PGA First Look: PGA Championship

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The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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It’s a bittersweet moment now that the fourth major is upon us. Even though this is my least favorite of the four majors, nothing compares to a major week if you are a fan of golf. While we have the FedExCup Championship in a few weeks, this is the last major until next spring. The PGA Tour returns to Quail Hollow in North Carolina, although this is typically the site of the Wells Fargo Championship each year. Looking at course history from past PGA Championships won’t hurt, but it’s better to look at course history from this specific golf course.

Players returning to Quail Hollow will notice some significant changes since the event was held here last season. The first two holes were morphed into one long par four and the par five fifth was broken up into a par three and a par four. The 11th hole was also lengthened and a few bunkers were added. The final change of note is on the greens. They changed every green from Bentgrass to Champion Ultradwarf Bermudagrass, which should provide truer rolling surfaces and reward good putters. This is significant because in the past, the bad greens have negated the advantage good putters have.

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With the new design, the course now measures 7,600 yards and is a Par 71 with three par fives. All three measure between 546 and 592 yards, so the long hitters could potentially reach all three with a good drive. This is a mammoth of a course where distance comes with a huge premium. It’s not that shorter hitters can’t play well here, but they have a disadvantage right off the bat. They will need to be extremely accurate off the tee and with their long irons to have a shot at contending. I’m not going to automatically rule out the shorter hitters, but I will certainly be leaning toward distance off the tee.

Quail Hollow has one of the most famous three-hole stretches in golf, which is known as the “Green Mile.” It just so happens to be final three holes on the course, which will create an exciting finish on Sunday. The 16th hole is a long par four with water all down the left side of the fairway. The 17th hole is a long par three where golfers will have to hit a 220+ yard approach shot over water. And finally, the 18th is another long par four with a creek running all the way down the left side of the fairway. Let’s put it this way, if your golfer is right on the cut line with three holes left to play on Friday, you better hope that he is finishing his round on the front nine.

In the past, this has been a ball striker’s course. I expect that trend to continue this week. I will be leaning heavily on golfers with a strong off the tee game and a strong approach game. Birdies are always good for fantasy scoring and are always a key weight in my stat model. I will also be looking at par four efficiency from 450-500 yards and par five efficiency from 550-600 yards. Those are the five main statistics I will be looking at this week, although I will also take a glance at putting, especially on Bermuda greens.

Before we get to the course history, I have a few more notes. The first is that the course is expected to play faster than in year’s past and the rough is a bit thicker. While distance is important, it may not be a bad idea to use total driving instead of driving accuracy. In terms of trends, 15 of the last 18 winners of the PGA Championship had a win under their belt earlier that season. Each of the last ten winners were between the ages of 23 and 37. Finally, if you want to see who is paired together, you can check out this week’s tee times.

Cut Rule: The top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is not in effect this week.

Recent Winners at Quail Hollow: James Hahn (2016), Rory McIlroy (2015), J.B. Holmes (2014), Derek Ernst (2013), Rickie Fowler (2012)

Recent Winners of the PGA Championship: Jimmy Walker (2016), Jason Day (2015), Rory McIlroy (2014 & 2012), Jason Dufner (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 5 Efficiency (550-600 yards)
5) Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards)

Salaries, Odds, and Course History from the Wells Fargo Championship (2012-2016)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Jordan Spieth $12,000 $10,200 $19,200 2 9 -100% 0% 0% 1/1 500 500 500 32 500
Rory McIlroy $11,800 $10,300 $19,300 4 7 50% 0% 0% 5/5 4 1 8 10 2
Dustin Johnson $11,400 $10,000 $18,700 1 13 -33% -33% -33% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rickie Fowler $10,700 $9,500 $16,600 10 17 -25% -25% 17% 4/4 4 500 38 73 1
Hideki Matsuyama $10,500 $8,800 $16,900 3 12 40% 57% 25% 3/3 11 20 38 500 500
Jason Day $10,400 $9,100 $16,500 7 28 -33% -33% -14% 1/1 500 500 500 500 9
Jon Rahm $10,100 $9,200 $16,800 6 25 14% -20% -20% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Henrik Stenson $9,800 $8,000 $16,400 8 42 -63% -8% -63% 1/4 86 58 500 140 75
Sergio Garcia $9,400 $8,800 $16,200 5 39 -22% -57% -10% 1/1 500 500 500 16 500
Brooks Koepka $9,200 $8,600 $16,400 11 25 30% 22% 13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Justin Rose $9,000 $8,200 $16,200 13 35 18% 18% 10% 2/2 3 500 5 500 500
Justin Thomas $8,900 $7,400 $15,900 14 44 -17% 18% -17% 1/2 106 7 500 500 500
Matt Kuchar $8,800 $7,900 $15,000 12 59 -38% -38% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adam Scott $8,600 $8,400 $15,900 17 39 29% 0% 17% 1/2 17 82 500 500 500
Phil Mickelson $8,500 $7,500 $15,300 30 63 -27% -19% -36% 5/5 4 4 11 3 26
Branden Grace $8,200 $7,300 $15,300 33 70 -38% -16% -57% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Marc Leishman $8,100 $6,700 $14,700 31 66 -24% 19% -5% 1/1 500 500 500 500 65
Tommy Fleetwood $8,000 $7,400 $14,800 15 64 -11% -18% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alexander Noren $7,900 $7,700 $14,400 9 71 -21% -64% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Paul Casey $7,800 $7,600 $14,700 18 42 40% 20% 40% 1/1 41 500 500 500 500
Daniel Berger $7,700 $7,100 $14,400 19 57 19% 23% 26% 2/2 17 28 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $7,600 $6,500 $13,600 20 51 27% 47% 54% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Thomas Pieters $7,500 $6,800 $14,900 23 51 35% 40% 12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charl Schwartzel $7,500 $6,500 $14,400 22 104 -43% -10% -43% 0/1 500 128 500 500 500
Louis Oosthuizen $7,500 $6,900 $14,400 27 111 -57% -50% -57% 0/1 500 83 500 500 500
Russell Henley $7,400 $5,900 $12,900 56 148 -73% 4% 2% 1/2 500 500 139 43 500
J.B. Holmes $7,400 $6,600 $14,000 55 92 -8% 0% 0% 3/4 53 82 1 500 57
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,400 $6,700 $13,100 42 195 -154% -154% -61% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brendan Steele $7,300 $5,500 $12,800 53 163 -79% 22% 2% 4/5 14 9 30 110 48
Ryan Moore $7,300 $5,400 $12,600 47 192 -121% 11% -12% 4/5 86 47 18 6 5
Bubba Watson $7,300 $6,300 $14,600 51 79 14% 34% -14% 0/1 500 500 500 98 500
Patrick Reed $7,300 $7,200 $14,800 28 99 -7% -55% -72% 4/4 28 58 500 32 32
Jamie Lovemark $7,200 $5,800 $12,900 82 141 -30% 23% 7% 1/3 53 500 74 500 110
Brandt Snedeker $7,200 $6,400 $14,000 36 131 -18% -11% -39% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyle Stanley $7,100 $5,500 $12,800 59 157 -40% 27% 8% 2/4 86 500 60 6 93
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $7,100 $7,200 $14,400 16 96 17% -45% -26% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $7,100 $5,700 $12,900 35 228 -117% -27% -65% 0/1 106 500 500 500 500
Peter Uihlein $7,000 $5,900 $12,100 88 193 -71% -38% 22% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tony Finau $7,000 $7,000 $13,100 61 88 29% -17% 34% 2/2 28 16 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $7,000 $5,400 $12,100 104 200 -82% 4% 17% 3/5 8 28 115 27 117
Kevin Chappell $7,000 $6,000 $14,000 26 81 32% 42% 7% 5/5 41 16 11 80 53
Xander Schauffele $7,000 $6,200 $12,800 72 117 0% 5% 28% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Hudson Swafford $7,000 $4,800 $11,800 84 238 -113% 28% 19% 0/1 500 500 128 500 500
Kevin Kisner $7,000 $6,200 $13,900 25 99 21% 25% 3% 2/4 86 38 6 500 75
Ian Poulter $7,000 $6,400 $13,700 63 104 16% 9% 6% 1/1 61 500 500 500 500
Bernd Wiesberger $7,000 $5,900 $12,500 32 168 -45% -17% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Graeme McDowell $7,000 $5,500 $12,000 109 255 -137% -34% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Emiliano Grillo $7,000 $5,500 $12,900 54 182 -53% 13% -26% 1/1 61 500 500 500 500
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,000 $5,200 $12,200 78 175 -47% 35% 29% 0/1 500 500 88 500 500
Wesley Bryan $7,000 $5,000 $12,400 39 269 -150% 2% -51% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Padraig Harrington $7,000 $4,900 $12,300 146 235 -111% 24% -13% 0/4 135 99 128 155 500
James Hahn $6,900 $5,500 $11,900 68 184 -13% 12% 37% 3/4 1 73 152 50 500
Jimmy Walker $6,900 $6,500 $13,200 38 111 29% -23% 5% 2/3 500 500 101 22 48
Robert Streb $6,900 $5,300 $12,000 149 251 -65% -10% 1% 3/4 28 4 23 110 500
Kevin Na $6,900 $5,800 $12,300 79 247 -60% -48% -17% 1/2 500 500 18 500 127
Russell Knox $6,900 $5,200 $12,300 41 190 -17% 29% 14% 1/2 500 58 500 500 135
Patrick Cantlay $6,900 $5,000 $12,900 128 161 4% 48% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cameron Smith $6,900 $5,000 $11,700 169 298 -102% -8% -4% 0/1 106 500 500 500 500
Bryson DeChambeau $6,900 $5,000 $12,400 89 209 -37% 27% -13% 0/1 86 500 500 500 500
William McGirt $6,900 $5,400 $12,200 62 271 -85% -33% -22% 2/4 17 28 152 500 110
Byeong-Hun An $6,900 $5,900 $12,800 67 213 -40% -55% -38% 0/1 106 500 500 500 500
Brian Harman $6,900 $5,800 $13,400 29 149 12% 18% -24% 4/5 35 119 65 10 57
Shane Lowry $6,900 $5,900 $13,300 83 154 10% 0% -24% 0/1 86 500 500 500 500
Lee Westwood $6,900 $6,500 $13,200 57 163 2% -70% -31% 2/3 500 500 88 4 5
Billy Horschel $6,900 $5,300 $12,900 50 198 -31% 13% -48% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Kokrak $6,800 $4,600 $11,100 106 303 -61% 13% 7% 2/5 106 83 23 50 135
Brandon Stone $6,800 $5,300 $10,900 97 365 -70% -44% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Francesco Molinari $6,800 $5,900 $13,100 21 133 39% 15% 2% 1/1 17 500 500 500 500
Webb Simpson $6,800 $6,000 $13,000 60 134 38% 9% 7% 4/5 122 2 38 32 4
Steve Stricker $6,800 $6,500 $12,400 76 180 14% -90% 10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luke List $6,800 $4,900 $11,900 148 276 -50% 6% -6% 1/2 86 500 500 16 500
Keegan Bradley $6,800 $5,700 $12,500 99 165 18% 10% 7% 0/1 500 500 500 500 106
Bill Haas $6,800 $6,100 $13,000 37 141 36% 2% 5% 2/5 86 68 44 110 93
Zach Johnson $6,800 $6,600 $13,900 40 75 64% 14% 23% 3/3 500 500 14 65 69
D.A. Points $6,800 $4,600 $11,400 228 440 -80% 2% -10% 2/5 86 110 101 16 2
Kelly Kraft $6,800 $4,700 $11,400 171 374 -74% 2% -6% 0/1 122 500 500 500 500
Adam Hadwin $6,800 $5,200 $12,400 48 148 33% 49% 30% 1/2 61 99 500 500 500
Patrick Rodgers $6,800 $5,000 $12,400 131 197 -2% 31% -6% 1/2 86 2 500 500 500
Andy Sullivan $6,800 $5,900 $12,400 71 210 -9% -53% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Hao-Tong Li $6,800 $5,800 $12,500 65 190 6% -11% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Hideto Tanihara $6,700 $5,400 $11,200 52 292 -28% -44% 7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Gary Woodland $6,700 $6,300 $13,500 44 107 58% 11% 6% 4/4 24 4 18 61 500
Sean O’Hair $6,700 $5,600 $12,000 75 230 5% -20% 11% 3/5 35 20 139 84 15
Graham DeLaet $6,700 $5,000 $12,300 117 233 4% 20% -10% 1/1 77 500 500 500 500
Pat Perez $6,700 $5,300 $12,100 45 253 -10% -14% -7% 3/4 500 20 44 32 75
Andrew Johnston $6,700 $5,900 $11,900 108 262 -14% -96% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Anirban Lahiri $6,700 $5,200 $11,900 74 272 -20% -13% -4% 1/1 41 500 500 500 500
Daniel Summerhays $6,700 $5,300 $12,200 98 251 -6% -10% -9% 3/5 14 119 55 43 117
Luke Donald $6,700 $5,000 $11,900 95 280 -25% -4% -9% 1/1 71 500 500 500 500
Jonas Blixt $6,700 $4,700 $11,700 303 308 -33% 8% -7% 1/5 106 99 74 140 9
Jason Dufner $6,700 $6,400 $13,900 34 109 57% 0% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jeunghun Wang $6,700 $4,800 $11,500 73 453 -48% -6% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Danny Willett $6,700 $5,300 $12,000 49 329 -35% -40% -25% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Wood $6,700 $6,100 $12,300 66 262 -14% -114% -30% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Soren Kjeldsen $6,700 $5,900 $12,300 80 252 -9% -87% -24% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Younghan Song $6,600 $4,700 $10,700 111 471 -27% -4% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Fabrizio Zanotti $6,600 $4,800 $10,800 103 415 -23% -4% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Fox $6,600 $5,100 $11,400 101 265 2% -2% 13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Richard Sterne $6,600 $4,700 $11,100 114 303 -10% 9% 7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ross Fisher $6,600 $5,700 $12,500 43 155 50% 20% 17% 1/1 500 500 500 10 500
Sung Kang $6,600 $5,300 $11,700 90 260 5% -17% 10% 1/2 86 500 500 500 26
Bud Cauley $6,600 $5,100 $12,200 107 250 11% 8% -8% 2/3 122 500 38 38 500
Danny Lee $6,600 $5,600 $12,400 87 188 38% 6% 5% 3/4 9 13 50 500 117
David Lingmerth $6,600 $5,300 $12,300 100 190 34% 19% 11% 1/4 17 83 101 84 500
Martin Laird $6,600 $5,700 $11,900 93 272 -2% -63% -5% 4/5 65 55 30 84 26
Vijay Singh $6,600 $4,600 $11,100 267 458 -26% 1% -6% 2/4 77 99 30 500 93
Ernie Els $6,600 $4,900 $11,400 419 360 -16% -6% -3% 2/2 69 500 44 500 500
Cody Gribble $6,600 $4,600 $11,000 277 618 -35% -7% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyrrell Hatton $6,600 $6,200 $12,900 24 219 23% -85% -61% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Herman $6,500 $4,600 $10,800 96 408 -5% 5% 3% 2/4 122 13 73 98 500
Alexander Levy $6,500 $5,400 $11,600 69 247 24% -17% 19% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Hend $6,500 $5,100 $11,200 92 281 7% -11% 9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyung-tae Kim $6,500 $4,900 $10,400 110 475 -12% -17% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Pablo Larrazabal $6,500 $4,900 $10,700 105 410 -6% -11% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Joost Luiten $6,500 $5,200 $12,000 86 277 9% -16% -15% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mackenzie Hughes $6,500 $4,900 $11,500 112 348 0% -5% -5% 0/1 148 500 500 500 500
Jhonattan Vegas $6,500 $5,400 $12,400 46 165 52% 26% 16% 2/4 53 76 74 500 75
Rod Pampling $6,500 $4,700 $10,600 195 598 -16% -9% -2% 1/1 500 500 500 43 500
Grayson Murray $6,500 $4,600 $12,000 91 245 25% 33% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nicolas Colsaerts $6,500 $5,000 $11,900 113 283 6% -6% -11% 0/2 500 500 88 84 500
Yuta Ikeda $6,500 $4,900 $11,100 70 545 -15% -21% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Thongchai Jaidee $6,500 $5,100 $11,500 102 368 -3% -23% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jordan L. Smith $6,500 $4,600 $12,100 81 234 28% 35% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,400 $4,800 $10,600 119 520 -2% -12% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dylan Frittelli $6,400 $4,900 $10,800 85 370 8% -9% 5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Thomas Bjorn $6,400 $5,100 $10,600 532 500 0% -35% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charles Howell $6,400 $5,200 $12,300 58 200 44% 19% 1% 3/5 106 38 18 10 135
Davis Love $6,400 $4,600 $10,600 815 505 -1% -2% 1% 1/2 150 500 65 500 500
Y.E. Yang $6,400 $4,500 $10,700 541 603 -4% 1% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Furyk $6,400 $5,600 $12,500 94 224 40% -17% -29% 2/4 106 110 2 500 26
Paul Claxton $6,400 $4,500 $10,400 1526 -8% -3% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
John Daly $6,400 $4,500 $10,500 963 -6% -1% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Omar Uresti $6,400 $4,500 $10,400 1658 -13% -8% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adam Rainaud $6,300 $4,500 $10,400 1658 -4% -8% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rich Beem $6,300 $4,500 $10,400 1658 -4% -8% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
David McNabb $6,300 $4,500 $10,400 1684 -7% -11% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Shaun Micheel $6,300 $4,500 $10,400 1368 1% -2% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kenny Pigman $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1684 -4% -11% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
David Muttitt $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1711 -7% -14% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Vermeer $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1589 2% -4% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rod Perry $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1711 -7% -14% -13% 0/1 500 500 139 500 500
Scott Hebert $6,200 $4,500 $10,400 1711 -7% -14% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Matt Dobyns $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1605 5% -5% -4% 1/1 53 500 500 500 500
Brian Smock $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1500 7% -2% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Stuart Deane $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1611 3% -7% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Greg Gregory $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1605 5% -5% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mike Small $6,100 $4,500 $10,400 1737 -6% -17% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jamie Broce $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1684 3% -11% -10% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alex Beach $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1605 8% -5% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rich Berberian $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1691 1% -13% -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Moody $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1658 5% -8% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jaysen Hansen $6,000 $4,500 $10,400 1711 0% -14% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2012 – 2016 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious