900	543	170	-4%	-12%	-3%	1/2	29	500	145	500
Fabian Gomez	$6,900	$8,300	$12,000	536	163	4%	-42%	-1%	1/2	500	142	500	77
Harris English	$6,900	$7,800	$12,200	235	147	15%	15%	-13%	1/1	29	500	500	500
Scott Stallings	$6,900	$7,900	$12,200	159	143	23%	17%	-4%	4/4	58	67	35	23
Vijay Singh	$6,800	$7,100	$10,700	681	333	-41%	-6%	0%	0/4	127	92	99	121
Martin Flores	$6,800	$7,300	$11,200	357	253	-25%	1%	-1%	4/4	50	67	75	54
Michael Kim	$6,800	$7,000	$11,300	459	239	-20%	18%	-3%	2/2	29	500	500	38
John Peterson	$6,800	$8,100	$11,700	796	203	-9%	-69%	-14%	0/2	500	120	90	500
Michael Thompson	$6,800	$8,300	$11,700	328	199	-6%	-79%	-12%	1/2	500	128	11	500
Jonas Blixt	$6,800	$7,100	$11,700	264	195	-4%	22%	-9%	2/4	88	78	35	1
Sean O’Hair	$6,800	$8,000	$11,800	101	176	6%	-31%	-1%	1/4	103	13	128	82
John Huh	$6,800	$8,400	$12,000	222	158	17%	-52%	0%	2/3	45	54	99	500
Robert Garrigus	$6,800	$7,900	$12,100	246	145	30%	14%	7%	2/2	45	37	500	500
Sam Ryder	$6,800	$8,000	$12,200	250	142	33%	7%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ken Duke	$6,700	$7,100	$10,800		318	-23%	-4%	0%	1/4	103	148	73	121
Derek Fathauer	$6,700	$7,500	$10,900	315	292	-18%	-22%	-1%	1/2	127	75	500	500
Conrad Shindler	$6,700	$7,000	$11,000	471	268	-14%	13%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Benjamin Silverman	$6,700	$7,300	$11,300	247	250	-10%	2%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Hudson Swafford	$6,700	$7,900	$11,300	172	226	-1%	-39%	2%	3/3	58	67	52	500
Tom Lovelady	$6,700	$7,600	$11,700	332	205	1%	-10%	-17%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Sam Saunders	$6,700	$7,700	$11,700	196	195	8%	-11%	-9%	0/2	118	120	500	500
Lanto Griffin	$6,700	$7,400	$11,700	335	192	9%	12%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500
David Hearn	$6,700	$7,800	$11,700	469	191	10%	-15%	-6%	3/4	14	2	64	141
Patton Kizzire	$6,700	$8,000	$11,700	69	182	14%	-34%	-1%	0/1	75	500	500	500
Vaughn Taylor	$6,700	$8,900	$11,700	232	175	18%	-159%	3%	0/2	75	500	500	121
Jason Kokrak	$6,700	$7,500	$11,900	144	164	24%	22%	4%	2/3	140	54	500	41
David Bradshaw	$6,600		$10,100		1000	-42%		0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
John Merrick	$6,600		$10,200		1000	-42%		-5%	0/1	500	92	500	500
J.J. Henry	$6,600	$7,000	$10,300	476	456	-23%	-7%	2%	3/4	45	13	57	82
Tim Herron	$6,600	$7,300	$10,400	723	443	-19%	-21%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Steve Wheatcroft	$6,600	$7,000	$10,500	883	375	-16%	0%	1%	0/2	127	128	500	500
Geoff Ogilvy	$6,600	$7,100	$10,600	487	364	-15%	-9%	0%	1/1	58	500	500	500
Brett Stegmaier	$6,600	$7,100	$10,900	808	311	-8%	-3%	-5%	1/1	50	500	500	500
Cameron Tringale	$6,600	$7,200	$10,900	445	299	-5%	-3%	-2%	2/4	88	111	4	23
Cody Gribble	$6,600	$7,700	$10,900	399	286	-3%	-39%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Tyrone Van Aswegen	$6,600	$7,700	$11,200	326	247	5%	-29%	2%	2/3	73	78	57	500
Daniel Summerhays	$6,600	$7,100	$11,400	403	232	10%	14%	-1%	1/3	500	149	145	9
Scott Brown	$6,600	$7,100	$11,700	178	203	15%	19%	-14%	3/4	103	37	75	72
Steve Marino	$6,600	$7,200	$11,700	646	200	16%	17%	-13%	1/1	500	500	11	500
Omar Uresti	$6,500	$7,000	$10,200		722	-22%	-18%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Sam O’Dell	$6,500	$7,000	$10,200		658	-20%	-17%	0%	0/1	500	92	500	500
Andrew Yun	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300	594	582	-18%	-15%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Zecheng Dou	$6,500	$7,000	$10,300		536	-16%	-13%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Stuart Appleby	$6,500	$7,400	$10,300	722	494	-14%	-40%	-2%	4/4	29	54	35	9
Parker McLachlin	$6,500	$7,400	$10,300		489	-13%	-39%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Roberto Diaz	$6,500	$7,100	$10,300	638	450	-9%	-17%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ricky Barnes	$6,500	$7,600	$10,400	518	444	-8%	-52%	-3%	1/4	103	67	90	110
Rob Oppenheim	$6,500	$7,000	$10,400	329	439	-5%	-3%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Will Claxton	$6,500	$7,000	$10,400		411	-4%	-2%	0%	0/1	500	500	500	94
Billy Hurley	$6,500	$7,000	$10,400	535	389	-3%	-1%	1%	2/3	88	37	4	500
Norman Xiong	$6,500	$7,600	$10,700		334	1%	-40%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jason Gore	$6,400		$10,600	552	1000	-14%		-24%	1/3	500	128	57	110
Robert Allenby	$6,400		$10,200	1135	1000	-14%		-5%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Troy Matteson	$6,400		$10,000		1000	-14%		3%	2/2	500	500	45	41
Will MacKenzie	$6,400	$7,600		1007	558	-6%	-66%		0/1	500	500	90	500
Bob Estes	$6,400	$7,000	$10,400		444	3%	-4%	-2%	0/1	500	500	500	94
Martin Piller	$6,400	$7,000	$10,700	261	342	9%	3%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ethan Tracy	$6,400	$7,500	$10,800	540	322	12%	-28%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jonathan Byrd	$6,400	$7,000	$10,900	358	306	14%	8%	-4%	2/4	58	22	99	133
Matt Every	$6,400	$7,000	$10,900	637	300	15%	8%	-3%	1/2	127	500	500	38
Talor Gooch	$6,400	$7,000	$11,000	233	275	18%	12%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Adam Schenk	$6,400	$7,100	$11,200	373	263	20%	5%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Blayne Barber	$6,400	$7,400	$11,300	439	249	23%	-5%	-5%	0/2	88	78	500	500
Steven Bowditch	$6,300		$10,000		1000	-4%		3%	3/4	103	13	79	2
Davey Jude	$6,300		$10,100		916	-4%		1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Smylie Kaufman	$6,300	$7,000	$10,100	432	872	-3%	-21%	1%	1/1	37	500	500	500
Tommy Gainey	$6,300	$7,000	$10,100		853	-2%	-20%	2%	2/4	64	78	145	41
Devin Gee	$6,300		$10,200		778	-1%		-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Chris Couch	$6,300	$7,000	$10,200		708	0%	-18%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
John Daly	$6,300	$7,000	$10,200		632	1%	-16%	1%	1/3	144	78	79	500
Jon Curran	$6,300	$7,000	$10,300		556	4%	-13%	-5%	0/1	500	142	500	500
Brendon De Jonge	$6,300	$7,000	$10,300		518	5%	-12%	-3%	3/4	75	60	64	17
Matt Atkins	$6,300	$7,000	$10,300	556	488	7%	-9%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Xinjun Zhang	$6,300	$7,100	$10,300		480	8%	-19%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Kyle Thompson	$6,300	$7,000	$10,400	521	464	9%	-8%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jonathan Randolph	$6,300	$7,000	$10,700	394	344	16%	2%	-3%	1/2	20	92	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend