PGA First Look: Quicken Loans National
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
Click here to follow Notorious on Twitter.
Event Preview
After two star-studded fields at the U.S. Open and the Travelers Championship, the PGA Tour could barely scrape together a field for this one. We only have one golfer ranked in the top ten in the world (Rickie Fowler) and only two more that are ranked in the top 25 (Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed). The field is a bit smaller than most events (120 golfers), which means a larger percentage of golfers will make the cut. Barring some unforeseen damage to the chalky picks, there will be a lot of 6/6 lineups on DraftKings, 8/8 lineups on FanDuel, and 7/7 lineups on FantasyDraft. We can look at this in two ways. We can play it safe and take risks to get all of our golfers through the cut. Or we can advocate a riskier approach since more golfers will be making the cut. No matter how you play it, you want to make sure to get your golfers through the cut.
This year’s edition of the Quicken Loans National will be held at the TPC Potomac in Maryland. This course used to be a stop on the PGA Tour, but it was never a popular destination. The course went through major renovations and hasn’t hosted anything resembling a PGA Tour event since 2013. In that year and the prior season, the course hosted the Mid-Atlantic Championship of the Web.com Tour. There are quite a few names in the field that have played this course competitively, but I’m placing little to no emphasis on course history this week. The important takeaway from those two Web.com events is how hard the course played. It was the toughest course on the Web.com Tour all season in 2012 and in 2013, only nine golfers broke par for the week.
TPC Potomac is a Par 70 that measures 7,139 yards. At first glance, the course seems short, but keep in mind that there are only two par fives on the scorecard. This course will actually play 300 yards longer than the one we saw last week (TPC River Highlands). Most of the par fours measure over 450 yards, so it may not play as short as you would think on first glance. From most descriptions of the course, it sounds like you need to keep it on the fairway and stay out of trouble. Many are expecting a lot of double and triple bogeys, so targeting the “grinders” may not be the worst idea. It’s always difficult to know what statistics we should target on courses that are new to the PGA Tour, but I will be focusing on strokes gained ball striking (off the tee + approach), birdie or better percentage, par four scoring, and bogey avoidance.
Cut Rule:Top 70 and ties will move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 70 golfers make the original cut.
Recent Winners of this Event:Billy Hurley III (2016), Troy Merritt (2015), Justin Rose (2014), Bill Haas (2013), Tiger Woods (2012)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Par 4 Scoring
5) Bogey Avoidance
Salaries & Vegas Odds
With TPC Potomac hosting this event for the first time, I did not include course history. It’s a good week to rely on recent form and course fit.
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds | FD Odds | FDRFT Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | $12,000 | $10,200 | $19,100 | 9 | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Patrick Reed | $11,100 | $9,800 | $17,800 | 17 | 13 | -50% | -50% | 0% |
| Justin Thomas | $10,900 | $9,700 | $18,000 | 12 | 12 | 33% | 33% | 0% |
| Marc Leishman | $9,800 | $8,500 | $16,400 | 35 | 23 | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| Bill Haas | $9,500 | $8,400 | $16,400 | 38 | 25 | -20% | 25% | -50% |
| J.B. Holmes | $9,400 | $8,500 | $15,600 | 50 | 37 | -83% | -83% | 8% |
| Kevin Chappell | $9,300 | $8,000 | $16,400 | 26 | 25 | 29% | 50% | -25% |
| Russell Henley | $9,200 | $7,300 | $15,800 | 55 | 34 | -25% | 38% | 0% |
| Tony Finau | $9,100 | $8,700 | $16,100 | 65 | 29 | 11% | -60% | 0% |
| Brendan Steele | $8,900 | $8,800 | $16,300 | 52 | 25 | 30% | -75% | 0% |
| Billy Horschel | $8,800 | $6,900 | $15,400 | 47 | 41 | -27% | 33% | 0% |
| Keegan Bradley | $8,700 | $7,600 | $14,900 | 101 | 50 | -67% | -67% | -11% |
| Byeong-Hun An | $8,600 | $7,600 | $14,900 | 58 | 50 | -46% | -58% | -6% |
| David Lingmerth | $8,500 | $7,200 | $16,100 | 99 | 30 | 36% | 50% | -13% |
| Xander Schauffele | $8,400 | $6,400 | $14,900 | 162 | 50 | -20% | 44% | 0% |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $8,300 | $7,100 | $14,500 | 126 | 65 | -50% | -26% | 0% |
| Danny Lee | $8,200 | $7,800 | $15,700 | 80 | 37 | 24% | -18% | -18% |
| David Hearn | $8,100 | $6,300 | $13,900 | 191 | 80 | -67% | 14% | 0% |
| Harris English | $8,000 | $6,800 | $13,800 | 110 | 83 | -63% | -41% | 3% |
| Jimmy Walker | $7,800 | $8,300 | $14,900 | 39 | 55 | -10% | -144% | -22% |
| Morgan Hoffmann | $7,800 | $6,400 | $13,700 | 155 | 85 | -70% | -6% | -3% |
| Bud Cauley | $7,700 | $7,500 | $15,400 | 98 | 42 | 27% | -7% | -14% |
| Martin Laird | $7,700 | $6,800 | $13,300 | 111 | 101 | -77% | -77% | -3% |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | $7,700 | $5,500 | $13,500 | 148 | 94 | -68% | 44% | -6% |
| Kyle Stanley | $7,600 | $7,000 | $15,300 | 94 | 41 | 44% | 30% | 13% |
| James Hahn | $7,600 | $6,100 | $14,800 | 66 | 57 | 8% | 45% | 0% |
| Billy Hurley | $7,600 | $5,700 | $13,000 | 125 | 107 | -80% | 22% | 0% |
| Boo Weekley | $7,600 | $5,600 | $13,200 | 277 | 104 | -68% | 31% | -2% |
| Graham DeLaet | $7,500 | $6,700 | $15,200 | 109 | 45 | 41% | 32% | 0% |
| Kevin Tway | $7,500 | $6,700 | $14,100 | 179 | 71 | 10% | -4% | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,500 | $7,300 | $15,500 | 30 | 37 | 59% | 25% | 8% |
| Kevin Streelman | $7,400 | $6,300 | $14,900 | 124 | 52 | 34% | 40% | -17% |
| Kevin Na | $7,400 | $6,800 | $14,000 | 67 | 79 | 9% | -32% | 0% |
| Jason Kokrak | $7,400 | $5,700 | $14,100 | 95 | 74 | 16% | 53% | -4% |
| Nick Watney | $7,400 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 344 | 133 | -75% | -100% | 5% |
| Brian Gay | $7,400 | $5,200 | $12,400 | 250 | 157 | -103% | 20% | -8% |
| Hudson Swafford | $7,300 | $5,700 | $13,000 | 85 | 114 | -24% | 21% | -2% |
| Trey Mullinax | $7,300 | $5,800 | $12,900 | 249 | 124 | -38% | 2% | -6% |
| Seung-Yul Noh | $7,300 | $6,200 | $13,000 | 195 | 114 | -24% | -24% | -2% |
| Seamus Power | $7,300 | $5,800 | $12,300 | 335 | 170 | -89% | -35% | 0% |
| Fabian Gomez | $7,300 | $5,500 | $12,100 | 158 | 195 | -108% | -17% | -5% |
| Daniel Summerhays | $7,200 | $6,500 | $13,500 | 88 | 89 | 17% | -25% | 0% |
| Robert Streb | $7,200 | $6,000 | $12,400 | 196 | 150 | -45% | -36% | -2% |
| Ben Martin | $7,200 | $5,900 | $12,800 | 233 | 129 | -31% | -17% | -6% |
| Aaron Baddeley | $7,200 | $5,000 | $12,600 | 136 | 145 | -43% | 31% | -7% |
| Ryan Brehm | $7,200 | $5,200 | $11,800 | 292 | 209 | -95% | -1% | 6% |
| Jonathan Randolph | $7,200 | $4,900 | $11,900 | 328 | 211 | -100% | 11% | -4% |
| Cameron Tringale | $7,100 | $6,100 | $12,800 | 236 | 137 | -19% | -36% | -10% |
| Michael Kim | $7,100 | $5,300 | $11,900 | 223 | 197 | -65% | -10% | 2% |
| Kelly Kraft | $7,100 | $5,100 | $12,000 | 185 | 209 | -71% | 2% | -6% |
| Rod Pampling | $7,100 | $4,900 | $11,400 | 168 | 271 | -117% | -11% | -1% |
| Johnson Wagner | $7,100 | $4,600 | $11,700 | 275 | 245 | -98% | 13% | -6% |
| Charles Howell | $7,000 | $6,500 | $14,100 | 70 | 75 | 47% | 0% | -8% |
| Wesley Bryan | $7,000 | $6,600 | $13,300 | 42 | 102 | 23% | -52% | -8% |
| Vaughn Taylor | $7,000 | $5,900 | $12,600 | 164 | 142 | -11% | -26% | -5% |
| Smylie Kaufman | $7,000 | $6,200 | $13,900 | 137 | 84 | 38% | 11% | -10% |
| Jonas Blixt | $7,000 | $5,800 | $12,400 | 263 | 157 | -23% | -25% | -8% |
| Ben Crane | $7,000 | $5,600 | $12,400 | 427 | 153 | -19% | -3% | -5% |
| Camilo Villegas | $7,000 | $5,600 | $12,100 | 348 | 203 | -53% | -33% | -11% |
| Robert Garrigus | $7,000 | $4,800 | $11,500 | 254 | 267 | -94% | -5% | -3% |
| Zac Blair | $7,000 | $5,500 | $11,700 | 256 | 242 | -77% | -42% | -4% |
| Patton Kizzire | $7,000 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 201 | 211 | -58% | -22% | -9% |
| Roberto Castro | $7,000 | $4,800 | $11,500 | 121 | 257 | -87% | -1% | 1% |
| Peter Malnati | $7,000 | $4,900 | $10,700 | 490 | 463 | -117% | -22% | 0% |
| Sam Horsfield | $7,000 | $4,500 | $10,900 | 321 | -113% | -1% | 0% | |
| Adam Hadwin | $6,900 | $7,600 | $14,300 | 53 | 69 | 62% | -108% | 0% |
| Luke List | $6,900 | $6,200 | $13,400 | 132 | 83 | 52% | 14% | 14% |
| Lucas Glover | $6,900 | $6,200 | $13,100 | 100 | 101 | 39% | -8% | 7% |
| Chris Kirk | $6,900 | $6,500 | $13,200 | 112 | 104 | 33% | -57% | -7% |
| Harold Varner | $6,900 | $5,800 | $12,900 | 135 | 125 | 20% | -2% | -10% |
| John Huh | $6,900 | $5,300 | $12,400 | 219 | 155 | 3% | 11% | -7% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $6,900 | $5,600 | $12,600 | 149 | 128 | 18% | 11% | 4% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $6,900 | $5,900 | $12,900 | 178 | 119 | 27% | -2% | 0% |
| Whee Kim | $6,900 | $5,900 | $12,400 | 172 | 139 | 12% | -23% | 3% |
| Scott Stallings | $6,900 | $5,300 | $12,000 | 288 | 188 | -14% | -4% | 3% |
| D.A. Points | $6,900 | $5,100 | $11,700 | 208 | 234 | -39% | -10% | -2% |
| Dominic Bozzelli | $6,900 | $5,800 | $12,200 | 151 | 179 | -9% | -38% | 0% |
| Blayne Barber | $6,900 | $5,000 | $11,700 | 227 | 239 | -41% | -7% | -3% |
| Julian Etulain | $6,900 | $5,300 | $11,900 | 423 | 222 | -35% | -24% | -10% |
| Jason Bohn | $6,900 | $4,500 | $10,500 | 475 | 550 | -80% | -6% | 0% |
| Sung Kang | $6,800 | $6,400 | $13,100 | 87 | 104 | 48% | -31% | 2% |
| Jim Herman | $6,800 | $5,000 | $12,900 | 82 | 121 | 40% | 44% | -2% |
| Grayson Murray | $6,800 | $6,200 | $13,600 | 144 | 91 | 56% | 3% | -6% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,800 | $6,100 | $12,400 | 68 | 152 | 23% | -48% | -3% |
| Sam Saunders | $6,800 | $5,300 | $11,900 | 314 | 196 | 4% | -8% | 4% |
| J.J. Henry | $6,800 | $5,000 | $11,700 | 436 | 221 | -9% | -1% | 2% |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $6,800 | $5,300 | $11,900 | 231 | 216 | -6% | -19% | -6% |
| Tim Wilkinson | $6,800 | $4,700 | $11,400 | 360 | 261 | -25% | 3% | 2% |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,800 | $4,700 | $11,500 | 232 | 266 | -26% | 2% | -2% |
| Ryan Blaum | $6,800 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 351 | 282 | -32% | -32% | 2% |
| Shawn Stefani | $6,800 | $4,700 | $11,400 | 472 | 276 | -30% | -1% | -2% |
| Brett Stegmaier | $6,800 | $4,800 | $11,200 | 396 | 279 | -31% | -8% | 3% |
| Matt Every | $6,800 | $4,800 | $11,700 | 893 | 258 | -23% | -2% | -11% |
| Andrew Loupe | $6,800 | $4,500 | $10,600 | 345 | 495 | -44% | -4% | -1% |
| Wyndham Clark | $6,800 | $4,500 | $10,600 | 484 | -43% | -4% | 0% | |
| Matt Jones | $6,700 | $5,900 | $13,300 | 222 | 95 | 60% | 19% | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | $6,700 | $5,400 | $12,700 | 203 | 124 | 47% | 26% | 6% |
| J.J. Spaun | $6,700 | $6,000 | $12,400 | 133 | 161 | 30% | -49% | -12% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $6,700 | $5,800 | $12,700 | 108 | 121 | 48% | 4% | 7% |
| Chris Stroud | $6,700 | $12,100 | 409 | 190 | 21% | 0% | -4% | |
| Troy Merritt | $6,700 | $5,300 | $12,300 | 282 | 163 | 28% | 4% | 1% |
| Bryce Molder | $6,700 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 270 | 199 | 17% | -16% | -4% |
| Greg Owen | $6,700 | $4,700 | $11,200 | 404 | 300 | -16% | -7% | -2% |
| Cody Gribble | $6,700 | $4,800 | $11,300 | 238 | 292 | -14% | -11% | -2% |
| Martin Flores | $6,700 | $4,500 | $10,600 | 286 | 524 | -23% | -5% | -2% |
| K.J. Choi | $6,700 | $5,300 | $11,200 | 258 | 301 | -17% | -56% | -3% |
| Greg Chalmers | $6,700 | $4,500 | $10,800 | 320 | 411 | -19% | -2% | 0% |
| Brandon Hagy | $6,600 | $5,000 | $12,400 | 281 | 161 | 38% | 23% | -12% |
| Jason Gore | $6,600 | $4,500 | $12,400 | 382 | 174 | 34% | 37% | -18% |
| Kyle Reifers | $6,600 | $5,300 | $12,100 | 217 | 187 | 31% | -3% | -1% |
| Cameron Percy | $6,600 | $4,700 | $11,700 | 376 | 217 | 19% | 16% | 3% |
| Ricky Barnes | $6,600 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 278 | 183 | 32% | -20% | 10% |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $6,600 | $5,000 | $11,800 | 311 | 228 | 16% | -5% | -5% |
| Alex Cejka | $6,600 | $5,000 | $11,300 | 237 | 291 | 0% | -24% | -1% |
| Michael Thompson | $6,600 | $4,600 | $11,700 | 240 | 245 | 12% | 13% | -6% |
| Curtis Luck | $6,600 | $5,100 | $11,700 | 410 | 250 | 9% | -17% | -9% |
| Spencer Levin | $6,600 | $4,900 | $11,700 | 369 | 247 | 10% | -3% | -8% |
| Gavin Green | $6,600 | $4,600 | $11,800 | 212 | 226 | 17% | 17% | -3% |
| Ryan Ruffels | $6,600 | $4,800 | $11,400 | 418 | 295 | -2% | -12% | -7% |
| Arjun Atwal | $6,600 | $4,500 | $10,500 | 1008 | 553 | -11% | -7% | -1% |
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2012 – 2016 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |