PGA First Look: Quicken Loans National
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
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Another week is in the books and we saw yet another Sunday comeback, this time by Bubba Watson. Paul Casey had a four-shot leading heading into the final round, but his ball striking forgot to show up and Watson made a big charge on the back nine to ship his second tournament of the season. The PGA Tour now heads to Maryland for the Quicken Loans National. Many of the big names on tour are starting to make their way overseas to prepare for the Open Championship, so be prepared for some weak fields over the next few weeks. While Tiger Woods and Rickie Fowler are both in the field this week, the talent level takes a significant hit after that. There are only eight of the top 50 golfers in the world playing in this tournament.
While this is the weakest field that we’ve seen in a while, we still have the opportunity to play fantasy golf, so life isn’t too bad. This event has switched venues a number of times and will be held at TPC Potomac for the second straight season. This course has held a number of PGA Tour and Web.com Tour events over the last 15 years, but I will only be looking at last year’s event when it comes to course history. We have yet another Par 70 on our hands, this one measuring 7,107 yards. While the length doesn’t seem daunting, six of the par fours measure over 450 yards and three of the par threes measure over 190 yards. Many of the holes require golfers to club down off the tee, which makes the course play even longer.
This isn’t your typical Par 70 where golfers will have 100 yard wedge shots on every hole. In fact, this was the toughest non-major on the PGA Tour last season. Many golfers said that the course could easily host a U.S. Open with only a few weeks notice, which is a testament to the course and the challenge that golfers will be facing this week. The key to success here last season was hitting fairways and greens, something Kyle Stanley (last year’s winner) does as well as anyone on tour. While putting and around the green play will matter when it comes to scoring, they don’t look like predictive statistics for this course. However, with only one year of data to work with, we could easily end up seeing the numbers play out differently this time around.
My plan this week is to simplify my process. I will be leaning heavily on ball strikers (preferably the accurate ones) and golfers that are in good form. This is one of the few weeks where I will have bogey avoidance as a bigger weight in my model than birdie or better percentage. Speaking of my model, premium members will have access to my weekly video where I walk through all of the different weights that go into it, look at Vegas line movement, look at the golfers that fit the course the best statistically, and hit on my favorite plays for the week for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The video is posted on Wednesday morning, so be on the lookout for that if you are a premium member.
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.
Recent Winners of this Event: Kyle Stanley (2017)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Good Drive Percentage
3) Bogey Avoidance
4) Birdie or Better %
5) Par 4 Scoring
Hole by Hole Breakdown
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | FDRFT Salary | OWGR | Odds | DK Odds | FD Odds | FDRFT Odds | Cuts | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | $11,700 | $12,600 | $18,800 | 8 | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 3 |
| Marc Leishman | $11,200 | $11,200 | $16,600 | 16 | 17 | -50% | 40% | 0% | 1/1 | 5 |
| Tiger Woods | $11,000 | $12,300 | $17,400 | 79 | 11 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Francesco Molinari | $10,600 | $10,700 | $16,100 | 15 | 19 | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Kyle Stanley | $10,200 | $10,100 | $16,000 | 38 | 22 | 0% | 58% | 0% | 1/1 | 1 |
| J.B. Holmes | $10,000 | $10,900 | $15,900 | 93 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 68 |
| Jimmy Walker | $9,600 | $11,800 | $15,600 | 60 | 29 | -14% | -167% | 0% | 0/1 | 85 |
| Kevin Na | $9,400 | $9,500 | $15,400 | 63 | 33 | -38% | 42% | -10% | 1/1 | 22 |
| Beau Hossler | $9,300 | $10,400 | $15,500 | 88 | 31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $9,200 | $10,300 | $15,300 | 29 | 32 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Joaquin Niemann | $9,000 | $10,000 | $14,900 | 222 | 39 | -18% | 0% | 7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Charles Howell | $8,900 | $11,400 | $15,700 | 59 | 28 | 42% | -75% | 0% | 1/1 | 2 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,800 | $9,300 | $15,000 | 128 | 40 | -8% | 39% | -8% | 1/1 | 22 |
| Kevin Streelman | $8,700 | $8,700 | $14,800 | 125 | 47 | -43% | 41% | -25% | 1/1 | 17 |
| Byeong-Hun An | $8,600 | $10,800 | $15,100 | 58 | 37 | 20% | -71% | 0% | 1/1 | 29 |
| Stewart Cink | $8,500 | $9,400 | $14,900 | 149 | 43 | -6% | 19% | -21% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Chesson Hadley | $8,400 | $9,900 | $14,500 | 62 | 42 | 6% | -14% | 20% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Jamie Lovemark | $8,300 | $9,400 | $14,800 | 94 | 49 | -17% | 0% | -31% | 0/0 | 500 |
| David Lingmerth | $8,200 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 230 | 47 | 0% | 67% | 5% | 1/1 | 5 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,100 | $10,200 | $14,700 | 41 | 41 | 25% | -36% | 21% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Kevin Tway | $8,000 | $9,300 | $14,300 | 163 | 56 | -14% | -4% | 0% | 1/1 | 55 |
| Danny Lee | $8,000 | $8,600 | $14,400 | 142 | 52 | -10% | 36% | 0% | 1/1 | 22 |
| Andrew Putnam | $7,900 | $9,800 | $14,200 | 148 | 57 | -9% | -67% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Billy Horschel | $7,900 | $9,600 | $14,800 | 89 | 45 | 22% | -6% | -13% | 1/1 | 26 |
| Anirban Lahiri | $7,800 | $8,200 | $13,900 | 112 | 77 | -20% | 39% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Bill Haas | $7,800 | $9,500 | $14,000 | 86 | 68 | -16% | -53% | -7% | 1/1 | 13 |
| Martin Laird | $7,800 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 107 | 62 | -8% | -8% | 7% | 1/1 | 3 |
| JT Poston | $7,700 | $9,000 | $12,900 | 312 | 102 | -39% | -34% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Keith Mitchell | $7,700 | $9,200 | $13,200 | 136 | 90 | -21% | -36% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Matt Jones | $7,600 | $8,500 | $12,900 | 304 | 94 | -23% | 3% | -3% | 1/1 | 38 |
| Ryan Blaum | $7,600 | $8,400 | $13,300 | 293 | 86 | -7% | 26% | 0% | 1/1 | 55 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,600 | $9,600 | $14,500 | 46 | 51 | 27% | -29% | -10% | 0/1 | 111 |
| Ryan Armour | $7,500 | $8,100 | $12,600 | 154 | 115 | -42% | 10% | -9% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Ryan Palmer | $7,500 | $8,900 | $12,600 | 133 | 112 | -33% | -47% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Nick Watney | $7,500 | $8,700 | $13,100 | 96 | 88 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1/1 | 13 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | $7,400 | $9,100 | $12,900 | 98 | 102 | -11% | -48% | -11% | 1/1 | 63 |
| Rory Sabbatini | $7,400 | $8,800 | $12,900 | 153 | 93 | 0% | -13% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Trey Mullinax | $7,400 | $8,200 | $13,000 | 166 | 91 | 3% | 29% | 0% | 1/1 | 46 |
| Brian Gay | $7,400 | $9,100 | $14,100 | 126 | 66 | 22% | -4% | -8% | 1/1 | 43 |
| Whee Kim | $7,300 | $7,200 | $12,000 | 137 | 162 | -70% | 26% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Sung Kang | $7,300 | $7,300 | $12,100 | 135 | 149 | -53% | 32% | 2% | 1/1 | 5 |
| Joel Dahmen | $7,300 | $8,300 | $12,200 | 382 | 147 | -50% | -33% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Troy Merritt | $7,300 | $8,200 | $12,500 | 330 | 122 | -23% | 0% | -2% | 0/1 | 96 |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | $7,300 | $8,500 | $13,700 | 183 | 78 | 23% | 18% | -3% | 0/1 | 85 |
| Adam Hadwin | $7,300 | $9,700 | $13,700 | 47 | 61 | 35% | -63% | 13% | 0/1 | 77 |
| Tom Hoge | $7,200 | $7,900 | $12,300 | 175 | 127 | -15% | 7% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Richy Werenski | $7,200 | $8,800 | $12,700 | 235 | 109 | 7% | -34% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Denny McCarthy | $7,200 | $8,300 | $12,800 | 410 | 108 | 9% | 7% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| James Hahn | $7,200 | $8,500 | $12,800 | 82 | 100 | 17% | 0% | 5% | 1/1 | 46 |
| Zac Blair | $7,100 | $7,800 | $11,900 | 509 | 182 | -48% | -9% | -9% | 1/1 | 29 |
| Alex Cejka | $7,100 | $7,400 | $12,000 | 265 | 161 | -34% | 20% | -5% | 0/1 | 92 |
| Fabian Gomez | $7,100 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 677 | 158 | -32% | -22% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| John Huh | $7,100 | $8,500 | $12,200 | 212 | 149 | -26% | -66% | -11% | 0/1 | 108 |
| Corey Conners | $7,100 | $8,900 | $12,200 | 338 | 140 | -16% | -93% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Sam Ryder | $7,100 | $7,900 | $12,100 | 271 | 137 | -14% | 0% | 8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Johnson Wagner | $7,100 | $8,300 | $12,600 | 355 | 113 | 10% | 0% | -5% | 1/1 | 5 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $7,000 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 295 | 191 | -37% | -37% | -5% | 1/1 | 26 |
| Kelly Kraft | $7,000 | $7,600 | $11,700 | 176 | 186 | -32% | 4% | -1% | 1/1 | 43 |
| Harold Varner | $7,000 | $7,900 | $11,700 | 168 | 176 | -26% | -26% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Ted Potter | $7,000 | $7,700 | $11,900 | 84 | 169 | -21% | 3% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Peter Malnati | $7,000 | $8,100 | $12,300 | 618 | 137 | 2% | -8% | -6% | 1/1 | 38 |
| Sam Saunders | $7,000 | $7,900 | $12,400 | 194 | 130 | 4% | 4% | -12% | 1/1 | 61 |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,000 | $7,800 | $12,400 | 147 | 123 | 12% | 26% | -2% | 0/1 | 108 |
| Harris English | $7,000 | $8,000 | $12,600 | 221 | 114 | 19% | 15% | -7% | 1/1 | 22 |
| Matt Every | $6,900 | $7,000 | $11,200 | 620 | 258 | -45% | 7% | 1% | 0/1 | 96 |
| Doug Ghim | $6,900 | $7,200 | $11,300 | 257 | -43% | -1% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Stephan Jaeger | $6,900 | $7,500 | $11,400 | 238 | 244 | -42% | -12% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Chris Stroud | $6,900 | $7,100 | $11,600 | 203 | 214 | -32% | 11% | -2% | 0/1 | 114 |
| Blayne Barber | $6,900 | $7,400 | $11,700 | 470 | 205 | -28% | 1% | -12% | 0/1 | 85 |
| Tom Lovelady | $6,900 | $7,600 | $11,700 | 317 | 202 | -26% | -5% | -11% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Andrew Landry | $6,900 | $7,400 | $12,200 | 72 | 128 | 17% | 36% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Jason Kokrak | $6,900 | $7,700 | $12,400 | 134 | 118 | 26% | 32% | 2% | 1/1 | 26 |
| Seamus Power | $6,900 | $8,000 | $12,600 | 309 | 108 | 37% | 24% | 5% | 1/1 | 38 |
| Doc Redman | $6,800 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 289 | -41% | -13% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Derek Fathauer | $6,800 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 302 | 270 | -35% | -19% | -2% | 1/1 | 68 |
| Dominic Bozzelli | $6,800 | $7,700 | $11,200 | 290 | 261 | -30% | -35% | -1% | 0/1 | 108 |
| Robert Streb | $6,800 | $7,300 | $11,300 | 273 | 238 | -20% | 1% | 1% | 1/1 | 55 |
| Shawn Stefani | $6,800 | $7,600 | $11,500 | 385 | 224 | -18% | -12% | -1% | 1/1 | 55 |
| Scott Brown | $6,800 | $7,100 | $11,700 | 170 | 193 | -8% | 18% | -8% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Michael Kim | $6,800 | $7,100 | $11,800 | 435 | 191 | -7% | 19% | -10% | 1/1 | 35 |
| Michael Thompson | $6,800 | $8,500 | $11,700 | 308 | 174 | 5% | -84% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Scott Stallings | $6,800 | $7,900 | $12,300 | 159 | 124 | 31% | 11% | 4% | 1/1 | 38 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | $6,700 | $7,200 | $11,100 | 444 | 267 | -19% | -8% | -1% | 1/1 | 13 |
| David Hearn | $6,700 | $7,700 | $11,300 | 441 | 260 | -14% | -34% | -6% | 1/1 | 73 |
| Jonas Blixt | $6,700 | $7,000 | $11,300 | 246 | 239 | -8% | 11% | 0% | 0/1 | 111 |
| Cody Gribble | $6,700 | $7,900 | $11,900 | 386 | 175 | 14% | -25% | -4% | 0/1 | 92 |
| Brandon Harkins | $6,700 | $7,900 | $11,900 | 242 | 157 | 22% | -14% | 4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Robert Garrigus | $6,700 | $7,700 | $12,000 | 243 | 155 | 23% | 10% | 0% | 1/1 | 29 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $6,700 | $8,300 | $12,200 | 216 | 149 | 25% | -38% | -9% | 0/1 | 92 |
| Tyler Duncan | $6,700 | $7,900 | $12,300 | 381 | 141 | 29% | -4% | -11% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Ben Crane | $6,700 | $8,600 | $12,400 | 310 | 125 | 37% | -44% | -6% | 1/1 | 38 |
| Jason Gore | $6,600 | $7,000 | $11,000 | 519 | 283 | -12% | -2% | -2% | 1/1 | 13 |
| Dylan Meyer | $6,600 | $7,900 | $11,300 | 240 | 1% | -60% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| Benjamin Silverman | $6,600 | $7,500 | $11,600 | 236 | 209 | 9% | -2% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Nick Taylor | $6,600 | $7,600 | $11,700 | 244 | 201 | 12% | -4% | -9% | 1/1 | 29 |
| Chad Campbell | $6,600 | $7,700 | $11,700 | 332 | 190 | 16% | -8% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | $6,600 | $7,700 | $11,800 | 298 | 189 | 17% | -7% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Abraham Ancer | $6,600 | $8,400 | $11,700 | 200 | 176 | 22% | -67% | 3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Billy Hurley | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,100 | 511 | 327 | -9% | -7% | 4% | 1/1 | 63 |
| Jonathan Randolph | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,800 | 378 | 327 | -9% | -7% | -1% | 1/1 | 29 |
| Adam Schenk | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 360 | 305 | -8% | -6% | -4% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Rob Oppenheim | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 314 | 298 | -7% | -5% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Martin Piller | $6,500 | $7,000 | $10,900 | 257 | 291 | -6% | -4% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Brian Stuard | $6,500 | $7,800 | $11,000 | 267 | 270 | -2% | -49% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Ethan Tracy | $6,500 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 520 | 265 | 1% | -17% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Martin Flores | $6,500 | $7,200 | $11,200 | 344 | 261 | 3% | -4% | -1% | 1/1 | 55 |
| D.A. Points | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 423 | 490 | -6% | -12% | -3% | 1/1 | 65 |
| Rod Pampling | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 416 | 482 | -5% | -11% | -2% | 0/1 | 77 |
| Xin-Jun Zhang | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,300 | 364 | 469 | -4% | -10% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | $6,400 | $7,000 | $10,400 | 397 | -3% | -9% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 | |
| J.J. Henry | $6,400 | $7,100 | $10,900 | 486 | 282 | 5% | -5% | 1% | 1/1 | 68 |
| Talor Gooch | $6,400 | $7,000 | $11,400 | 223 | 232 | 18% | 13% | -1% | 0/0 | 500 |
| Bronson Burgoon | $6,400 | $7,400 | $11,400 | 406 | 213 | 21% | -1% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2013 – 2017 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |