PGA First Look: Honda Classic
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Course Preview
Dustin Johnson ran away with the Genesis Open last week at Riviera. He was one of the highest owned golfers for the week thanks to the holy trinity of PGA DFS – good form, good course history, and a perfect fit for the course. Thomas Pieters is one of the most talented young golfers in the world and the casual golf fan hadn’t hear of him before last week. He spends most of his time on the Euro Tour, but made a big splash at the Genesis Open, finishing in a tie for second. Other notable top ten finishes last week include Justin Rose, Kevin Na, Wesley Bryan, Charley Hoffman, Martin Laird, and Ollie Schniederjans.
The PGA Tour now heads to Palm Beach Gardens for the first tournament of the Florida swing. The Honda Classic has been held at the PGA National Champion Course for each of the last 11 years. Despite being a Par 70 that measures only 7,140 yards, it is one of the most difficult courses the players will face all season. There are only two par fives to score on and the course is littered with bunkers and water hazards. The cut line in the last two seasons was +3 and +4 and there are typically fewer than 20 golfers under par each year. The course also features the famous “Bear Trap,” which is one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf (holes 15, 16, and 17). If you are sweating the cut and your golfer needs to stay even heading through the golf trap, you will certainly need some luck on your side.
There are a number of angles that we can take this week, but most importantly may be the style of golfer. There are certain courses (like Riviera) where driving distance gives golfers a monster edge, but PGA National isn’t one of them. With danger lurking around the corner on seemingly every hole, players need to be accurate with their driver. We’ve seen longer hitters succeed here in the past, but this is far from a bomber’s paradise. Rather than leaning on distance or accuracy, I will be looking for good ball strikers, regardless of distance off the tee. Avoiding the big number is important this week, so bogey avoidance will be weighted a bit more. Second shots are important here, so strokes gained approach makes the list. As always, strokes gained tee to green and birdie or better percentage will carry the two heaviest weights.
It’s also important to note the shift in grass type. We go from Poa Annua greens in California to Bermuda greens in Florida. Targeting Bermuda specialists and players that have grown up playing around the area could prove to be a big advantage. We have also seen links-style golfers succeed here in the past. Five of the last ten winners here have been major champions, so knowing how to play difficult golf courses is advantageous. This is also the first week for most of the Euro Tour guys in America, as they gear up for their run at the Masters. Danny Willett, Tyrell Hatton, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Soren Kjelsden, Thomas Pieters, Louis Oosthuizen, and Matthew Fitzpatrick are all in the field. Overall, there are 22 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world playing this week.
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds.
Recent Winners of this Event: Adam Scott (2016), Padraig Harrington (2015), Russell Henley (2014), Michael Thompson (2013), Rory McIlroy (2012)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Ball Striking
4) Strokes Gained Approach
5) Bogey Avoidance
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2012-2016)
| Golfer | Salary | OWGR | Odds to Win | + / – % Diff. | Cuts | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Scott | $12,200 | 7 | 12 | 0% | 2/2 | 1 | 500 | 12 | 500 | 500 |
| Rickie Fowler | $11,900 | 14 | 17 | -50% | 5/5 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 13 | 7 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,800 | 8 | 17 | -33% | 1/2 | 3 | 95 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sergio Garcia | $10,900 | 9 | 16 | 50% | 3/3 | 2 | 31 | 8 | 500 | 500 |
| Zach Johnson | $9,700 | 40 | 37 | -120% | 1/3 | 92 | 72 | 33 | 500 | 500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $9,400 | 25 | 28 | 17% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 120 | 500 |
| Russell Knox | $9,000 | 19 | 30 | 14% | 3/3 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Berger | $8,900 | 34 | 33 | -13% | 1/2 | 86 | 2 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Paul Casey | $8,700 | 16 | 32 | 22% | 3/4 | 43 | 3 | 12 | 140 | 500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,500 | 18 | 33 | 20% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,300 | 41 | 34 | 9% | 2/2 | 61 | 500 | 500 | 68 | 500 |
| Jimmy Walker | $8,200 | 22 | 49 | -67% | 2/2 | 43 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 67 |
| Brendan Steele | $8,100 | 54 | 38 | 0% | 5/5 | 14 | 11 | 33 | 51 | 75 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $8,000 | 26 | 51 | -50% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $8,000 | 29 | 48 | -36% | 0/1 | 78 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Russell Henley | $7,900 | 137 | 47 | -13% | 3/4 | 92 | 44 | 1 | 13 | 500 |
| Branden Grace | $7,900 | 17 | 39 | 13% | 1/2 | 103 | 500 | 500 | 71 | 500 |
| Charles Howell | $7,800 | 64 | 41 | 11% | 4/5 | 78 | 44 | 55 | 29 | 26 |
| Danny Willett | $7,800 | 13 | 51 | -22% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,700 | 47 | 41 | 25% | 2/2 | 70 | 51 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Thomas Pieters | $7,700 | 33 | 38 | 40% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,700 | 51 | 59 | -30% | 2/3 | 500 | 44 | 88 | 51 | 500 |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,600 | 106 | 55 | 0% | 3/5 | 92 | 86 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,600 | 28 | 71 | -35% | 1/1 | 74 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $7,600 | 128 | 64 | -22% | 0/1 | 86 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Luke Donald | $7,600 | 87 | 65 | -26% | 3/3 | 61 | 7 | 8 | 500 | 500 |
| Brooks Koepka | $7,500 | 21 | 44 | 37% | 3/3 | 26 | 51 | 33 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Dufner | $7,500 | 70 | 56 | 11% | 3/3 | 61 | 17 | 500 | 51 | 500 |
| Sean O’Hair | $7,500 | 85 | 80 | -26% | 4/5 | 14 | 25 | 88 | 18 | 44 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,500 | 62 | 66 | -11% | 2/3 | 500 | 51 | 500 | 58 | 93 |
| William McGirt | $7,400 | 49 | 79 | -3% | 4/5 | 8 | 22 | 71 | 125 | 62 |
| Ryan Palmer | $7,400 | 88 | 79 | -6% | 5/5 | 26 | 25 | 2 | 41 | 26 |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,400 | 167 | 82 | -16% | 2/4 | 53 | 125 | 500 | 9 | 112 |
| Scott Brown | $7,400 | 114 | 93 | -35% | 2/3 | 10 | 95 | 75 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Tringale | $7,400 | 205 | 130 | -90% | 3/5 | 86 | 44 | 41 | 125 | 47 |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,300 | 32 | 59 | 31% | 1/2 | 65 | 95 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Harman | $7,300 | 108 | 84 | -6% | 3/5 | 134 | 11 | 58 | 110 | 12 |
| Graeme McDowell | $7,300 | 89 | 63 | 25% | 4/5 | 5 | 72 | 46 | 9 | 9 |
| David Lingmerth | $7,300 | 80 | 97 | -22% | 3/4 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 101 | 500 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,300 | 206 | 101 | -25% | 2/2 | 43 | 3 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Lucas Glover | $7,200 | 173 | 96 | -5% | 1/4 | 78 | 117 | 88 | 4 | 500 |
| Billy Horschel | $7,200 | 75 | 90 | 2% | 2/4 | 8 | 86 | 126 | 46 | 500 |
| Sung Kang | $7,200 | 186 | 116 | -29% | 1/2 | 10 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 106 |
| Camilo Villegas | $7,200 | 299 | 119 | -32% | 3/5 | 14 | 16 | 41 | 76 | 93 |
| JT Poston | $7,200 | 265 | 195 | -98% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Rory Sabbatini | $7,200 | 423 | 167 | -71% | 3/5 | 134 | 11 | 33 | 110 | 62 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $7,100 | 68 | 85 | 17% | 2/3 | 500 | 95 | 12 | 500 | 67 |
| Stewart Cink | $7,100 | 231 | 108 | -4% | 5/5 | 26 | 31 | 58 | 41 | 36 |
| Robert Garrigus | $7,100 | 212 | 116 | -9% | 2/3 | 500 | 31 | 109 | 500 | 30 |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,100 | 216 | 116 | -9% | 2/4 | 43 | 500 | 120 | 18 | 120 |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,100 | 93 | 111 | -6% | 2/3 | 65 | 140 | 61 | 500 | 500 |
| Martin Flores | $7,100 | 223 | 142 | -30% | 3/4 | 500 | 17 | 12 | 101 | 36 |
| Nick Watney | $7,100 | 424 | 108 | -2% | 2/2 | 500 | 41 | 24 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Percy | $7,100 | 321 | 200 | -81% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 71 | 500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,000 | 125 | 82 | 33% | 1/2 | 140 | 44 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $7,000 | 91 | 120 | 0% | 2/4 | 120 | 31 | 75 | 500 | 140 |
| Michael Thompson | $7,000 | 218 | 159 | -22% | 4/5 | 53 | 44 | 120 | 1 | 47 |
| Trey Mullinax | $7,000 | 307 | 189 | -42% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Robert Streb | $7,000 | 113 | 182 | -38% | 3/3 | 26 | 59 | 500 | 18 | 500 |
| Richy Werenski | $7,000 | 228 | 225 | -71% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kelly Kraft | $7,000 | 174 | 180 | -35% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Fredrik Jacobson | $7,000 | 213 | 175 | -33% | 4/5 | 26 | 95 | 12 | 25 | 16 |
| Jeff Overton | $7,000 | 745 | 187 | -40% | 5/5 | 21 | 7 | 67 | 37 | 18 |
| Zac Blair | $7,000 | 267 | 209 | -60% | 1/2 | 138 | 22 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | $6,900 | 237 | 80 | 48% | 3/5 | 65 | 72 | 33 | 76 | 56 |
| Tim Wilkinson | $6,900 | 320 | 201 | -32% | 2/2 | 500 | 51 | 55 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,900 | 152 | 166 | -6% | 2/3 | 500 | 72 | 24 | 29 | 500 |
| Grayson Murray | $6,900 | 150 | 167 | -8% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ryan Brehm | $6,900 | 263 | 305 | -72% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandon Hagy | $6,900 | 382 | 271 | -63% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $6,900 | 145 | 305 | -72% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Dominic Bozzelli | $6,900 | 227 | 235 | -52% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Xander Schauffele | $6,900 | 317 | 363 | -91% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $6,900 | 61 | 287 | -71% | 1/1 | 74 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Bohn | $6,900 | 261 | 368 | -94% | 2/4 | 500 | 72 | 88 | 71 | 62 |
| Luke List | $6,800 | 190 | 134 | 21% | 1/2 | 10 | 500 | 500 | 110 | 500 |
| John Huh | $6,800 | 220 | 145 | 17% | 3/4 | 14 | 17 | 500 | 101 | 36 |
| Bud Cauley | $6,800 | 191 | 180 | 3% | 0/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 88 | 77 |
| Scott Stallings | $6,800 | 297 | 130 | 24% | 2/3 | 140 | 63 | 500 | 29 | 500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,800 | 112 | 174 | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Blayne Barber | $6,800 | 234 | 199 | -11% | 2/2 | 3 | 58 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ben Crane | $6,800 | 414 | 214 | -17% | 4/5 | 108 | 68 | 69 | 64 | 30 |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,800 | 236 | 218 | -21% | 1/3 | 78 | 31 | 500 | 88 | 500 |
| Boo Weekley | $6,800 | 327 | 267 | -38% | 2/5 | 108 | 72 | 41 | 25 | 77 |
| Whee Kim | $6,800 | 281 | 255 | -37% | 0/1 | 129 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brett Stegmaier | $6,800 | 291 | 250 | -34% | 1/1 | 21 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| J.J. Henry | $6,800 | 470 | 326 | -55% | 0/3 | 500 | 106 | 109 | 500 | 93 |
| J.J. Spaun | $6,700 | 118 | 92 | 53% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,700 | 78 | 143 | 30% | 4/5 | 37 | 17 | 12 | 58 | 77 |
| Padraig Harrington | $6,700 | 148 | 122 | 35% | 3/4 | 43 | 1 | 88 | 500 | 71 |
| Harold Varner | $6,700 | 126 | 216 | -2% | 0/1 | 78 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Shawn Stefani | $6,700 | 346 | 230 | -9% | 0/1 | 500 | 106 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| David Hearn | $6,700 | 196 | 347 | -36% | 1/5 | 108 | 72 | 6 | 88 | 93 |
| Smylie Kaufman | $6,700 | 135 | 282 | -24% | 1/1 | 37 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brian Gay | $6,700 | 516 | 316 | -32% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 51 | 120 |
| Mark Wilson | $6,700 | 607 | 442 | -47% | 3/5 | 129 | 106 | 46 | 37 | 30 |
| Steven Alker | $6,700 | 541 | 495 | -51% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ken Duke | $6,700 | 336 | 326 | -34% | 3/5 | 37 | 125 | 63 | 76 | 62 |
| Chad Collins | $6,700 | 450 | 689 | -57% | 0/4 | 120 | 72 | 88 | 500 | 106 |
| Harris English | $6,600 | 82 | 106 | 53% | 1/3 | 500 | 72 | 500 | 76 | 18 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $6,600 | 81 | 105 | 54% | 0/1 | 92 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Wesley Bryan | $6,600 | 96 | 121 | 44% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jim Herman | $6,600 | 90 | 158 | 34% | 1/2 | 108 | 7 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Chad Campbell | $6,600 | 198 | 224 | 7% | 1/4 | 92 | 59 | 500 | 101 | 77 |
| Vaughn Taylor | $6,600 | 160 | 230 | 4% | 2/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 25 | 18 |
| Patton Kizzire | $6,600 | 116 | 203 | 13% | 1/1 | 26 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Will Wilcox | $6,600 | 268 | 217 | 9% | 1/1 | 43 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Spencer Levin | $6,600 | 283 | 466 | -32% | 2/4 | 53 | 86 | 88 | 500 | 21 |
| Andrew Loupe | $6,600 | 284 | 461 | -30% | 1/1 | 14 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Carl Pettersson | $6,600 | 662 | 563 | -36% | 3/3 | 500 | 51 | 46 | 500 | 36 |
| Alan Morin | $6,600 | 1234 | -40% | 0/3 | 120 | 500 | 138 | 500 | 120 | |
| John Peterson | $6,500 | 553 | 155 | 42% | 1/2 | 500 | 31 | 105 | 500 | 500 |
| Michael Kim | $6,500 | 244 | 193 | 29% | 1/1 | 53 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | $6,500 | 122 | 159 | 40% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Alex Cejka | $6,500 | 183 | 271 | 5% | 1/2 | 21 | 95 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Hurley | $6,500 | 131 | 151 | 43% | 1/3 | 500 | 106 | 5 | 500 | 112 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | $6,500 | 115 | 196 | 27% | 1/3 | 500 | 25 | 126 | 132 | 500 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | $6,500 | 58 | 196 | 27% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Danny Lee | $6,500 | 98 | 241 | 10% | 0/1 | 500 | 95 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,500 | 192 | 234 | 13% | 3/3 | 26 | 59 | 58 | 500 | 500 |
| Will MacKenzie | $6,500 | 449 | 235 | 12% | 2/3 | 51 | 72 | 6 | 500 | 500 |
| Ricky Barnes | $6,500 | 240 | 355 | -10% | 2/5 | 120 | 63 | 80 | 101 | 73 |
| Retief Goosen | $6,500 | 252 | 366 | -12% | 2/4 | 43 | 86 | 120 | 64 | 500 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $6,500 | 394 | 405 | -13% | 1/2 | 61 | 500 | 80 | 500 | 500 |
| Mark Hubbard | $6,500 | 486 | 495 | -19% | 1/1 | 65 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Steven Bowditch | $6,500 | 477 | 916 | -24% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 109 | 29 | 500 |
| Seamus Power | $6,400 | 315 | 193 | 38% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| John Senden | $6,400 | 185 | 228 | 25% | 2/2 | 10 | 500 | 46 | 500 | 500 |
| Cody Gribble | $6,400 | 197 | 254 | 19% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Johnson Wagner | $6,400 | 210 | 318 | 8% | 0/4 | 92 | 500 | 109 | 120 | 93 |
| Ryan Blaum | $6,400 | 381 | 350 | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,400 | 169 | 355 | 4% | 0/2 | 108 | 117 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,400 | 248 | 311 | 9% | 2/2 | 72 | 500 | 24 | 500 | 500 |
| Fabian Gomez | $6,400 | 97 | 274 | 15% | 2/3 | 103 | 70 | 500 | 64 | 500 |
| Jon Curran | $6,400 | 155 | 308 | 10% | 1/2 | 120 | 71 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ernie Els | $6,400 | 386 | 282 | 14% | 3/4 | 70 | 86 | 500 | 46 | 21 |
| Greg Chalmers | $6,400 | 302 | 461 | -2% | 2/3 | 500 | 500 | 88 | 51 | 12 |
| Steve Marino | $6,400 | 412 | 505 | -6% | 1/2 | 108 | 500 | 500 | 74 | 500 |
| Peter Malnati | $6,400 | 367 | 413 | -1% | 0/1 | 120 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Every | $6,400 | 660 | 639 | -8% | 2/5 | 137 | 63 | 24 | 101 | 87 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| + / – % Diff. | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2012 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |