PGA First Look: PGA Championship

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-08 19:56:58

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

It’s a little sad that the final major of the year is already here, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t enjoy the week. This is the 100th edition of the PGA Championship and it is setting up to be a good one. We have one of the strongest fields that we have seen all season and many of the big names are rounding into form at the right time. The PGA Championship changes venues each year, so looking at course history for the tournament is a little pointless (which is why I didn’t include it in the table below). Bellerive Country Club is a classic Robert Trent Jones design that is located in St. Louis, Missouri. For a preview of every hole, you can visit the PGA website here.

The course itself will play at a Par 70 that measures just over 7,300 yards on the scorecard. The actual yardage will likely change a bit each day, but the course will certainly play long. There are only two par fives and they both measure close to 600 yards, so only the longest hitters will be able to reach them in two. We have a potentially drivable par-four 11th hole (355 yards), but six of the par fours measure at least 450 yards. It will be interesting to see how the golfers attack the course off the tee and I will be scouring through player interviews leading up to Thursday. The fairways are tree-lined, the rough is penal, and the fairway narrows on a lot of the holes at around 300 yards. With that being said, early reports suggest that the greens have been very receptive, which will really help approach shots from the rough.

Speaking of the greens, they are massive. On average, they measure 7,500 square feet. They are filled with slopes and different levels, which will place a big emphasis on approach play. Everyone will be hitting greens in regulation, but you have to be on the right level to give yourself a realistic birdie opportunity. Lag putting will be important, as we will see plenty of 80+ foot putts from golfers this week. The greens will run at an 11 on the stimpmeter, which is slow by PGA Tour standards and snail-like compared to most major championships. I could be completely wrong in my assessment, but with rain leading up to the tournament and extremely slow greens, I am giving a boost to elite ball strikers that may not be the best putters (List, Scott, Chappell, etc.).

You will see that water is in play on 11 of the holes, but it won’t actually play a big factor this week. In 2008 at the BMW Championship (which was hosted at Bellerive), very few balls were actually hit into the water. The course also features a number of doglegs right to left, which could favor golfers with a slight draw off the tee. While it could help, I’m not actually factoring in ball flight in my analysis. The fairways are made of Zoysiagrass, which provides great lies and gives golfers the feel that the ball is actually sitting up. While I am still giving an edge to distance over accuracy, playing from the fairway will be a big advantage. The best approach might be to look at strokes gained off the tee or total driving.

Best of luck this week! As always, we have plenty of great premium content from some of the best DFS minds in the business.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. There is no MDF since this is a major.

Recent Winners of this Event: Justin Thomas (2017), Jimmy Walker (2016), Jason Day (2015), Rory McIlroy (2014), Jason Dufner (2013)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 4 Scoring
5) Bogey Avoidance

Hole by Hole Breakdown

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Salary	OWGR	Odds	DK Odds	FD Odds	FDRFT Odds
Dustin Johnson	$11,400	$12,600	$18,000	1	8	0%	0%	0%
Rory McIlroy	$11,000	$12,300	$17,400	5	12	0%	0%	0%
Jordan Spieth	$10,700	$11,500	$17,300	8	20	-133%	-17%	-133%
Rickie Fowler	$10,200	$11,300	$16,300	9	19	0%	56%	20%
Tiger Woods	$9,900	$11,300	$16,400	51	23	-80%	0%	-125%
Justin Thomas	$9,700	$11,400	$16,000	2	13	50%	57%	63%
Brooks Koepka	$9,600	$11,600	$16,100	4	20	-14%	-60%	-14%
Justin Rose	$9,400	$11,900	$16,200	3	19	38%	-67%	17%
Tommy Fleetwood	$9,300	$11,400	$15,800	11	25	-22%	-57%	8%
Francesco Molinari	$9,200	$11,200	$16,000	6	28	-20%	-9%	-50%
Jon Rahm	$9,100	$11,100	$16,000	7	24	9%	23%	-25%
Jason Day	$9,000	$11,700	$15,900	10	19	50%	-50%	45%
Patrick Reed	$8,900	$11,200	$15,200	12	34	0%	-18%	7%
Hideki Matsuyama	$8,800	$10,500	$15,500	16	51	-43%	-11%	-54%
Henrik Stenson	$8,700	$11,000	$15,100	17	48	0%	-7%	0%
Alexander Noren	$8,600	$9,900	$14,900	13	48	-6%	26%	0%
Sergio Garcia	$8,500	$9,600	$14,600	23	84	-88%	-10%	-60%
Patrick Cantlay	$8,400	$9,700	$14,700	24	48	11%	41%	16%
Phil Mickelson	$8,300	$10,400	$14,500	21	70	-42%	-42%	-29%
Xander Schauffele	$8,200	$9,900	$15,000	19	50	5%	17%	-19%
Tony Finau	$8,100	$10,600	$14,800	29	41	33%	18%	22%
Paul Casey	$8,000	$10,900	$14,500	15	49	18%	-20%	14%
Bubba Watson	$8,000	$10,200	$14,400	14	59	0%	-5%	4%
Bryson DeChambeau	$7,900	$10,000	$14,300	22	63	0%	-9%	0%
Matt Kuchar	$7,900	$10,400	$14,200	28	70	-8%	-37%	-4%
Marc Leishman	$7,800	$9,400	$14,200	18	55	19%	34%	16%
Branden Grace	$7,800	$9,600	$14,000	36	73	-12%	0%	-4%
Webb Simpson	$7,700	$10,700	$14,000	20	61	18%	-44%	18%
Louis Oosthuizen	$7,700	$9,800	$13,900	34	68	11%	0%	17%
Joaquin Niemann	$7,600	$9,200	$13,800	163	70	7%	20%	10%
Adam Scott	$7,600	$9,500	$14,200	76	90	-13%	-10%	-36%
Thomas Pieters	$7,600	$8,900	$13,500	71	97	-17%	20%	-6%
Daniel Berger	$7,600	$9,300	$13,100	43	108	-40%	-27%	-20%
Zach Johnson	$7,500	$9,800	$13,200	50	121	-41%	-92%	-41%
Keegan Bradley	$7,500	$9,200	$12,700	65	106	-18%	-14%	2%
Byeong-Hun An	$7,500	$9,000	$13,000	42	110	-26%	-8%	-13%
Brandt Snedeker	$7,500	$9,100	$12,600	86	117	-32%	-22%	-5%
Ryan Moore	$7,400	$9,000	$12,600	73	124	-29%	-23%	-14%
Ian Poulter	$7,400	$9,100	$12,900	31	87	13%	11%	15%
Brian Harman	$7,400	$8,900	$12,700	33	148	-55%	-34%	-44%
Rafael Cabrera-Bello	$7,300	$9,700	$12,600	30	118	-12%	-70%	-7%
Chesson Hadley	$7,300	$8,700	$12,200	66	165	-66%	-33%	-36%
Peter Uihlein	$7,300	$8,600	$12,200	59	163	-63%	-22%	-34%
Kevin Kisner	$7,300	$8,500	$13,700	27	104	7%	37%	-19%
Charley Hoffman	$7,200	$9,100	$12,900	35	100	18%	0%	5%
Kevin Chappell	$7,200	$9,300	$13,100	53	99	20%	-9%	-3%
Emiliano Grillo	$7,200	$8,200	$12,500	64	127	-13%	26%	-4%
Tyrrell Hatton	$7,200	$8,800	$13,100	25	104	13%	19%	-11%
Charles Howell	$7,200	$9,000	$11,900	68	161	-47%	-65%	11%
Charl Schwartzel	$7,200	$8,100	$12,600	52	121	-4%	34%	-9%
Luke List	$7,100	$8,300	$12,200	47	112	14%	34%	12%
Kyle Stanley	$7,100	$8,500	$12,200	26	80	41%	50%	40%
Shane Lowry	$7,100	$8,100	$12,000	88	136	-8%	23%	14%
Russell Knox	$7,100	$8,700	$12,200	55	134	-6%	-6%	-8%
Jamie Lovemark	$7,100	$8,200	$12,000	107	190	-53%	-13%	-22%
Adam Hadwin	$7,100	$8,400	$11,800	58	203	-59%	-27%	-1%
Ryan Fox	$7,100	$7,600	$12,000	82	214	-67%	4%	-33%
Cameron Smith	$7,100	$7,800	$11,700	49	191	-55%	2%	6%
Gary Woodland	$7,000	$8,900	$12,200	44	107	31%	7%	18%
J.B. Holmes	$7,000	$8,000	$12,200	85	148	0%	19%	-18%
Ollie Schniederjans	$7,000	$7,800	$12,000	104	168	-19%	14%	-9%
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,000	$8,800	$12,600	39	149	-3%	-27%	-42%
Eddie Pepperell	$7,000	$8,000	$11,700	57	185	-29%	-4%	10%
Jason Dufner	$7,000	$8,600	$12,600	56	160	-8%	-16%	-49%
Andy Sullivan	$7,000	$7,900	$11,800	108	181	-25%	4%	8%
Martin Kaymer	$7,000	$7,700	$12,200	130	220	-49%	-4%	-76%
Danny Willett	$7,000	$7,400	$11,900	274	236	-58%	6%	-26%
Beau Hossler	$6,900	$8,500	$12,200	69	167	-1%	-15%	-38%
Billy Horschel	$6,900	$8,000	$12,100	95	137	18%	23%	10%
Pat Perez	$6,900	$8,600	$12,200	38	159	7%	-15%	-26%
Jimmy Walker	$6,900	$8,900	$12,200	70	141	16%	-30%	-14%
Ross Fisher	$6,900	$7,900	$11,900	46	202	-18%	-4%	-8%
Andrew Putnam	$6,900	$7,600		90	171	-7%	18%
Julian Suri	$6,900	$8,400	$11,700	61	237	-38%	-47%	-12%
Scott Piercy	$6,900	$7,500	$11,500	212	236	-35%	2%	4%
Bill Haas	$6,900	$7,800	$12,000	118	184	-10%	7%	-17%
Paul Dunne	$6,900	$7,500	$11,800	81	237	-40%	-1%	-19%
Kevin Na	$6,800	$8,600	$12,000	41	132	32%	4%	17%
Aaron Wise	$6,800	$7,200	$11,900	67	131	33%	53%	30%
Brian Gay	$6,800	$7,300	$11,700	120	248	-26%	6%	-17%
Anirban Lahiri	$6,800	$7,700	$11,700	93	204	-5%	4%	2%
Nick Watney	$6,800	$7,600	$11,700	115	238	-23%	-8%	-14%
Lee Westwood	$6,800	$8,700	$12,000	117	168	9%	-39%	-11%
Chris Kirk	$6,800	$8,000		140	218	-10%	-18%
Michael Kim	$6,800	$7,500	$10,800	202	266	-31%	-9%	13%
Alexander Bjork	$6,800	$7,300	$11,300	74	262	-28%	4%	3%
Shubhankar Sharma	$6,800	$7,800	$11,700	89	297	-45%	-40%	-35%
Russell Henley	$6,700	$8,800	$12,200	54	125	43%	-4%	0%
Thorbjorn Olesen	$6,700	$8,600	$12,000	40	83	65%	44%	52%
Stewart Cink	$6,700	$8,300	$11,300	99	230	-3%	-36%	12%
Si Woo Kim	$6,700	$8,400	$12,100	48	148	34%	9%	6%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	$6,700	$9,000	$12,000	32	154	30%	-55%	3%
Hao-Tong Li	$6,700	$8,500	$12,000	45	161	26%	-8%	-2%
Dylan Frittelli	$6,700	$7,900	$11,800	62	220	1%	-13%	-9%
Jhonattan Vegas	$6,700	$7,400	$11,700	84	222	-1%	10%	-6%
Jason Kokrak	$6,700	$7,300		122	274	-23%	-4%
Troy Merritt	$6,600	$7,100	$11,600	174	213	13%	28%	12%
Chris Wood	$6,600	$7,900	$11,900	91	225	7%	-17%	-22%
James Hahn	$6,600	$7,600	$11,700	97	263	-4%	-13%	-20%
Andrew Landry	$6,600	$7,000	$11,300	79	270	-8%	17%	-2%
Jim Furyk	$6,600	$7,400	$11,300	314	270	-8%	-6%	-2%
Patton Kizzire	$6,600	$7,000	$10,900	80	287	-15%	12%	3%
Padraig Harrington	$6,600	$7,000	$11,400	329	283	-14%	13%	-9%
Adrian Otaegui	$6,600	$7,100	$11,500	83	328	-20%	0%	-21%
Austin Cook	$6,500	$7,700	$11,700	98	186	27%	9%	8%
Chez Reavie	$6,500	$7,400	$11,700	63	212	21%	16%	1%
Brendan Steele	$6,500	$8,700	$11,900	60	169	31%	-41%	3%
Whee Kim	$6,500	$7,200	$11,500	100	258	6%	10%	-3%
Matt Wallace	$6,500	$7,500	$11,500	75	268	2%	-10%	-7%
Alexander Levy	$6,500	$7,700	$11,500	72	239	8%	-14%	-1%
Satoshi Kodaira	$6,500	$7,600	$11,000	37	353	-14%	-35%	-6%
Sungjae Im	$6,500	$7,300	$10,700	105	308	-10%	-11%	3%
Jordan L. Smith	$6,400	$7,400	$11,300	141	271	5%	-8%	-4%
J.J. Spaun	$6,400	$7,300	$11,500	135	277	4%	-5%	-14%
Jorge Campillo	$6,400	$7,100	$11,000	77	270	8%	10%	8%
Chris Stroud	$6,400	$7,200	$11,100	207	339	-4%	-6%	-5%
Justin Harding	$6,400	$7,100	$10,500	101	340	-4%	-2%	6%
Mike Lorenzo-Vera	$6,400	$7,100	$10,600	116	340	-4%	-2%	3%
Yuta Ikeda	$6,400	$7,300	$11,100	96	393	-13%	-23%	-15%
Seungsu Han	$6,400	$7,200	$10,700	103	368	-9%	-12%	-3%
Ryan Armour	$6,300	$7,000	$11,300	111	300	6%	10%	-11%
Shugo Imahira	$6,300	$7,200	$10,600	109	360	-1%	-11%	0%
Scott Brown	$6,300	$7,200	$10,800	186	374	-3%	-14%	-7%
Brice Garnett	$6,300	$7,100	$10,900	158	358	0%	-4%	-5%
Vijay Singh	$6,300	$7,100	$10,700	742	378	-4%	-9%	-6%
Brandon Stone	$6,300	$7,500	$11,300	110	280	9%	-17%	-7%
Yusaku Miyazato	$6,300	$7,100	$11,300	78	398	-7%	-11%	-25%
Y.E. Yang	$6,300	$7,000	$10,400	317	523	-8%	-3%	-3%
Mikko Korhonen	$6,300	$7,100	$10,500	102	373	-2%	-7%	1%
Paul Broadhurst	$6,200	$7,000	$10,300		750	-3%	-6%	-4%
Ted Potter	$6,200	$7,100	$10,600	94	384	2%	-9%	-4%
Ryuko Tokimatsu	$6,200	$7,000	$10,300	106	468	0%	-2%	-1%
Thomas Bjorn	$6,200	$7,100	$10,300	792	715	-2%	-15%	-3%
Davis Love	$6,200	$7,000	$10,400	968	623	-2%	-4%	-4%
Shaun Micheel	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100		1148	-5%	-8%	-1%
Omar Uresti	$6,200	$7,000	$10,200		1250	-6%	-9%	-4%
John Daly	$6,200	$7,000	$10,200		987	-4%	-6%	-2%
Ryan Vermeer	$6,200	$7,000	$10,100		1365	-16%	-19%	-12%
Brian Smock	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1250	1%	-9%	-2%
Matt Dobyns	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1325	-3%	-13%	-6%
Rich Beem	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1375	-10%	-20%	-13%
Michael Block	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1338	-4%	-13%	-7%
Jason Schmuhl	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1350	-6%	-16%	-9%
Rich Berberian	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1350	-6%	-16%	-9%
David Muttitt	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1375	-10%	-20%	-13%
Zach J. Johnson	$6,100	$7,000	$10,300		1000	2%	-7%	-5%
Johan Kok	$6,100	$7,000	$10,100		1263	-1%	-10%	-4%
Craig Bowden	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1375	-3%	-20%	-13%
Jaysen Hansen	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1342	1%	-15%	-8%
Craig Hocknull	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1350	1%	-16%	-9%
Daniel Balin	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1338	3%	-13%	-7%
Bob Sowards	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1300	4%	-12%	-5%
Marty Jertson	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1350	1%	-16%	-9%
Matthew Borchert	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1390	-5%	-23%	-16%
Sean McCarty	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1265	5%	-11%	-4%
Shawn Warren	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1368	-3%	-20%	-13%
Ben Kern	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		1395	-6%	-24%	-16%

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend